Canada is chasing tomorrow with India… while Washington and Mexico start making decisions about today without us. That’s the uncomfortable truth nobody wants to say out loud.
🇨🇦💙 Totally agree but a deep dive into Mark Carney needs to be factored in. Right man, right time doesn’t happen often in history. Carney ushered Canada through the asset back mortgage debacle that almost bankrupted Iceland and ushered Britain through Brexit. He’s a macro economist but with what focus? Most macro economists specialize in a school, (Keynesian or Monetarist or Behaviourist ). Carney treats schools of thought as tools, switching between them depending on the phase of the problem.
He views the supply and demand economy as having behavioural problems. First build like-minded countries cooperating on specific issues, bypassing big broken institutions. Every institution he did join gave him a different tool - finance, climate, trade, security, tech development.
He wasn't collecting credentials. He was building the exact network he'd need to act and react to a changing global economy.
The Davos speech wasn't a new idea — it was the activation of 20 years of relationship and trade architecture. He spoke the world listened.
Trump’s simplistic strategy of divide and conquer is amusing but Carney has yet to retaliate in any meaningful way. I doubt the world has seen a better prepared leader than our Prime Minister.
Mark Carney said this about dealing with the world as the way it is, not as we'd like it to be. It applies to this concern you have pointed out that Mexico and USA are going ahead negotiating without Canada re: CUSMA.
Firstly, it can't be CUSMA without Canada. Otherwise, it's just USMA, or USM.
Also, this process of the US trying to intimidate Canada by seeming to have trade talks with Mexico whilst cutting us out, is an ancient negotiation tactic used in almost every union bargaining session I have ever been involved with, not to mention, in the fascist playbook: divide and conquer.
Guarantee you also, that President Sheinbaum, a very smart lady, knows what's going on and while of course wanting the best deal for Mexico, also believes, as PM Carney does, that no deal is better than a bad deal.
Never underestimate your opponent and always trust your allies. Then it's easier to deal with the way things are, not as you wish they would be. ❤️🇨🇦
We are moving as fast as we can with a skillful leader. All we can do is try our best and be flexible. Unlike Mr. Trump, Mr. Carney has built a great deal of trust and goodwill around the world and that can be very useful.
Mexico is also at the mercy of the US at the moment. But Trump and Co will not be a trustworthy partner for Mexico either, and they fully understand that.
If you look at the Greenland debacle and the Iran war the US is now seen as unreliable by everyone. That has started to impact them across the board. The US is in reality as dependent as the rest when they alienate everybody. The difference is that they still think they can bully their way through and make it last.
Let the 2 year old dirtbrain play, Mexico is present but she won't betray Canada, she will respect as she has always done. She's dealt with toddlers before, so have we. Distance is good when a big orange ball is the subject! Thanks Fred! Another great mind bender!!! :)
Ps substitution theory is the emirates and bahrain replacing a large chunk of Canadian aluminum not because it is a national security improvement but because the underlying trade relationship is likely laced with substantial payments to a certain US crime family and the plan supports the economic terrorism on Canada a useful tool of the US oligharchy. They want our resources plain and simple and they want absolute control. America is the new Russia wit paved roads and indoor plumbing. We need to accept that the tradibg environment the US built after ww2 is totally in the rear view and the future is one of oligharch control of the US and trade relationships centered on grift and corruption. We need to accept this reality and move on. The US is never coming back to its democratic trading principles. We need to move on.
Fred. I have a definitive document on Canadian US Trade as it was in 2024. It totally destroys using the accounting trade deficit metric as being a measure of the value of the relationship. This summary is one every Canadian needs to see and understand. I have no followers and am not a meaningful voice. Id love to share but dont know how.
On a related matter yoi need to look more deeply at the softwood lumber and the countervailing duties. The story here is not a free market story. Its a contrived story of protectionosm and greed of oligharchs supported by the government who have their hsnds deeply into the Canadian forestry indudtry pockets. Clrarly a gravy train Trump doesnt want to lose. The important story few know is that countervailing duties like tariffs are paid by the importer. However what is not known is the Canadian lumber companies need to create shell companies in the US which becomes the importer of record. In this way 100% of the cost of the countervailing duties are paid by the Canadian seller company's. I believe this structure is the one Trump was hoping to replicate with tariffs. Why in gods name would anyone want to trade into such a corrupt environment. Similar crony capitalism is behind the aluminum and steel tariffs. Driving up profits of the US oligharchs while using substitution theory to disrupt and harm the Canadian economy because it is in Trumps opinion that economic harm is the way to have Canada agree to assimilation with America. So future trade between a dominant and a subordinate, the existing camusa basis is not a reasonavle expectation. The oligarchs want domination and control. Why are we waiting with baited breath to hope for a deal in an abusive relationship. There is no ethical trade when the oligharchs control the agenda. Wake up Canada. Time to run away from this abusive relationship. So there is that.
🇨🇦💙 Totally agree but a deep dive into Mark Carney needs to be factored in. Right man, right time doesn’t happen often in history. Carney ushered Canada through the asset back mortgage debacle that almost bankrupted Iceland and ushered Britain through Brexit. He’s a macro economist but with what focus? Most macro economists specialize in a school, (Keynesian or Monetarist or Behaviourist ). Carney treats schools of thought as tools, switching between them depending on the phase of the problem.
He views the supply and demand economy as having behavioural problems. First build like-minded countries cooperating on specific issues, bypassing big broken institutions. Every institution he did join gave him a different tool - finance, climate, trade, security, tech development.
He wasn't collecting credentials. He was building the exact network he'd need to act and react to a changing global economy.
The Davos speech wasn't a new idea — it was the activation of 20 years of relationship and trade architecture. He spoke the world listened.
Trump’s simplistic strategy of divide and conquer is amusing but Carney has yet to retaliate in any meaningful way. I doubt the world has seen a better prepared leader than our Prime Minister.
Good perspective, Roxy.
Long-game leaders usually look “too quiet” until the pieces start moving.
Exactamundo
Mark Carney said this about dealing with the world as the way it is, not as we'd like it to be. It applies to this concern you have pointed out that Mexico and USA are going ahead negotiating without Canada re: CUSMA.
Firstly, it can't be CUSMA without Canada. Otherwise, it's just USMA, or USM.
Also, this process of the US trying to intimidate Canada by seeming to have trade talks with Mexico whilst cutting us out, is an ancient negotiation tactic used in almost every union bargaining session I have ever been involved with, not to mention, in the fascist playbook: divide and conquer.
Guarantee you also, that President Sheinbaum, a very smart lady, knows what's going on and while of course wanting the best deal for Mexico, also believes, as PM Carney does, that no deal is better than a bad deal.
Never underestimate your opponent and always trust your allies. Then it's easier to deal with the way things are, not as you wish they would be. ❤️🇨🇦
Fair point, Cath.
We may be seeing more positioning than panic right now.
Increased stress level and at a time when Danielle Smith has decided to go rogue.
That’s the part raising a lot of people’s stress levels right now, Carol-Ann.
Economic uncertainty is hard enough without political instability layered on top of it.
The timing definitely isn’t helping.
We are moving as fast as we can with a skillful leader. All we can do is try our best and be flexible. Unlike Mr. Trump, Mr. Carney has built a great deal of trust and goodwill around the world and that can be very useful.
I think trust and relationships are probably part of the story here, Joanna.
In a world getting more unpredictable, goodwill has real value...
Especially when everyone’s suddenly looking for reliable partners.
We've been meeting with Mexico as well. Without the US in the room. So it's not like Mexico is cutting us out.
Fair point, Karen.
And that’s important context.
I don’t think Mexico is cutting Canada out...
my concern is more about who gets influence early when the groundwork starts being laid.
Mexico is also at the mercy of the US at the moment. But Trump and Co will not be a trustworthy partner for Mexico either, and they fully understand that.
If you look at the Greenland debacle and the Iran war the US is now seen as unreliable by everyone. That has started to impact them across the board. The US is in reality as dependent as the rest when they alienate everybody. The difference is that they still think they can bully their way through and make it last.
That reliability issue is the part I think a lot of countries
are quietly recalculating, Peter.
Trust takes years to build and not much time to damage.
And once partners start building backup plans…
they usually keep building them.
Let the 2 year old dirtbrain play, Mexico is present but she won't betray Canada, she will respect as she has always done. She's dealt with toddlers before, so have we. Distance is good when a big orange ball is the subject! Thanks Fred! Another great mind bender!!! :)
Haha… “distance is good” may end up being the accidental strategy of the decade, Patsy 😄
I think a lot of people are hoping cooler heads...
and trusted relationships... matter more than chaos right now.
Appreciate you, my friend
Ps substitution theory is the emirates and bahrain replacing a large chunk of Canadian aluminum not because it is a national security improvement but because the underlying trade relationship is likely laced with substantial payments to a certain US crime family and the plan supports the economic terrorism on Canada a useful tool of the US oligharchy. They want our resources plain and simple and they want absolute control. America is the new Russia wit paved roads and indoor plumbing. We need to accept that the tradibg environment the US built after ww2 is totally in the rear view and the future is one of oligharch control of the US and trade relationships centered on grift and corruption. We need to accept this reality and move on. The US is never coming back to its democratic trading principles. We need to move on.
Fred. I have a definitive document on Canadian US Trade as it was in 2024. It totally destroys using the accounting trade deficit metric as being a measure of the value of the relationship. This summary is one every Canadian needs to see and understand. I have no followers and am not a meaningful voice. Id love to share but dont know how.
On a related matter yoi need to look more deeply at the softwood lumber and the countervailing duties. The story here is not a free market story. Its a contrived story of protectionosm and greed of oligharchs supported by the government who have their hsnds deeply into the Canadian forestry indudtry pockets. Clrarly a gravy train Trump doesnt want to lose. The important story few know is that countervailing duties like tariffs are paid by the importer. However what is not known is the Canadian lumber companies need to create shell companies in the US which becomes the importer of record. In this way 100% of the cost of the countervailing duties are paid by the Canadian seller company's. I believe this structure is the one Trump was hoping to replicate with tariffs. Why in gods name would anyone want to trade into such a corrupt environment. Similar crony capitalism is behind the aluminum and steel tariffs. Driving up profits of the US oligharchs while using substitution theory to disrupt and harm the Canadian economy because it is in Trumps opinion that economic harm is the way to have Canada agree to assimilation with America. So future trade between a dominant and a subordinate, the existing camusa basis is not a reasonavle expectation. The oligarchs want domination and control. Why are we waiting with baited breath to hope for a deal in an abusive relationship. There is no ethical trade when the oligharchs control the agenda. Wake up Canada. Time to run away from this abusive relationship. So there is that.