What looked like a temporary trade dispute is becoming something much bigger. Ottawa is now building a future that assumes the United States may no longer be a dependable partner.
Great column Fred, the urgency to establish a strong foothold has never been greater. And all the while the Alberta MAPLE MAGA's are throwing a wrench into our PM's efforts to plot a course for Canada to survive. More than ever before, unity across our country is what is necessary to withstand the assault coming from the Trump authoritarian state.
Thanks Fred and Frank. What bothers me most about the chaos the pm is under is the traitorous Danielle Smith. We must get her out of there. Carney is working so hard to make Canada stronger and she and her maplemaggots throw a wrench into things. 😞
🇨🇦💙 Our biggest assets? Our Premieres are united. We are united.
Carney is a pragmatic crisis manager who combines steady leadership, financial expertise, and a bias for action when duty calls. This will get messy. Please donate to your local food banks and ELBOWS UP.🫶🏼
🇨🇦💙 The WTO’s dispute system has been badly weakened because the U.S. has long blocked appointments to its appellate body, which means cases can run into a dead end even when a panel rules against Washington.
But Carney excels in crisis, here’s the groundwork. Carney’s asked the premieres to prepare a list of sanctions/tariffs that he’ll configure into a pre-announced package that’s ready to snap into place on August 19. Just like the last round, he’ll handpick the red and purple states that causes the worst damage for MAGA. Of course he’ll let Doug Ford off the leash to do something big and flashy (like the Reagan tariff debacle) Alberta? Carney controls the actual federal retaliation, negotiations with the U.S., and any Canada-wide support package. Alberta can’t block that, but Danielle can complain. Big whoop. She’s facing a summer of wildfires, floods and severe weather that’ll require fed funds.
I would like to see Premiers Mo and Smith get on Team Canada. Neither wants to use the tools (oil and gas, potash, uranium) they have. I listened to Smith today. Her plan is to treat the US with kid gloves while at the same time, taking a 2×4 to the head of the Canadian government. She wants to send them more oil not less. She would sell us out. Tell me again that she is not a separatist.
The thing to be cautious about here, is that if we just "turn off the taps" or "don't sell potash", etc., then two (very bad) things happen, while we get a few moments of satisfaction watching Americans freak.
1a. WTO recognizes these actions as improper -- just as improper as what Trump is doing to us. So when the actions are adjudicated, both countries get slaps on the wrists, and have to "make restitution" to each other. If we don't just "turn off the taps", then the US is the bad guy and has to make restitution to us. (the challenge is, to do a turn off the taps, but without actually DOING that -- the easy one (that WTO would accept) is SELL the Oil/Potash/Uranium to some other customer, preferably at market prices (remember, Oil sent south is discounted). That's defensible. USA would have oil shortage (spikes the price before midterms), OR would have to pay us market price (which still spikes the price down there). Only drawback is then they would likely challenge Canada for "subsidizing the cost of oil elsewhere", as TMX costs are heavily subsidized -- (and WTO would agree). They don't do this now because their discount price is lower, so TMX doesn't matter to them. But if the discount disappears . . . .
1b. (this is more important than above!): Carney's been flying around the world, pitching Canada as a stable, reliable, rule-of-law-based trading partner / defence partner, etc. If we do the "tit for tat" with turning off taps, etc., then WE get perceived as being NO DIFFERENT than USA, if there's a dispute. Other countries/investors then don't see Canada as "reliable, rule-of-law" etc., even if they know why we're retaliating to the bully. What scores us points is doing the retaliation appropriate/legally.
2. Trump/Republicans DESPERATELY need SBW (Some Big Wins) before their midterm election. So, "winning the Iran War" would work -- but so would "thrashing those evil, exploitive, don't-fall-for-their-I'm-Sorry crap" Canadians, who are "doing economic harm". (they would then say, in dealing with this, that "Only Trump/Republicans can deal with all of these threats to America! Dems are communists, remember?"). And (worse) if we actually turn off oil, withhold uranium/potash, turn of electricity, etc., that WOULD give them a real "national emergency" (right before midterms) -- and I could see them rationalizing strategic border incursions to "turn the taps back on", and then argue it out in courts/conflict later. Might even give him the excuse to cancel the midterms (which Constitutionally, he can't - but that doesn't seem to stop him). So we certainly do NOT want to become THAT excuse for his/their success!
Short of it, this doesn't mean we don't take the fight to him and do "something" in response -- we must! But this needs strategy.
Good thing Carney's the world's preeminent macroeconomist (at a government level), and has forgotten more about all this trade stuff than most others with Ph,Ds remember (or at least the likes of Navarro, Bessant, Hessant, and Grier).
You raise good points, Mr. Rowson. If Canada were to halt or severely restrict crude and potash sales to the US, violating WTO rules would apply, further retaliation by the US would be guaranteed. They do have leverage. Without data, I understand that much of the supply of refined gasoline and other petroleum derivatives is exported by the US to Canada. Indeed, every action in life has a consequence.
I don't think we would have to turn the taps off per se. We could just turn them down or take some off-line for maintenance. It would still decrease the amount of crude sent but not so much as to cripple them, just give them a kick in the knee so to speak.
I believe DS is a separatist too. We are finding out more about the leaders of this movement and they seem to be a bunch of misfits and criminals. Carney today shut her down regarding the equalization payments. He didn't disagree they need looking at but they won't be addressed until 2029. The process will likely be followed.
I am excited with the way Canada has reached out to new trading partners. Trump has damaged the US so bad, how long will it take for the US to recover? That time would only hurt Canada more if we didnt start to move forward. Nothing lasts forever.
PM Carney is moving us in the right direction. Proud to be Canadian.
Kathy, Roxy, great to call for action for donations to food banks. I set up an automatic monthly credit card donation to our local food bank since there are so many people in need. I think that any Canadians who can afford a small amount per month should consider helping their neighbours in this way. Small donations from many people can really make a difference.
Maybe Canada should gain total control of its future by leaving CUSMA. Therd would no longer be any compliance restrictions. Trade with the US on resources would in all likelihood continue but hopefully with a national wealth fund excise tax attatched. No CUSMA commitments allows Csnada to do trade agreements with anyone it wants including China of we so choose. No longer having to play in accordance with rules developed to protect the USA over its trading partners. Also bting back the 17.5% industrial products tarif to protect Canadian industry and necessity and industrial reinvention will make Canada Great.
I think one lesson from all this is that Canada needs more strategic flexibility than we've had in the past.
Whether that ultimately means reforming CUSMA or moving beyond it is a debate worth having... but our long-term goal should be the same... building a stronger, more self-reliant Canadian economy.
I have never voted Liberal in my life … but all these conservatives saying we need a deal need to step back and look at the full picture … Trump will not honour a deal longer than a week ask any the countries that agreed to deals he immediately broke them and put tariffs on them . And those Liberals saying no deal until he is gone or the Democrats take back power need to realize even the Democrats in the US are not there to look after Canada’ s interests. We Canadians need to be pragmatic and realize we cannot trust any of them . If it means no deal so be it .. we adjust and start charging the USA full pop on everything , oil , gas ,potash ,lumber , etc …no more discounted pricing .We make new deals with countries we can trust to keep their word ….it will be tough but that is the only thing we can do .
Great column Fred, the urgency to establish a strong foothold has never been greater. And all the while the Alberta MAPLE MAGA's are throwing a wrench into our PM's efforts to plot a course for Canada to survive. More than ever before, unity across our country is what is necessary to withstand the assault coming from the Trump authoritarian state.
Thanks, Frank.
I think you've nailed the real issue.
Whatever our political differences, this is the worst possible time for Canadians to be pulling in opposite directions.
A country under pressure needs more than strong leadership... it needs a sense of common purpose.
Thanks Fred and Frank. What bothers me most about the chaos the pm is under is the traitorous Danielle Smith. We must get her out of there. Carney is working so hard to make Canada stronger and she and her maplemaggots throw a wrench into things. 😞
🇨🇦💙 Our biggest assets? Our Premieres are united. We are united.
Carney is a pragmatic crisis manager who combines steady leadership, financial expertise, and a bias for action when duty calls. This will get messy. Please donate to your local food banks and ELBOWS UP.🫶🏼
🇨🇦💙 The WTO’s dispute system has been badly weakened because the U.S. has long blocked appointments to its appellate body, which means cases can run into a dead end even when a panel rules against Washington.
But Carney excels in crisis, here’s the groundwork. Carney’s asked the premieres to prepare a list of sanctions/tariffs that he’ll configure into a pre-announced package that’s ready to snap into place on August 19. Just like the last round, he’ll handpick the red and purple states that causes the worst damage for MAGA. Of course he’ll let Doug Ford off the leash to do something big and flashy (like the Reagan tariff debacle) Alberta? Carney controls the actual federal retaliation, negotiations with the U.S., and any Canada-wide support package. Alberta can’t block that, but Danielle can complain. Big whoop. She’s facing a summer of wildfires, floods and severe weather that’ll require fed funds.
Thanks, Roxy.
That’s the heart of it... preparation, unity, and making sure any retaliation lands where it hurts politically instead of just making noise.
Carney looks like he understands that this won’t be won with chest-thumping.
It’ll be won with leverage, timing, and a country willing to hold the line.
I would like to see Premiers Mo and Smith get on Team Canada. Neither wants to use the tools (oil and gas, potash, uranium) they have. I listened to Smith today. Her plan is to treat the US with kid gloves while at the same time, taking a 2×4 to the head of the Canadian government. She wants to send them more oil not less. She would sell us out. Tell me again that she is not a separatist.
That's exactly it, Roxy.
Whatever province we're talking about, Canada is strongest when we negotiate as one country, not thirteen separate agendas.
The more united we are at home, the stronger our hand is abroad.
The thing to be cautious about here, is that if we just "turn off the taps" or "don't sell potash", etc., then two (very bad) things happen, while we get a few moments of satisfaction watching Americans freak.
1a. WTO recognizes these actions as improper -- just as improper as what Trump is doing to us. So when the actions are adjudicated, both countries get slaps on the wrists, and have to "make restitution" to each other. If we don't just "turn off the taps", then the US is the bad guy and has to make restitution to us. (the challenge is, to do a turn off the taps, but without actually DOING that -- the easy one (that WTO would accept) is SELL the Oil/Potash/Uranium to some other customer, preferably at market prices (remember, Oil sent south is discounted). That's defensible. USA would have oil shortage (spikes the price before midterms), OR would have to pay us market price (which still spikes the price down there). Only drawback is then they would likely challenge Canada for "subsidizing the cost of oil elsewhere", as TMX costs are heavily subsidized -- (and WTO would agree). They don't do this now because their discount price is lower, so TMX doesn't matter to them. But if the discount disappears . . . .
1b. (this is more important than above!): Carney's been flying around the world, pitching Canada as a stable, reliable, rule-of-law-based trading partner / defence partner, etc. If we do the "tit for tat" with turning off taps, etc., then WE get perceived as being NO DIFFERENT than USA, if there's a dispute. Other countries/investors then don't see Canada as "reliable, rule-of-law" etc., even if they know why we're retaliating to the bully. What scores us points is doing the retaliation appropriate/legally.
2. Trump/Republicans DESPERATELY need SBW (Some Big Wins) before their midterm election. So, "winning the Iran War" would work -- but so would "thrashing those evil, exploitive, don't-fall-for-their-I'm-Sorry crap" Canadians, who are "doing economic harm". (they would then say, in dealing with this, that "Only Trump/Republicans can deal with all of these threats to America! Dems are communists, remember?"). And (worse) if we actually turn off oil, withhold uranium/potash, turn of electricity, etc., that WOULD give them a real "national emergency" (right before midterms) -- and I could see them rationalizing strategic border incursions to "turn the taps back on", and then argue it out in courts/conflict later. Might even give him the excuse to cancel the midterms (which Constitutionally, he can't - but that doesn't seem to stop him). So we certainly do NOT want to become THAT excuse for his/their success!
Short of it, this doesn't mean we don't take the fight to him and do "something" in response -- we must! But this needs strategy.
Good thing Carney's the world's preeminent macroeconomist (at a government level), and has forgotten more about all this trade stuff than most others with Ph,Ds remember (or at least the likes of Navarro, Bessant, Hessant, and Grier).
Excellent breakdown, Grant.
That’s the difference between retaliation and strategy.
Canada has to make the U.S. feel the cost without handing Trump a propaganda win, a legal escape hatch, or an excuse to paint us as equally reckless.
The smart move isn’t shutting everything off.
It’s redirecting leverage, charging full value, and staying the reliable adult in the room.
That’s a much harder game... and exactly why Carney matters.
You raise good points, Mr. Rowson. If Canada were to halt or severely restrict crude and potash sales to the US, violating WTO rules would apply, further retaliation by the US would be guaranteed. They do have leverage. Without data, I understand that much of the supply of refined gasoline and other petroleum derivatives is exported by the US to Canada. Indeed, every action in life has a consequence.
Exactly, Scott.
That's why this has to be a chess match, not a bar fight.
Every move has consequences, which is why Canada needs to use its leverage carefully, legally, and strategically.
The goal isn't to make headlines for a day... it's to come out stronger when this is over.
I don't think we would have to turn the taps off per se. We could just turn them down or take some off-line for maintenance. It would still decrease the amount of crude sent but not so much as to cripple them, just give them a kick in the knee so to speak.
Exactly! Some of this is just hinting/threatening what COULD happen . . . .
Deciding how to fuc* with Trump, what a beautiful place to be. 🌺
I believe DS is a separatist too. We are finding out more about the leaders of this movement and they seem to be a bunch of misfits and criminals. Carney today shut her down regarding the equalization payments. He didn't disagree they need looking at but they won't be addressed until 2029. The process will likely be followed.
I am excited with the way Canada has reached out to new trading partners. Trump has damaged the US so bad, how long will it take for the US to recover? That time would only hurt Canada more if we didnt start to move forward. Nothing lasts forever.
PM Carney is moving us in the right direction. Proud to be Canadian.
Yes. Please donate to the food bank
Well said, Kathy.
Diversifying our trade isn't about turning our backs on anyone... it's about making sure Canada's future isn't dependent on any one country.
And yes, supporting our local food banks is one way we can help each other through whatever comes next. Proud to be Canadian.
Kathy, Roxy, great to call for action for donations to food banks. I set up an automatic monthly credit card donation to our local food bank since there are so many people in need. I think that any Canadians who can afford a small amount per month should consider helping their neighbours in this way. Small donations from many people can really make a difference.
Thanks, Frank.
That's a practical way to help, and those monthly donations give food banks something just as important as money... predictability.
If enough of us do a little, together we can make a real difference.
Maybe Canada should gain total control of its future by leaving CUSMA. Therd would no longer be any compliance restrictions. Trade with the US on resources would in all likelihood continue but hopefully with a national wealth fund excise tax attatched. No CUSMA commitments allows Csnada to do trade agreements with anyone it wants including China of we so choose. No longer having to play in accordance with rules developed to protect the USA over its trading partners. Also bting back the 17.5% industrial products tarif to protect Canadian industry and necessity and industrial reinvention will make Canada Great.
Interesting perspective, Larry.
I think one lesson from all this is that Canada needs more strategic flexibility than we've had in the past.
Whether that ultimately means reforming CUSMA or moving beyond it is a debate worth having... but our long-term goal should be the same... building a stronger, more self-reliant Canadian economy.
I have never voted Liberal in my life … but all these conservatives saying we need a deal need to step back and look at the full picture … Trump will not honour a deal longer than a week ask any the countries that agreed to deals he immediately broke them and put tariffs on them . And those Liberals saying no deal until he is gone or the Democrats take back power need to realize even the Democrats in the US are not there to look after Canada’ s interests. We Canadians need to be pragmatic and realize we cannot trust any of them . If it means no deal so be it .. we adjust and start charging the USA full pop on everything , oil , gas ,potash ,lumber , etc …no more discounted pricing .We make new deals with countries we can trust to keep their word ….it will be tough but that is the only thing we can do .