There are grownup diplomats in the world who fix things. Iran will ship oil bought in yuan to China, who will be the unofficial distributor of oil that goes to Asia.
But that is, by nature, diplomacy. It is dialogue about mutually acceptable outcomes achieved by cooperation.
The fact that the war has made the Iranian-Chinese energy axis predominant over the dwindling petrodollar is a plan. It is well underway over the last few weeks. Nobody sees fighting as the grownup solution. None of the grownups do. Toy soldiers go to the kiddies table.
What did the US think Iran was going to do? Bibi didn't care. Iran has closed the strait before. Someone should have noticed and reminded Trump that they were capable of doing it again. Not that he would listen, but, hey you gotta try. It increasing looks to me like the only way to fix this is to get rid of the orange bum.
It would appear that the Persians learned an important lesson from the Battle of Thermopylae. You would think that the U.S. would have learned the same lesson from Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan...but no...they continue to beat their chests and continue with a frontier mindset.
Another very informative, & in some ways, exciting post Fred. Thank you :)
The view from the kiddies table is not clear.
There are grownup diplomats in the world who fix things. Iran will ship oil bought in yuan to China, who will be the unofficial distributor of oil that goes to Asia.
There are grownups in the room…
But Iran locked the door.
China’s still getting oil.
Others negotiate case-by-case.
And currency is now part of the leverage.
That’s not diplomacy solving a problem.
That’s a system being rewritten in real time.
But that is, by nature, diplomacy. It is dialogue about mutually acceptable outcomes achieved by cooperation.
The fact that the war has made the Iranian-Chinese energy axis predominant over the dwindling petrodollar is a plan. It is well underway over the last few weeks. Nobody sees fighting as the grownup solution. None of the grownups do. Toy soldiers go to the kiddies table.
You’re right Steve... it is diplomacy.
But it’s not maintenance diplomacy.
It’s rewrite diplomacy.
Different game.
What did the US think Iran was going to do? Bibi didn't care. Iran has closed the strait before. Someone should have noticed and reminded Trump that they were capable of doing it again. Not that he would listen, but, hey you gotta try. It increasing looks to me like the only way to fix this is to get rid of the orange bum.
You’re right Keith that Iran has used the Strait as leverage before.
What’s different this time is the timing.
Strikes happen → Strait closes → global shipping hesitates → oil spikes.
That sequence isn’t accidental.
And the bigger issue now isn’t just the closure…
It’s that other players are stepping in behind the scenes, which makes it much harder to unwind.
This isn’t just a regional move anymore.
It would appear that the Persians learned an important lesson from the Battle of Thermopylae. You would think that the U.S. would have learned the same lesson from Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan...but no...they continue to beat their chests and continue with a frontier mindset.
Good analogy.
Thermopylae showed what a small force can do in the right location.
Hormuz is the modern version of that... except now it’s not just soldiers…
It’s shipping lanes, oil flow, and global markets.
Control the choke point, and you don’t need to win the whole war.
Excellent commentary, thank you Fred