Trump already told Canada the weapon he intends to use: “economic force.” The real question isn’t how high the tariffs go. It’s what Canada is expected to surrender to make them stop.
Thank the gods we got the PM we did at the right time. Even though I suspect JT would have done much the same he d have been beset by such fervent opposition that we d have been in danger of caving. Support would have been fragmented.
I am so proud of Canadians today for seeing the threat and responding as we have.
And we ll find ways through, just like Ukraine.
And maybe be the better for it on the other end in so many ways.The American Empire is corrupt within and we were going hand in hand. There will be short term pain but a better future without them as they are today.
Has anyone written thoughtfully about the political scenarios if the US balkanizes? I d like to read something smart but dont have time or enegry to go through all the scifi options myself any more. But I wonder who would be the allies of a stalwart Canadian federation?
Bev, I think you've put your finger on something bigger than this article.
We spend an enormous amount of time asking what Canada does if America becomes more hostile, but much less asking what Canada does if America becomes less cohesive.
I don't know enough yet to give you a responsible answer on actual U.S. breakup scenarios, and I'm not going to make one up.
But the question fascinates me...
Who are Canada's natural allies in a world where we can no longer assume a stable United States beside us?
Europe, the UK, Australia, Japan, South Korea and others immediately come to mind, but geography makes the American relationship impossible to simply replace.
I think you've just handed this old geezer another rabbit hole. 😁
And I agree with your larger point.
Some pain from reducing our dependence on the U.S. may turn out to be...
the price of building a stronger Canada that should probably have been built years ago.
I try to honour my darling grandmother, who kept our family stories back to the first Loyalist and Irish settlers, and which I m trying to save as the last one who remembers anything.She gives me questions to think about so lets blame her.
Australia already gave up its sovereignty. We barely trade with the USA. But we signed up for $360 billion in non existent nuclear submarines and other US weapons (secret, the public isnt allowed to know, we have to go to US Senate hearings to even find out minimal data). Our military claimed "we need interoperability". Code for, the USA has the kill switch and we can only deploy US (read 80-90% of all our weapons) with US permission. Trump's administration looked at this Biden era deal, and said " we can't improve it! Australia only deploys with our OK, they pay for several new US bases on Australia, including housing 2-3,000 troops plus families (during a severe housing crisis here), Australia fixes US submarines for free, the USA don't actually have to give Australia ANYTHING in return, and Australia sends $5Billion plus a year for the next 40 years" What's not to like? Worse, both our major parties were SLAVERING for this debacle. Looking at all those lovely post political career snouts in a $360 billion trough.
Yes I always think of him saying that "Economic Force" anytime he does anything to do with Canada.
Especially in moments when I've felt like I needed to convince someone the "51st state" threat is serious, I always point out, "He threatened to do it with economic force, and then he started applying economic force"
🇨🇦💙 CBC July 27/26 “Mexico not looking to cut side deal with U.S. and leave Canada out.”
Mexico imported 32,800 tons of Canadian beef in 2025. That makes Mexico Canada’s third‑largest beef export market by volume (after the U.S. and Japan) and the fast‑growing one.
A major driver of the recent surge is a dedicated supply agreement between JBS Canada (Brooks, Alberta plant) and Costco Mexico.
Watch how dovetailed Carney’s other export plans unfold.
I’m watching for 2 things: Carney’s plans to make imports and exports easier and his upcoming Financial Summit.
Trade Impact Program (TIP): a $5 billion, two‑year facility launched in March 2025 provides trade credit insurance, export guarantees, and FX guarantees specifically to help Canadian firms facing tariffs and shifting trade patterns sell into non‑U.S. markets. By April 2026, EDC had already deployed $2.1 billion to about 800 companies under TIP.
Concessional trade finance envelope: Budget 2025 created a $2 billion concessional finance pool to help foreign buyers purchase Canadian goods (especially in infrastructure and clean tech), explicitly to open markets beyond the U.S.
CanExport enhancement: an extra $68.5 million over four years (from 2026‑27) to help SMEs (Small and Medium sized co’s) cover costs of market research, trade shows, and legal work for new, non‑U.S. markets
Strategic Exports Office (SEO): created in July 2026 within Global Affairs and run with EDC (Export Development Canada)to coordinate big export pushes in aerospace, defence, energy, and infrastructure into Indo‑Pacific, Europe, and the Gulf.
Carney’s ‘Canada Financial Summit’ takes place in Toronto this Sept,14/15. Invitations went out in April/26 bringing together major global investors and corporate leaders from 28 countries, with nearly 100 investment organizations collectively managing US$120 trillion in assets. Carney’s pitch centres on federal money as seed capital plus policy sweeteners to draw in much larger private sums.
He’s partnered with Canada Pension Investment Board, one of the largest real estate, infrastructure and private equity investors globally. (That’s our CPP🥳)
I know this will be tough going for many Canadian companies but the world sees Carney the same way we do. 🇨🇦 Carney plays 3D chess, Trump plays JENGA with a blow torch.😏
We are living in interesting times certainly. PM Carney is far more strategic than the orange blob south of the border. Certainly wealth continues to be power and each country holds wealth. What's changing is the world financial structure namely driven by the US including their debt levels and the Bond market. The US has for decades inserted itself into the business of other countries through various means. What is new today is the US attacking many/all countries through the tariff game. It's a very dangerous play and the result could change a number of long-held structures, especially financial.
No worries! I agree a fair bit is inferred. From a practical perspective, when most of our weapons are US supplied, when we have no ability to make the bullets or equivalent, when the maintenance supplies are all US sourced, plus rumours, admittedly unsubstantiated (more secrets) of kill switches on the F35s and the US hinting the two second hand AUKUS Virginia Class subs (IF they ever arrive, if they ever come out of maintenance) will/must have US commanders, that's a sovereign issue. And we here in Australia are not "allowed" to know the thinking, reasoning of why we went from acquiring brand new conventional French submarines (cancelled part way through costing billions in cancellation fees) to a couple of Block IV used Virginia's (which we MUST pay for but the US can opt not to supply!) In addition under AUKUS the UK is to build 1 or more subs for us based on a variation of their soon to be retired Astute Class design uding US Nuclear engines. Then we get to copy and build locally using this wonderful design. What could possibly go wrong? Note: we are responsible for disposing of the highly enriched weapons grade fuel for these subs including the old Virginia's. Where? Again, secret. We have used medical nuclear waste that's been sitting in a warehouse for decades as we haven't worked out what to do with it.... Meanwhile 900 houses for the US Military are going under construction for the "rotational force" in Perth. It's not a "base'. Just like Ukraine isn't a war, it's a Special Military Operation.
The revolving door in particular in the military and senior defence portfolio politicians moving to US Military contractors is well known and documented. Bought and sold for their little black books.
LOL Fred, I guess I am a "little" bit mouthy in situations like this, haha, just keep that slime out of our country & our business & I promise not to hype anything that would put me on worldwide TV haha
Canada has already answered the “surrender” question: 50% US tariffs are hitting roughly $20bn of Canadian goods, and Ottawa is retaliating on a similar value starting Sept 8. Carney’s line that the lake “is called Lake Ontario, today and forever” is the sovereignty part; the tariff part is being met symmetrically, not negotiated away.
the “on sovereignty, there is nothing to negotiate” line is the one that holds. 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, with retaliation on a similar value of US imports set for September 8. the rename is the gesture; a Detroit plywood supplier saying the industry could shut “within weeks” is the print. does “respond economically” still work if the next round is energy, or does that just feed the sovereignty fight you said is closed?
Thank the gods we got the PM we did at the right time. Even though I suspect JT would have done much the same he d have been beset by such fervent opposition that we d have been in danger of caving. Support would have been fragmented.
I am so proud of Canadians today for seeing the threat and responding as we have.
And we ll find ways through, just like Ukraine.
And maybe be the better for it on the other end in so many ways.The American Empire is corrupt within and we were going hand in hand. There will be short term pain but a better future without them as they are today.
Has anyone written thoughtfully about the political scenarios if the US balkanizes? I d like to read something smart but dont have time or enegry to go through all the scifi options myself any more. But I wonder who would be the allies of a stalwart Canadian federation?
Bev, I think you've put your finger on something bigger than this article.
We spend an enormous amount of time asking what Canada does if America becomes more hostile, but much less asking what Canada does if America becomes less cohesive.
I don't know enough yet to give you a responsible answer on actual U.S. breakup scenarios, and I'm not going to make one up.
But the question fascinates me...
Who are Canada's natural allies in a world where we can no longer assume a stable United States beside us?
Europe, the UK, Australia, Japan, South Korea and others immediately come to mind, but geography makes the American relationship impossible to simply replace.
I think you've just handed this old geezer another rabbit hole. 😁
And I agree with your larger point.
Some pain from reducing our dependence on the U.S. may turn out to be...
the price of building a stronger Canada that should probably have been built years ago.
I try to honour my darling grandmother, who kept our family stories back to the first Loyalist and Irish settlers, and which I m trying to save as the last one who remembers anything.She gives me questions to think about so lets blame her.
Correct! "Sovereignty isn't negotiable."
And as Ukraine shows us, it's worth fighting for!
Your point here is valid, Fred and for today, without question. I believe Canadians have the courage to sustain the fight.
"The question is whether we’re willing to endure some economic pain today so Canadians still get to decide what Canada does tomorrow."
Be like Ukraine! 🇺🇦
❤️🇨🇦
Cath, that's exactly the principle I'm getting at...
while being careful not to pretend Canada's situation is remotely comparable to what Ukrainians have physically endured.
Ukraine has reminded the world what sovereignty actually means when somebody tries to take it away.
Canada has the enormous luxury of defending ours before we're anywhere near that point.
For us, that means accepting some economic discomfort if necessary, finding new customers, building new relationships...
and refusing agreements that transfer Canadian decision-making to somebody else.
We don't have to fight a war.
We have to make damned sure we never surrender enough sovereignty that somebody else starts deciding Canada's future for us.
And yes... I believe Canadians have the backbone for that too.
I agree with that Fred!
Australia already gave up its sovereignty. We barely trade with the USA. But we signed up for $360 billion in non existent nuclear submarines and other US weapons (secret, the public isnt allowed to know, we have to go to US Senate hearings to even find out minimal data). Our military claimed "we need interoperability". Code for, the USA has the kill switch and we can only deploy US (read 80-90% of all our weapons) with US permission. Trump's administration looked at this Biden era deal, and said " we can't improve it! Australia only deploys with our OK, they pay for several new US bases on Australia, including housing 2-3,000 troops plus families (during a severe housing crisis here), Australia fixes US submarines for free, the USA don't actually have to give Australia ANYTHING in return, and Australia sends $5Billion plus a year for the next 40 years" What's not to like? Worse, both our major parties were SLAVERING for this debacle. Looking at all those lovely post political career snouts in a $360 billion trough.
Somewhere in Australia, now THAT is an interesting comparison to what I'm trying to get Canadians thinking about.
I'm not familiar enough with the details of AUKUS...
to endorse all the specifics you've laid out here,
particularly the question of whether Australia actually requires U.S. permission to deploy its weapons.
I'd want to check the agreements and separate what's documented from what's inferred.
But your larger point lands squarely on the issue I'm raising.
Sovereignty isn't just whether another country's flag flies over your Parliament.
It's whether your government retains the practical ability to make important decisions independently.
That's exactly the question Canadians should be asking...
whenever we're told some concession is merely about trade, defence, interoperability or “security.”
At what point does dependence become control?
You've given me another rabbit hole to investigate.
Thank you from Canada.
Yes I always think of him saying that "Economic Force" anytime he does anything to do with Canada.
Especially in moments when I've felt like I needed to convince someone the "51st state" threat is serious, I always point out, "He threatened to do it with economic force, and then he started applying economic force"
Impolite Goose, exactly.
That's the connection I think too many people miss.
If Trump had said “economic force” and then never applied economic pressure to Canada, we could reasonably dismiss it as another Trump remark.
But he told us the method.
Not military force.
Economic force.
And then came tariffs, threats to our market access and increasing economic pressure.
That doesn't prove every tariff is part of some secret annexation master plan...
and I don't need to claim that.
The man's own words are enough.
When someone says he would use economic force to make your country part of his,
I think you're entitled to pay very close attention when he starts applying economic force to your country.
That's why I refuse to treat the “51st state” talk as a joke anymore.
Excellent analysis Fred, we are being attacked and we can't negotiate out identity and future
🇨🇦💙 CBC July 27/26 “Mexico not looking to cut side deal with U.S. and leave Canada out.”
Mexico imported 32,800 tons of Canadian beef in 2025. That makes Mexico Canada’s third‑largest beef export market by volume (after the U.S. and Japan) and the fast‑growing one.
A major driver of the recent surge is a dedicated supply agreement between JBS Canada (Brooks, Alberta plant) and Costco Mexico.
Watch how dovetailed Carney’s other export plans unfold.
Roxy, this is exactly what I'm watching too.
The part that interests me isn't simply whether Mexico buys another few thousand tonnes of Canadian beef.
It's the pattern.
Canada spent decades taking the easiest route: we produced something, looked south, and sold it to the enormous customer next door.
Now we're being forced to ask a question we probably should have asked years ago...
Who else wants what Canada produces?
Mexico is becoming a fascinating part of that answer.
And we're seeing the same thinking with Europe, Asia, energy, minerals, agriculture and other markets.
That's why I keep saying some of today's pain could eventually make Canada stronger.
Trump is using our dependence on the American market as leverage.
Carney's answer appears to be reducing the dependence that gives him that leverage.
That's a much bigger story than beef.
And yes... I'm watching how those pieces dovetail too.
I’m watching for 2 things: Carney’s plans to make imports and exports easier and his upcoming Financial Summit.
Trade Impact Program (TIP): a $5 billion, two‑year facility launched in March 2025 provides trade credit insurance, export guarantees, and FX guarantees specifically to help Canadian firms facing tariffs and shifting trade patterns sell into non‑U.S. markets. By April 2026, EDC had already deployed $2.1 billion to about 800 companies under TIP.
Concessional trade finance envelope: Budget 2025 created a $2 billion concessional finance pool to help foreign buyers purchase Canadian goods (especially in infrastructure and clean tech), explicitly to open markets beyond the U.S.
CanExport enhancement: an extra $68.5 million over four years (from 2026‑27) to help SMEs (Small and Medium sized co’s) cover costs of market research, trade shows, and legal work for new, non‑U.S. markets
Strategic Exports Office (SEO): created in July 2026 within Global Affairs and run with EDC (Export Development Canada)to coordinate big export pushes in aerospace, defence, energy, and infrastructure into Indo‑Pacific, Europe, and the Gulf.
Carney’s ‘Canada Financial Summit’ takes place in Toronto this Sept,14/15. Invitations went out in April/26 bringing together major global investors and corporate leaders from 28 countries, with nearly 100 investment organizations collectively managing US$120 trillion in assets. Carney’s pitch centres on federal money as seed capital plus policy sweeteners to draw in much larger private sums.
He’s partnered with Canada Pension Investment Board, one of the largest real estate, infrastructure and private equity investors globally. (That’s our CPP🥳)
I know this will be tough going for many Canadian companies but the world sees Carney the same way we do. 🇨🇦 Carney plays 3D chess, Trump plays JENGA with a blow torch.😏
We are living in interesting times certainly. PM Carney is far more strategic than the orange blob south of the border. Certainly wealth continues to be power and each country holds wealth. What's changing is the world financial structure namely driven by the US including their debt levels and the Bond market. The US has for decades inserted itself into the business of other countries through various means. What is new today is the US attacking many/all countries through the tariff game. It's a very dangerous play and the result could change a number of long-held structures, especially financial.
Kathleen, I think you’ve put your finger on something much bigger than tariffs.
For decades, American power wasn’t just military power.
It was financial power, trade power, the dollar, the bond market and the enormous attraction of having access to the American economy.
That system gave the United States tremendous influence.
What interests me now is what happens when that influence gets used too aggressively.
Countries don’t necessarily challenge America head-on.
They start quietly building alternatives.
Different customers.
Different suppliers.
Different trade agreements.
Different energy relationships.
Different ways of reducing their exposure to decisions made in Washington.
Canada is doing some of that right now.
I’m not ready to predict the end of American financial dominance...
that’s way above this old guy’s pay grade. 😁
But I do think Trump may be teaching a lot of countries the same lesson he taught Canada...
**Depending too heavily on one powerful country is fine right up until that country decides to use your dependence against you.**
And once countries learn that lesson, they don't easily forget it.
Exactly! This is how he treats Greenland.
The news seems to be missing this part 🤦♀️ on purpose I’m sure
Yes, Marlow... Greenland is one of the reasons I take the sovereignty side of this so seriously.
The details are different, obviously, but the pattern should make Canadians pay attention.
Trump has openly said he wants Greenland under American control.
He has applied economic pressure and even threatened tariffs against European countries that opposed him.
Denmark and Greenland responded with the only answer sovereignty allows...
**it's not yours to negotiate away.**
That's awfully familiar territory for Canadians these days.
Where I'd be a little more cautious is saying the news is deliberately hiding the connection.
I don't know that.
But I do think we sometimes make the mistake of treating each Trump episode as a separate crazy Tuesday.
Canada.
Greenland.
Tariffs.
Economic pressure.
Territorial rhetoric.
At some point you stop looking at the individual dots and look at the picture they're making.
That's why I keep saying...
**Tariffs are negotiable. Sovereignty isn't.**
I hope no is going to be enough for all of us
No worries! I agree a fair bit is inferred. From a practical perspective, when most of our weapons are US supplied, when we have no ability to make the bullets or equivalent, when the maintenance supplies are all US sourced, plus rumours, admittedly unsubstantiated (more secrets) of kill switches on the F35s and the US hinting the two second hand AUKUS Virginia Class subs (IF they ever arrive, if they ever come out of maintenance) will/must have US commanders, that's a sovereign issue. And we here in Australia are not "allowed" to know the thinking, reasoning of why we went from acquiring brand new conventional French submarines (cancelled part way through costing billions in cancellation fees) to a couple of Block IV used Virginia's (which we MUST pay for but the US can opt not to supply!) In addition under AUKUS the UK is to build 1 or more subs for us based on a variation of their soon to be retired Astute Class design uding US Nuclear engines. Then we get to copy and build locally using this wonderful design. What could possibly go wrong? Note: we are responsible for disposing of the highly enriched weapons grade fuel for these subs including the old Virginia's. Where? Again, secret. We have used medical nuclear waste that's been sitting in a warehouse for decades as we haven't worked out what to do with it.... Meanwhile 900 houses for the US Military are going under construction for the "rotational force" in Perth. It's not a "base'. Just like Ukraine isn't a war, it's a Special Military Operation.
The revolving door in particular in the military and senior defence portfolio politicians moving to US Military contractors is well known and documented. Bought and sold for their little black books.
You’ve taken my argument into an area I haven’t dug deeply enough into yet, and I appreciate it.
I’d separate some of the rumours and disputed details from the bigger question you’re raising, because that question is important all by itself...
**How sovereign is a country’s defence if another country controls too many of the things required to keep it operating?**
Aircraft are one thing.
But then come...
ammunition,
replacement parts,
software, maintenance,
weapons systems,
communications
and all the other pieces required to keep sophisticated military equipment functioning.
That doesn’t mean allies shouldn’t buy equipment from each other.
Of course they should.
It means there’s a difference between cooperation and dependence.
That’s exactly the lesson Canada is relearning economically right now.
I don’t want Canada cutting itself off from the United States.
I want enough Canadian and allied alternatives that Washington can never say, economically or militarily, **“You have no choice.”**
And your Australian experience is a good reminder that Canada isn’t the only country wrestling with that question.
Thanks for bringing a perspective from the other side of the planet into this discussion. 🇨🇦🇦🇺
No worries!
I will never agree to anything that slubbers out of his filthy mouth!!!! Canada Strong!!!!!!!
😂 Tell us how you really feel, Patsy!
I’m going to keep separating the man from the issue, though.
Trump can say something reasonable tomorrow and I’ll judge it on its merits.
He can say something ridiculous and I’ll call that too.
But when it comes to Canada’s sovereignty, there isn’t a Trump deal, Carney deal or anybody else’s deal that makes surrendering part of it acceptable.
Trade terms? Negotiate away.
Tariffs? Negotiate away.
**Canada’s right to make its own decisions? Not on the damn table.**
Canada Strong indeed.
LOL Fred, I guess I am a "little" bit mouthy in situations like this, haha, just keep that slime out of our country & our business & I promise not to hype anything that would put me on worldwide TV haha
We endure our winters, we endure the wildfires, we can endure a lot…
Brenda, exactly.
We endure winters that can kill you.
We endure wildfires that can take whole communities.
We've endured recessions, pandemics and plenty of other hard times.
So when somebody threatens us with economic pain because we won't surrender our independence, my reaction is becoming pretty simple...
You may have seriously underestimated Canadians.
We don't need to pretend it won't hurt.
We just need to decide that Canada is worth the hurt.
Definitely worth it.
Neither is trust. 🤷♀️
Canada has already answered the “surrender” question: 50% US tariffs are hitting roughly $20bn of Canadian goods, and Ottawa is retaliating on a similar value starting Sept 8. Carney’s line that the lake “is called Lake Ontario, today and forever” is the sovereignty part; the tariff part is being met symmetrically, not negotiated away.
Exactly, Nocta. And I think that distinction matters.
There are really two different things happening here.
On sovereignty, there is nothing to negotiate.
Lake Ontario is Lake Ontario. Canada is Canada. End of discussion.
On tariffs, Canada doesn’t have to pound the table or surrender either.
We can respond economically...
and that’s exactly what Ottawa is doing with dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs beginning September 8.
One small update to your number...
Ottawa now puts the affected amount at C$27.6 billion on each side.
That’s the approach I’ve been arguing for.
**Don’t imitate the bluster. Don’t surrender to it. Respond to the action.**
And meanwhile, keep building enough Canadian alternatives that the next economic threat has less power over us than the last one did.
That, to me, is what standing up for ourselves actually looks like.
the “on sovereignty, there is nothing to negotiate” line is the one that holds. 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, with retaliation on a similar value of US imports set for September 8. the rename is the gesture; a Detroit plywood supplier saying the industry could shut “within weeks” is the print. does “respond economically” still work if the next round is energy, or does that just feed the sovereignty fight you said is closed?