Elections are expensive and Carney has a majority now and 4 years of run time to see new peojects being developed. Significant new economic investments and activity and if I was a betting man a renewed CAMUSA this fall including the removal of all tariffs. Trump's economy is in a dhambles and the auto industry in the US is demanding the removal of tariffs and the return of stability to the industry provided by CAMUSA. So Carney not doing a bad deal will be the master strategist. No need for an election to slow the momentum. Too much work still to be done.
And honestly, it’s probably closer to how Carney himself is thinking.
A snap election is the pure strategist move.
But governing through the chaos and delivering results is the statesman move.
If CUSMA gets renewed this fall, tariffs get rolled back, and investment momentum keeps building… the Conservatives lose their strongest weapon, which is economic frustration.
And you’re right about the auto sector.
Stability matters more to that industry than ideology. Supply chains hate uncertainty more than almost anything.
I still think the danger window for the Liberals is inflation and rising costs over the next 12–18 months. That’s the clock ticking in the background of all this.
But if Carney can navigate the trade negotiations without folding into a bad deal, while new projects and investment start visibly landing in Canada…
then the political map could look very different by the next election.
Agree with most of what is said here - except with the early election call. Carney now has his majority, albeit slim, let’s see what he can accomplish with it. If he continues building relationships, great. But if he calls another election it might be seen as trying to take advantage of a political situation and people on the fence may not like it. Besides, if Pierre keeps shooting himself in the foot, why not keep letting him do it?
Elections are expensive and Carney has a majority now and 4 years of run time to see new peojects being developed. Significant new economic investments and activity and if I was a betting man a renewed CAMUSA this fall including the removal of all tariffs. Trump's economy is in a dhambles and the auto industry in the US is demanding the removal of tariffs and the return of stability to the industry provided by CAMUSA. So Carney not doing a bad deal will be the master strategist. No need for an election to slow the momentum. Too much work still to be done.
That’s actually a very strong argument, Larry.
And honestly, it’s probably closer to how Carney himself is thinking.
A snap election is the pure strategist move.
But governing through the chaos and delivering results is the statesman move.
If CUSMA gets renewed this fall, tariffs get rolled back, and investment momentum keeps building… the Conservatives lose their strongest weapon, which is economic frustration.
And you’re right about the auto sector.
Stability matters more to that industry than ideology. Supply chains hate uncertainty more than almost anything.
I still think the danger window for the Liberals is inflation and rising costs over the next 12–18 months. That’s the clock ticking in the background of all this.
But if Carney can navigate the trade negotiations without folding into a bad deal, while new projects and investment start visibly landing in Canada…
then the political map could look very different by the next election.
That’s where the real test begins.
Agree with most of what is said here - except with the early election call. Carney now has his majority, albeit slim, let’s see what he can accomplish with it. If he continues building relationships, great. But if he calls another election it might be seen as trying to take advantage of a political situation and people on the fence may not like it. Besides, if Pierre keeps shooting himself in the foot, why not keep letting him do it?
Pierre haha
That’s a completely fair point, Kevin.
And politically, perception matters just as much as strategy.
A snap election might make sense on paper… but voters don’t always reward “smart” political timing.
Sometimes they punish it if it feels manipulative or unnecessary.
Especially right now when people are exhausted.
I think your last point is the one that matters most...
Why interrupt your opponent while they’re damaging themselves?
Poilievre’s biggest problem at the moment isn’t Liberal attacks.
It’s that parts of his own coalition keep pulling him into positions that don’t play well outside the base.
Meanwhile Carney’s biggest advantage right now is probably contrast.
Calm vs chaos.
Measured vs performative.
Builder vs outrage machine.
If he keeps that image while projects start moving, investment announcements land, and trade negotiations stabilize…
then patience may end up being the smarter play than trying to force another mandate.
The danger for the Liberals still remains affordability though.
Canadians will tolerate a lot politically… but not indefinitely at the grocery store.
🇨🇦💙 Thx for this post! Holy Crap! 🎉🪅🎊 Mark Carney - the free world’s North Star 💫