Everything you write here makes a lot of sense, but the weekly in the chain is Trump’s and his administration’s, unpredictability. Our Prime Minister could negotiate the best deal in the world and it might only last until next Thursday. We are dealing with an administration who, for the foreseeable future has proven they will not honour their promises and will change any deal on a whim just for media effect.
If we agreed to put any American alcohol back on the shelves, we need to consider the impact it will have on Canadian producers who have scaled up to meet the demand, and we need to be prepared to restock very slowly with everything in place to shut it right down again. And we should definitely do this if there is any reneging whatsoever.
If I’ve thought of this, I’m 100% sure that Mark Carney and his team have too.
A bargaining chip is only as good as the willingness of the other party to honour the promise.
I've said this before and will continue to repeat it:
- I don't think Carney, LeBlanc, etc. are actually truly negotiating a short-run deal. I don't mean this to imply that they are wasting time or not putting in constructive effort -- that's an important thing to be doing here, for both optics to Canadians (for credibility), and for WTO filing down the road (for improper American trade sanctions, etc.). What I think they are doing is something like this:
- If we get a comprehensive agreement to substantially avoid new tariffs and reduce old ones, in exchange for Canada reducing some of our "irritants" to them -- then Great!!! Hey, it always COULD happen with Trump -- but as many of us also note, that likely means an agreement exists for two days until somebody else pays him $million or so to take action against us.
- What I think Carney's real goal here is to literally HAVE that happen -- Trump screws us after making a deal -- The whole world will see it (again), but will also see how Canada tried to handle all of this in good faith. Very important right now -- everybody around the world is watching this trade dispute (seriously). Not because they believe Trump will act in good faith to us (or them, in turn), but really to see how the whole thing plays out. He screws us (again), and pretty much nobody will waste time doing any form of comprehensive trade agreement with Greer/Trump, etc. But Canada will look VERY GOOD in how it handles trade matters. I seriously believe Carney figures this is the likely outcome, and is really using it as (ahem) ADVERTISING to the world to say "deal with us, don't bother with USA."
- this is like a game of chess - you might sacrifice a pawn, but that's really to position yourself better down the road. Carney thinks 25-50 years ahead. Trump thinks about 10 minutes ahead (or at least until his next golf game).
And I do think we want to be cautious not to give Trump/Republicans an economic win before the midterms. There is some strategy to say "wait him Trump out until after the midterms."
Grant, I think there’s a hell of an interesting argument in this.
I’m not sure I’d go as far as saying Carney *wants* Trump to break an agreement.
But I absolutely believe Carney is thinking beyond whatever gets signed this month.
Canada is negotiating with Washington... **but the rest of the world is watching the negotiation.**
If Canada behaves predictably, negotiates in good faith, honours agreements and keeps building relationships elsewhere while Washington keeps changing the rules, that contrast becomes valuable all by itself.
Because countries and companies don't just want the cheapest trading partner.
They want a **reliable** one.
That’s where your chess analogy lands for me.
The immediate tariff fight matters, but the larger game is making Canada a country the world increasingly wants to do business with.
Trump may be trying to extract concessions from Canada today.
**Carney may be selling Canada to the world for the next generation.**
Fred, yes - you stated what I was trying to convey ;-)
I had not meant that we WANT Trump to do Trumpish things -- if they actually do a legitimately good deal, then great. I should have said, "Carney et al EXPECT him to screw us" - token deal, then the next day find some other reason to tariff us under some other section of their code that they haven't used yet.
And I completely agree with your final sentence -- this isn't just about now/current times, Carney is setting a direction with the world that will benefit us for at least the next generation(s).
And as long as our next PM doesn't screw this all up.
I was thinking the same thing too. Wait until the midterms are all counted and everyone that is elected is sworn into Congress and the Senate. Then deal with them. Iran seems to be playing the same sort of game, waiting for the elections so that a saner team will be elected.
Fred, another spot-on article. My comments in some of your previous articles described my utter contempt for Trump. Andrew Coyne in the Globe & Mail recently described Trump as "insane, incompetent, corrupt, treasonous, bottomlessly ignorant," and likening him to a "Batman villain" and a "modern-day Nero." He's also cruel, a racist, and quite possibly a Russian agent.
Having said all that, the task that Mark Carney has ahead is truly monumental. On the one hand, he has to deal with Canada's premiers, all but two (Smith & Moe) who aren't willing to put American booze back on our shelves until we get a good deal. (Wab Kinew: No CUSMA, no boozema)
However, can we trust that this buffoon in the White House will unequivocally respect any agreement? I think not. That's why, in my humble opinion, we should patiently wait until after November the third. If recent polls continue their anti-Trump trajectory, the Trump regime will suffer a massive defeat and hopefully lose both the House and the Senate. One can only hope!
I'm not suggesting that negotiations will suddenly become a piece of cake, but when sanity returns to Washington, our demands will certainly have a chance to be considered seriously and respectfully.
Jerry, I think you’ve put your finger on Carney’s biggest problem.
He isn’t simply negotiating the terms of an agreement.
He has to calculate the **reliability of the signature on the other side of the table.**
That changes everything.
I’m less convinced Canada can afford to simply wait for American politics to sort itself out.
We still have industries, workers and businesses dealing with this mess right now.
But neither should we surrender useful leverage for promises that can disappear with the next announcement from Washington.
That’s why Linda’s point above about **sequencing** struck me.
Deliver something concrete. Canada responds.
Honour the agreement. Canada responds again.
Break it? The leverage comes straight back.
Whatever happens in American politics, I think Carney’s larger job is making sure Canada comes out of this **less dependent on Washington keeping its word than we were going in.**
That may turn out to be the most important deal of all.
Long time negotiator here, I would be very cautious about making concessions with a party as unpredictable as Trump and his admin. You end up negotiating with yourself. There is no respect for signed agreements or International Law from this Trump Regime.
Trump signed CUSMA and rails at the dairy provisions he does not understand. Protecting the safety and sovereignty of our food supply is a critical issue.
The safety of the USA food supply is questionable. We need to protect our dairy and farmers. We need to continue to protect our strategic industries. The Canadian labelling legislation Mark Gerretsen is proposing needs to be fast tracked.
Concrete change needs to actually be delivered before softening on booze. For domestic politics, Canadians are proud that their consumer boycott is effective. Putting USA booze from stockpiles back on shelves will not result in new orders and then, pressure on CUSMA is at risk. Consumers will not return. Needs to be sequenced not a precursor to CUSMA.
Don’t give up the leverage first and hope the promised concession follows.
Get concrete, measurable change... then respond.
I also think your point about Canadian consumers matters enormously.
Something changed here that goes beyond government policy.
Canadians discovered that our purchasing decisions have economic weight, while Canadian producers stepped up to fill some of that space.
That shouldn’t simply be unwound because somebody wants a deal announced.
And after watching signed agreements become negotiable whenever Washington changes its mood, Canada has learned a lesson I don’t think we’ll soon forget...
Not only is the safety of the US food supply questionable I believe we re going to see a lot more issues in the coming months, resulting from all those cut regulations and corners, although no doubt the information sources will be stifled. But the effect on the world traders will also be profound: American products( not just food but things like cosmetics, drugs,anything requiring sanitation) will be seen as contaminated and dangerous to everyone. And that effect will last. The 21st century will now go down a very dark road for “America”.
Screw Trump. Screw their alcohol and dairy industries. Screw their tarrifs. Screw the maga assholes, there and in Canada. Take your fucking NAFTA (cusma my ass) and shove it in Trump's burger hole. Don't concede a fucking thing. NOT A FUCKING THING. No one in their entire administration can be trusted to do anything but the worst. Fuck them all.
They don't want to negotiate. They are trying to intimidate us so we'll accept all their terms. They are nothing but global gangsters and terrorists in every way, including financial terrorists. This is a typical gangster shakedown. And in the end, what they really want is our entire country under their control so they can help themselves to our water and resources.
Exactly. And I think that may be the part Washington is missing.
A government can remove a ban. A liquor board can put American bottles back on the shelf.
**Neither one can order Canadians to buy them.**
Canadian producers have gained customers, people have discovered alternatives from Canada and elsewhere, and some buying habits may have changed permanently.
That’s what makes this bigger than a temporary boycott.
Trump may eventually negotiate American booze back onto Canadian shelves.
**He can’t negotiate it back into Canadian shopping carts.**
even if the US booze goes back on the shelves, they can't make anyone buy it. I know I won't buy anything made in the US any time soon. When do you think the Trump regime will start demanding that Canadians vacation in the US again? That is probably going to be on their list of "irritants" at so point. Hoekstra said in an interview that the Canada had a travel ban to the US. The interviewer said there was no such ban, it was individual choice. I made that choice the day after he was elected.
Give US nothing ! Every country on earth should find different trade partners. Give America nothing !! (and we are American ) .. because ever deal made, keeps trump seated ! Fu** him !
Everything you write here makes a lot of sense, but the weekly in the chain is Trump’s and his administration’s, unpredictability. Our Prime Minister could negotiate the best deal in the world and it might only last until next Thursday. We are dealing with an administration who, for the foreseeable future has proven they will not honour their promises and will change any deal on a whim just for media effect.
If we agreed to put any American alcohol back on the shelves, we need to consider the impact it will have on Canadian producers who have scaled up to meet the demand, and we need to be prepared to restock very slowly with everything in place to shut it right down again. And we should definitely do this if there is any reneging whatsoever.
If I’ve thought of this, I’m 100% sure that Mark Carney and his team have too.
A bargaining chip is only as good as the willingness of the other party to honour the promise.
Exactly, Carrick.
That’s the part that worries me too.
We can negotiate brilliantly and still be dealing with a partner who may rewrite the rules next Thursday.
And your point about Canadian producers is important.
They stepped up when American products disappeared. We shouldn’t shove them aside the minute Washington wants back in.
If the booze returns, I’d want it returned cautiously... with the ability to shut that tap off again the moment another agreement gets tossed aside.
Carney’s challenge isn’t just getting a good deal.
**It’s making sure Canada never again depends on the deal being honoured.**
I totally agree with you
I've said this before and will continue to repeat it:
- I don't think Carney, LeBlanc, etc. are actually truly negotiating a short-run deal. I don't mean this to imply that they are wasting time or not putting in constructive effort -- that's an important thing to be doing here, for both optics to Canadians (for credibility), and for WTO filing down the road (for improper American trade sanctions, etc.). What I think they are doing is something like this:
- If we get a comprehensive agreement to substantially avoid new tariffs and reduce old ones, in exchange for Canada reducing some of our "irritants" to them -- then Great!!! Hey, it always COULD happen with Trump -- but as many of us also note, that likely means an agreement exists for two days until somebody else pays him $million or so to take action against us.
- What I think Carney's real goal here is to literally HAVE that happen -- Trump screws us after making a deal -- The whole world will see it (again), but will also see how Canada tried to handle all of this in good faith. Very important right now -- everybody around the world is watching this trade dispute (seriously). Not because they believe Trump will act in good faith to us (or them, in turn), but really to see how the whole thing plays out. He screws us (again), and pretty much nobody will waste time doing any form of comprehensive trade agreement with Greer/Trump, etc. But Canada will look VERY GOOD in how it handles trade matters. I seriously believe Carney figures this is the likely outcome, and is really using it as (ahem) ADVERTISING to the world to say "deal with us, don't bother with USA."
- this is like a game of chess - you might sacrifice a pawn, but that's really to position yourself better down the road. Carney thinks 25-50 years ahead. Trump thinks about 10 minutes ahead (or at least until his next golf game).
And I do think we want to be cautious not to give Trump/Republicans an economic win before the midterms. There is some strategy to say "wait him Trump out until after the midterms."
Grant, I think there’s a hell of an interesting argument in this.
I’m not sure I’d go as far as saying Carney *wants* Trump to break an agreement.
But I absolutely believe Carney is thinking beyond whatever gets signed this month.
Canada is negotiating with Washington... **but the rest of the world is watching the negotiation.**
If Canada behaves predictably, negotiates in good faith, honours agreements and keeps building relationships elsewhere while Washington keeps changing the rules, that contrast becomes valuable all by itself.
Because countries and companies don't just want the cheapest trading partner.
They want a **reliable** one.
That’s where your chess analogy lands for me.
The immediate tariff fight matters, but the larger game is making Canada a country the world increasingly wants to do business with.
Trump may be trying to extract concessions from Canada today.
**Carney may be selling Canada to the world for the next generation.**
Fred, yes - you stated what I was trying to convey ;-)
I had not meant that we WANT Trump to do Trumpish things -- if they actually do a legitimately good deal, then great. I should have said, "Carney et al EXPECT him to screw us" - token deal, then the next day find some other reason to tariff us under some other section of their code that they haven't used yet.
And I completely agree with your final sentence -- this isn't just about now/current times, Carney is setting a direction with the world that will benefit us for at least the next generation(s).
And as long as our next PM doesn't screw this all up.
You both have done an exemplary job of "outside the box" creativity.
I, for one, had not gone that far in my thinking.
Kudos and thank you.
I was thinking the same thing too. Wait until the midterms are all counted and everyone that is elected is sworn into Congress and the Senate. Then deal with them. Iran seems to be playing the same sort of game, waiting for the elections so that a saner team will be elected.
Fred, another spot-on article. My comments in some of your previous articles described my utter contempt for Trump. Andrew Coyne in the Globe & Mail recently described Trump as "insane, incompetent, corrupt, treasonous, bottomlessly ignorant," and likening him to a "Batman villain" and a "modern-day Nero." He's also cruel, a racist, and quite possibly a Russian agent.
Having said all that, the task that Mark Carney has ahead is truly monumental. On the one hand, he has to deal with Canada's premiers, all but two (Smith & Moe) who aren't willing to put American booze back on our shelves until we get a good deal. (Wab Kinew: No CUSMA, no boozema)
However, can we trust that this buffoon in the White House will unequivocally respect any agreement? I think not. That's why, in my humble opinion, we should patiently wait until after November the third. If recent polls continue their anti-Trump trajectory, the Trump regime will suffer a massive defeat and hopefully lose both the House and the Senate. One can only hope!
I'm not suggesting that negotiations will suddenly become a piece of cake, but when sanity returns to Washington, our demands will certainly have a chance to be considered seriously and respectfully.
Jerry, I think you’ve put your finger on Carney’s biggest problem.
He isn’t simply negotiating the terms of an agreement.
He has to calculate the **reliability of the signature on the other side of the table.**
That changes everything.
I’m less convinced Canada can afford to simply wait for American politics to sort itself out.
We still have industries, workers and businesses dealing with this mess right now.
But neither should we surrender useful leverage for promises that can disappear with the next announcement from Washington.
That’s why Linda’s point above about **sequencing** struck me.
Deliver something concrete. Canada responds.
Honour the agreement. Canada responds again.
Break it? The leverage comes straight back.
Whatever happens in American politics, I think Carney’s larger job is making sure Canada comes out of this **less dependent on Washington keeping its word than we were going in.**
That may turn out to be the most important deal of all.
Long time negotiator here, I would be very cautious about making concessions with a party as unpredictable as Trump and his admin. You end up negotiating with yourself. There is no respect for signed agreements or International Law from this Trump Regime.
Trump signed CUSMA and rails at the dairy provisions he does not understand. Protecting the safety and sovereignty of our food supply is a critical issue.
The safety of the USA food supply is questionable. We need to protect our dairy and farmers. We need to continue to protect our strategic industries. The Canadian labelling legislation Mark Gerretsen is proposing needs to be fast tracked.
Concrete change needs to actually be delivered before softening on booze. For domestic politics, Canadians are proud that their consumer boycott is effective. Putting USA booze from stockpiles back on shelves will not result in new orders and then, pressure on CUSMA is at risk. Consumers will not return. Needs to be sequenced not a precursor to CUSMA.
Linda, your negotiator experience shows here.
The word I’m taking from this is **sequencing**.
Don’t give up the leverage first and hope the promised concession follows.
Get concrete, measurable change... then respond.
I also think your point about Canadian consumers matters enormously.
Something changed here that goes beyond government policy.
Canadians discovered that our purchasing decisions have economic weight, while Canadian producers stepped up to fill some of that space.
That shouldn’t simply be unwound because somebody wants a deal announced.
And after watching signed agreements become negotiable whenever Washington changes its mood, Canada has learned a lesson I don’t think we’ll soon forget...
**Diversification isn’t retaliation anymore. It’s insurance.**
Canada already repealed Digital Services Tax and that concession delivered little.
Diversification is sovereign sustainablilty.
The list of “irritants” from Trump to be addressed before CUSMA negotiations keeps growing.
Sometimes going slowly and waiting out an irresponsible party is the best strategy.
PM Carney is clever like a fox and he will not rush
Linda, that Digital Services Tax example is exactly why I keep coming back to sequencing.
We’ve already tried making a concession and hoping it creates goodwill.
Goodwill isn’t much of a negotiating currency when the list of demands keeps growing.
And I love your phrase: **“Diversification is sovereign sustainability.”**
That’s really the bigger Canadian project now.
Negotiate with the Americans? Absolutely.
But build new markets, strengthen Canadian industries and reduce the damage Washington can do to us at the same time.
Then Carney doesn’t have to rush.
**The less desperate Canada is for a deal, the better deal Canada can make.**
Think “strategic patience”!
Not only is the safety of the US food supply questionable I believe we re going to see a lot more issues in the coming months, resulting from all those cut regulations and corners, although no doubt the information sources will be stifled. But the effect on the world traders will also be profound: American products( not just food but things like cosmetics, drugs,anything requiring sanitation) will be seen as contaminated and dangerous to everyone. And that effect will last. The 21st century will now go down a very dark road for “America”.
Agree completely. Except there are 35 sovereign countries in America and this is limited to USA.
Why I used quotes.Their exceptionalism is so imaginary. But I should make it clearer out of respect fot the others.
Screw Trump. Screw their alcohol and dairy industries. Screw their tarrifs. Screw the maga assholes, there and in Canada. Take your fucking NAFTA (cusma my ass) and shove it in Trump's burger hole. Don't concede a fucking thing. NOT A FUCKING THING. No one in their entire administration can be trusted to do anything but the worst. Fuck them all.
Gary, I’m getting the subtle impression you’re not quite ready to put the bourbon back on the shelves. 😂
But underneath the sentiment, you’re making the same point several people here are making...
**why surrender leverage before the other side has delivered anything trustworthy in return?**
That’s where I land too.
I’m not against negotiating. That’s Carney’s job.
But concessions should buy something **real, measurable and enforceable**
not another promise that lasts until somebody in Washington changes his mind.
Canada has spent decades assuming the relationship itself was our security.
I think we’re learning that **our ability to say NO may be just as important.**
They don't want to negotiate. They are trying to intimidate us so we'll accept all their terms. They are nothing but global gangsters and terrorists in every way, including financial terrorists. This is a typical gangster shakedown. And in the end, what they really want is our entire country under their control so they can help themselves to our water and resources.
The Canadians learned. The US DIDN T. arrogant fools.
What Trump and the American alcohol industry don't understand,is that Canadian's aren't going to purchase their booze- ban or not.
Exactly. And I think that may be the part Washington is missing.
A government can remove a ban. A liquor board can put American bottles back on the shelf.
**Neither one can order Canadians to buy them.**
Canadian producers have gained customers, people have discovered alternatives from Canada and elsewhere, and some buying habits may have changed permanently.
That’s what makes this bigger than a temporary boycott.
Trump may eventually negotiate American booze back onto Canadian shelves.
**He can’t negotiate it back into Canadian shopping carts.**
even if the US booze goes back on the shelves, they can't make anyone buy it. I know I won't buy anything made in the US any time soon. When do you think the Trump regime will start demanding that Canadians vacation in the US again? That is probably going to be on their list of "irritants" at so point. Hoekstra said in an interview that the Canada had a travel ban to the US. The interviewer said there was no such ban, it was individual choice. I made that choice the day after he was elected.
Give US nothing ! Every country on earth should find different trade partners. Give America nothing !! (and we are American ) .. because ever deal made, keeps trump seated ! Fu** him !