Elections are expensive and Carney has a majority now and 4 years of run time to see new peojects being developed. Significant new economic investments and activity and if I was a betting man a renewed CAMUSA this fall including the removal of all tariffs. Trump's economy is in a dhambles and the auto industry in the US is demanding the removal of tariffs and the return of stability to the industry provided by CAMUSA. So Carney not doing a bad deal will be the master strategist. No need for an election to slow the momentum. Too much work still to be done.
And honestly, it’s probably closer to how Carney himself is thinking.
A snap election is the pure strategist move.
But governing through the chaos and delivering results is the statesman move.
If CUSMA gets renewed this fall, tariffs get rolled back, and investment momentum keeps building… the Conservatives lose their strongest weapon, which is economic frustration.
And you’re right about the auto sector.
Stability matters more to that industry than ideology. Supply chains hate uncertainty more than almost anything.
I still think the danger window for the Liberals is inflation and rising costs over the next 12–18 months. That’s the clock ticking in the background of all this.
But if Carney can navigate the trade negotiations without folding into a bad deal, while new projects and investment start visibly landing in Canada…
then the political map could look very different by the next election.
What am I missing here? I keep hearing "if CUSMA gets renewed." As far as I know, CUSMA doesn't expire for 10 years! It's being reviewed, not renewed. Yes, any party can walk away from it with 6 months notice, but that's not renewing or expiring, that's ending. Otherwise, all parties can discuss what they like or don't like and the offending parties can take it under advisement. There is no mechanism to force change in the agreement as far as I know.
The U.S. has in fact acted in breach of the contract by enacting tariffs in areas that were covered by the agreement. Canada can pursue legal avenues to avenge this action. However Canada has to prove that they are the injured party and it's the buyer that pays the tariffs. In the meantime the U.S. is buying more than before the tariffs! The trade deficit is increasing for them.
As a nation we should be very grateful to the idiocy of the U.S. government. It has caused us to realize we shouldn't put all our eggs in one basket. We are diversifying and creating new relationships and trade partners. All the while we continue to sell to the U.S. under the agreement. The odds of the U.S. ending the agreement is minimal because their people need what we sell, otherwise they wouldn't be buying them. The main reason we want the continuation of the agreement is to give us time to fully develop our escape strategy.
This explains why Carney hasn't rushed to discuss the agreement. We want to maintain the status quo while we build Canada strong. We have said we're ready to talk about things any time they want, but that doesn't mean we're willing to change anything. They are beginning to realize that our knees aren't shaking (except for Pierre), that we are the aggrieved party and that we are not going to back down. If they walk away the folks that buy from us will be upset; if they don't then Canada will carry on, thanks.
There are 3 options. Renewal which extends the agreement for 16 years to 2042. So its a promise of stability for longer. A review without renewal which leaves tge expirery at 2036 which lacks the same level of stability and will prevent large capital investment in the auto sector and will be a continuation of the death of the sector by a thousand cuts. The third option termination by providing 6 month notice. Termination would be disasterous for the auto and manufacturing sectors, continuation is time to pursue reinvention but the old auto sector will face slow evisceration. Renewal which extends the agreement term is the most favorable outcome as it is the most investable scenario. In all scenarios major infrastructure building will still happen. With renewal there will likely be F35's with continuation gripen's and auto industry reinvention. All depends on depends the US rolling back all the tariffs and pursuing Carney's fortress North America strategy or not. Interesting times. Carney is holding most of the cards.
Agree with most of what is said here - except with the early election call. Carney now has his majority, albeit slim, let’s see what he can accomplish with it. If he continues building relationships, great. But if he calls another election it might be seen as trying to take advantage of a political situation and people on the fence may not like it. Besides, if Pierre keeps shooting himself in the foot, why not keep letting him do it?
The counterpoint is that Carney’s brand/aura/credibility is based in no small part on a “too busy getting 💩 done for Canada to play at petty politics” and calling an early election would go directly against that while undermining the Canada's strategic international position of having a stable government for another ~3 years.
If inflation happens it will happen everywhere. The actual actions that can be taken are proper stewardship and we have the best man in charge for that. He will not be responsible for the pain but hevwill bring calm to the storm. Canada will be Canada Strong likely in four years witg a more diversified trading market, amazing growth in new maker industries and the hotest economy in the G7. We will be fine.
Can they add a question to the referendum? "I agree that if this referendum fails, I will immediately renounce my Canadian citizenship and begin the process of emigrating - along with my family, if applicable - to the United States of America." 😏
If they want to leave Canada that badly, they shouldn't mind putting it in writing.
Start *now* to make sure Canadians know that the coming inflation doesn't have anything to do with *your* government; it has to do with the idiot in the White House, and the whole world *knows* that.
I'll be fine hearing that some of the rest of the world might do for us what our Congress is too chicken-shit to do for them.
Interesting but the world is under pressure, on every level, things are more expensive. To blame our leaders is wrong. Take responsibly for where you are, move on, that we will understand, quit playing the blame game we are so tired of it. Just listen to us and do something here at home.
Elections are expensive and Carney has a majority now and 4 years of run time to see new peojects being developed. Significant new economic investments and activity and if I was a betting man a renewed CAMUSA this fall including the removal of all tariffs. Trump's economy is in a dhambles and the auto industry in the US is demanding the removal of tariffs and the return of stability to the industry provided by CAMUSA. So Carney not doing a bad deal will be the master strategist. No need for an election to slow the momentum. Too much work still to be done.
That’s actually a very strong argument, Larry.
And honestly, it’s probably closer to how Carney himself is thinking.
A snap election is the pure strategist move.
But governing through the chaos and delivering results is the statesman move.
If CUSMA gets renewed this fall, tariffs get rolled back, and investment momentum keeps building… the Conservatives lose their strongest weapon, which is economic frustration.
And you’re right about the auto sector.
Stability matters more to that industry than ideology. Supply chains hate uncertainty more than almost anything.
I still think the danger window for the Liberals is inflation and rising costs over the next 12–18 months. That’s the clock ticking in the background of all this.
But if Carney can navigate the trade negotiations without folding into a bad deal, while new projects and investment start visibly landing in Canada…
then the political map could look very different by the next election.
That’s where the real test begins.
What am I missing here? I keep hearing "if CUSMA gets renewed." As far as I know, CUSMA doesn't expire for 10 years! It's being reviewed, not renewed. Yes, any party can walk away from it with 6 months notice, but that's not renewing or expiring, that's ending. Otherwise, all parties can discuss what they like or don't like and the offending parties can take it under advisement. There is no mechanism to force change in the agreement as far as I know.
The U.S. has in fact acted in breach of the contract by enacting tariffs in areas that were covered by the agreement. Canada can pursue legal avenues to avenge this action. However Canada has to prove that they are the injured party and it's the buyer that pays the tariffs. In the meantime the U.S. is buying more than before the tariffs! The trade deficit is increasing for them.
As a nation we should be very grateful to the idiocy of the U.S. government. It has caused us to realize we shouldn't put all our eggs in one basket. We are diversifying and creating new relationships and trade partners. All the while we continue to sell to the U.S. under the agreement. The odds of the U.S. ending the agreement is minimal because their people need what we sell, otherwise they wouldn't be buying them. The main reason we want the continuation of the agreement is to give us time to fully develop our escape strategy.
This explains why Carney hasn't rushed to discuss the agreement. We want to maintain the status quo while we build Canada strong. We have said we're ready to talk about things any time they want, but that doesn't mean we're willing to change anything. They are beginning to realize that our knees aren't shaking (except for Pierre), that we are the aggrieved party and that we are not going to back down. If they walk away the folks that buy from us will be upset; if they don't then Canada will carry on, thanks.
There are 3 options. Renewal which extends the agreement for 16 years to 2042. So its a promise of stability for longer. A review without renewal which leaves tge expirery at 2036 which lacks the same level of stability and will prevent large capital investment in the auto sector and will be a continuation of the death of the sector by a thousand cuts. The third option termination by providing 6 month notice. Termination would be disasterous for the auto and manufacturing sectors, continuation is time to pursue reinvention but the old auto sector will face slow evisceration. Renewal which extends the agreement term is the most favorable outcome as it is the most investable scenario. In all scenarios major infrastructure building will still happen. With renewal there will likely be F35's with continuation gripen's and auto industry reinvention. All depends on depends the US rolling back all the tariffs and pursuing Carney's fortress North America strategy or not. Interesting times. Carney is holding most of the cards.
Agree with most of what is said here - except with the early election call. Carney now has his majority, albeit slim, let’s see what he can accomplish with it. If he continues building relationships, great. But if he calls another election it might be seen as trying to take advantage of a political situation and people on the fence may not like it. Besides, if Pierre keeps shooting himself in the foot, why not keep letting him do it?
That’s a completely fair point, Kevin.
And politically, perception matters just as much as strategy.
A snap election might make sense on paper… but voters don’t always reward “smart” political timing.
Sometimes they punish it if it feels manipulative or unnecessary.
Especially right now when people are exhausted.
I think your last point is the one that matters most...
Why interrupt your opponent while they’re damaging themselves?
Poilievre’s biggest problem at the moment isn’t Liberal attacks.
It’s that parts of his own coalition keep pulling him into positions that don’t play well outside the base.
Meanwhile Carney’s biggest advantage right now is probably contrast.
Calm vs chaos.
Measured vs performative.
Builder vs outrage machine.
If he keeps that image while projects start moving, investment announcements land, and trade negotiations stabilize…
then patience may end up being the smarter play than trying to force another mandate.
The danger for the Liberals still remains affordability though.
Canadians will tolerate a lot politically… but not indefinitely at the grocery store.
Pierre haha
🇨🇦💙 Thx for this post! Holy Crap! 🎉🪅🎊 Mark Carney - the free world’s North Star 💫
The counterpoint is that Carney’s brand/aura/credibility is based in no small part on a “too busy getting 💩 done for Canada to play at petty politics” and calling an early election would go directly against that while undermining the Canada's strategic international position of having a stable government for another ~3 years.
That’s probably the strongest argument against the early-election strategy so far, Stef.
Because you’re absolutely right...
Carney’s political capital is tied heavily to the perception that he’s operating above the usual partisan gamesmanship.
His whole image right now is basically... “Less theatre. More execution.”
Calling an opportunistic election could crack that image overnight.
And internationally, stability has value right now too.
If Canada is trying to renegotiate trade structures, attract manufacturing, secure investment, and reposition supply chains…
foreign governments and corporations want predictability.
A government with a fresh mandate and several years of runway
sends a very different signal than a country constantly in campaign mode.
That’s especially true while the U.S. is dealing with political volatility and economic uncertainty simultaneously.
So from a pure political strategist lens, an early election could make sense.
But from a statesmanship, credibility, and international confidence perspective…
staying focused on governing may actually strengthen Carney’s brand
far more over time than trying to maximize seat count now.
And honestly, that may end up mattering more than parliamentary math.
If inflation happens it will happen everywhere. The actual actions that can be taken are proper stewardship and we have the best man in charge for that. He will not be responsible for the pain but hevwill bring calm to the storm. Canada will be Canada Strong likely in four years witg a more diversified trading market, amazing growth in new maker industries and the hotest economy in the G7. We will be fine.
Can they add a question to the referendum? "I agree that if this referendum fails, I will immediately renounce my Canadian citizenship and begin the process of emigrating - along with my family, if applicable - to the United States of America." 😏
If they want to leave Canada that badly, they shouldn't mind putting it in writing.
The problem is the referendum isn’t legally binding.
Darn. 😉
Start *now* to make sure Canadians know that the coming inflation doesn't have anything to do with *your* government; it has to do with the idiot in the White House, and the whole world *knows* that.
I'll be fine hearing that some of the rest of the world might do for us what our Congress is too chicken-shit to do for them.
Interesting but the world is under pressure, on every level, things are more expensive. To blame our leaders is wrong. Take responsibly for where you are, move on, that we will understand, quit playing the blame game we are so tired of it. Just listen to us and do something here at home.
Carney so smart Encyclopedia Britannica is suing him.
Four Part Series: The Prairie Break
This is a four part series for peace!
Please read and share.
https://kellydwills55.substack.com/p/the-prairie-brake-a-canadian-exit-0aa?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=r5v2
https://kellydwills55.substack.com/p/the-prairie-brake-a-canadian-exit-a49?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=r5v2
https://kellydwills55.substack.com/p/the-prairie-brake-a-canadian-exit-d93?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=r5v2
https://kellydwills55.substack.com/p/the-prairie-brake-a-canadian-exit-5cc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=r5v2