The Collapse Nobody Wants to Talk About
It wasn’t just a win… it was a signal. And one party heard it loudest.
Let’s skip the celebration for a second.
Yes, the Liberals now hold a majority government.
Yes, that means control… 174 seats, comfortably above the 172 line needed to run the show.
But that’s not the real story.
The real story is what just happened to the Conservatives.
And it’s not pretty.
Start with the by-elections.
Three ridings.
Three very clear patterns.
In Scarborough Southwest, the Liberal vote didn’t just hold… it climbed to roughly 69%. Meanwhile, the Conservative share dropped hard from around 30% in the last election to about 18%.
That’s not a swing. That’s erosion.
Move over to University… Rosedale.
Liberals stayed steady in the mid-60s.
The surprise? The NDP jumped into second place, pushing Conservatives down to third with just over 12%.
Let that sink in.
They didn’t just lose votes.
They lost position.
Then comes the one that should make Conservative strategists lose sleep.
A riding that was once a three-way fight…
Now shows Conservatives collapsing to about 3% of the vote.
From 18%… to 3%.
That’s not voters “thinking about switching.”
That’s voters gone.
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
Other parties didn’t collapse.
The NDP?
They actually gained ground in vote share in multiple spots.
The Bloc?
Still competitive where it matters.
Only one party fell off a cliff.
So what happened?
There are only a few possibilities…
Conservative voters stayed home
They drifted to other parties
They checked out completely
None of those are good.
Because elections aren’t won by loud supporters…
They’re won by people who show up.
And then there’s leadership.
When Pierre Poilievre is pressed, he leans on one line:
“We got a record number of votes last time.”
That sounds strong… until you remember the other guy got more.
Mark Carney didn’t just win… he won bigger.
And voters remember outcomes, not excuses.
There’s also noise inside the party.
Talk of internal issues.
Concerns about direction.
Even whispers about MPs crossing the floor.
That’s not a stable machine.
That’s a team trying to figure out who’s still on the bus.
Meanwhile, Carney wakes up with four years of runway.
No election pressure.
Room to maneuver.
And a growing perception that his side is the “functional option.”
And here’s the uncomfortable truth…
People don’t just vote for ideas anymore.
They vote for stability.
They vote for the team that looks like it knows what it’s doing.
Right now?
That’s not the Conservatives.
The Recap…
Liberals didn’t surge… they held strong where it mattered.
The NDP quietly gained ground.
But the real headline? Conservative support didn’t shift… it vanished.
And when voters disappear, they don’t leave a forwarding address.
The Gut-Punch…
You don’t lose elections when people vote against you.
You lose when your own people stop showing up.
Source credit:
Based on by-election results, seat counts, and political analysis from the provided transcript.
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Interesting breakdown of how the votes were cast.
Of concern, given how important it is at this very time that we have a stable government is the small % of eligible voters who actually voted. Low 30% in the Toronto ridings.
Another point that comes to mind when I hear the negative comments that the Liberals only have a majority because of floor crossers. According to various polls, and reflective of how votes were cast on April 13, IF there was an election today the Liberals would win a much stronger majority. I am grateful for the fact that PM Carney is not taking us through a self serving, opportunistic, Doug Ford style election.
Great synopsis Fred! I think we all just want to settle in with this security, hoping the dumptrump wakes up & makes at least one good decision...walk out, give up the ghost, go play somewhere else & leave the rest of the world in peace Everyone has to have a dream, that's mine! haha.