What looked like a temporary trade dispute is becoming something much bigger. Ottawa is now building a future that assumes the United States may no longer be a dependable partner.
Great column Fred, the urgency to establish a strong foothold has never been greater. And all the while the Alberta MAPLE MAGA's are throwing a wrench into our PM's efforts to plot a course for Canada to survive. More than ever before, unity across our country is what is necessary to withstand the assault coming from the Trump authoritarian state.
🇨🇦💙 Our biggest assets? Our Premieres are united. We are united.
Carney is a pragmatic crisis manager who combines steady leadership, financial expertise, and a bias for action when duty calls. This will get messy. Please donate to your local food banks and ELBOWS UP.🫶🏼
🇨🇦💙 The WTO’s dispute system has been badly weakened because the U.S. has long blocked appointments to its appellate body, which means cases can run into a dead end even when a panel rules against Washington.
But Carney excels in crisis, here’s the groundwork. Carney’s asked the premieres to prepare a list of sanctions/tariffs that he’ll configure into a pre-announced package that’s ready to snap into place on August 19. Just like the last round, he’ll handpick the red and purple states that causes the worst damage for MAGA. Of course he’ll let Doug Ford off the leash to do something big and flashy (like the Reagan tariff debacle) Alberta? Carney controls the actual federal retaliation, negotiations with the U.S., and any Canada-wide support package. Alberta can’t block that, but Danielle can complain. Big whoop. She’s facing a summer of wildfires, floods and severe weather that’ll require fed funds.
I would like to see Premiers Mo and Smith get on Team Canada. Neither wants to use the tools (oil and gas, potash, uranium) they have. I listened to Smith today. Her plan is to treat the US with kid gloves while at the same time, taking a 2×4 to the head of the Canadian government. She wants to send them more oil not less. She would sell us out. Tell me again that she is not a separatist.
The thing to be cautious about here, is that if we just "turn off the taps" or "don't sell potash", etc., then two (very bad) things happen, while we get a few moments of satisfaction watching Americans freak.
1a. WTO recognizes these actions as improper -- just as improper as what Trump is doing to us. So when the actions are adjudicated, both countries get slaps on the wrists, and have to "make restitution" to each other. If we don't just "turn off the taps", then the US is the bad guy and has to make restitution to us. (the challenge is, to do a turn off the taps, but without actually DOING that -- the easy one (that WTO would accept) is SELL the Oil/Potash/Uranium to some other customer, preferably at market prices (remember, Oil sent south is discounted). That's defensible. USA would have oil shortage (spikes the price before midterms), OR would have to pay us market price (which still spikes the price down there). Only drawback is then they would likely challenge the US for "subsidizing the cost of oil elsewhere", as TMX costs are heavily subsidized -- (and WTO would agree). They don't do this now because their discount price is lower, so TMX doesn't matter to them. But if the discount disappears . . . .
1b. (this is more important than above!): Carney's been flying around the world, pitching Canada as a stable, reliable, rule-of-law-based trading partner / defence partner, etc. If we do the "tit for tat" with turning off taps, etc., then WE get perceived as being NO DIFFERENT than USA, if there's a dispute. Other countries/investors then don't see Canada as "reliable, rule-of-law" etc., even if they know why we're retaliating to the bully. What scores us points is doing the retaliation appropriate/legally.
2. Trump/Republicans DESPERATELY need SBW (Some Big Wins) before their midterm election. So, "winning the Iran War" would work -- but so would "thrashing those evil, exploitive, don't-fall-for-their-I'm-Sorry crap" Canadians, who are "doing economic harm". (they would then say, in dealing with this, that "Only Trump/Republicans can deal with all of these threats to America! Dems are communists, remember?"). And (worse) if we actually turn off oil, withhold uranium/potash, turn of electricity, etc., that WOULD give them a real "national emergency" (right before midterms) -- and I could see them rationalizing strategic border incursions to "turn the taps back on", and then argue it out in courts/conflict later. Might even give him the excuse to cancel the midterms (which Constitutionally, he can't - but that doesn't seem to stop him). So we certainly do NOT want to become THAT excuse for his/their success!
Short of it, this doesn't mean we don't take the fight to him and do "something" in response -- we must! But this needs strategy.
Good thing Carney's the world's preeminent macroeconomist (at a government level), and has forgotten more about all this trade stuff than most others with Ph,Ds remember (or at least the likes of Navarro, Bessant, Hessant, and Grier).
I am excited with the way Canada has reached out to new trading partners. Trump has damaged the US so bad, how long will it take for the US to recover? That time would only hurt Canada more if we didnt start to move forward. Nothing lasts forever.
PM Carney is moving us in the right direction. Proud to be Canadian.
Kathy, Roxy, great to call for action for donations to food banks. I set up an automatic monthly credit card donation to our local food bank since there are so many people in need. I think that any Canadians who can afford a small amount per month should consider helping their neighbours in this way. Small donations from many people can really make a difference.
Great column Fred, the urgency to establish a strong foothold has never been greater. And all the while the Alberta MAPLE MAGA's are throwing a wrench into our PM's efforts to plot a course for Canada to survive. More than ever before, unity across our country is what is necessary to withstand the assault coming from the Trump authoritarian state.
🇨🇦💙 Our biggest assets? Our Premieres are united. We are united.
Carney is a pragmatic crisis manager who combines steady leadership, financial expertise, and a bias for action when duty calls. This will get messy. Please donate to your local food banks and ELBOWS UP.🫶🏼
🇨🇦💙 The WTO’s dispute system has been badly weakened because the U.S. has long blocked appointments to its appellate body, which means cases can run into a dead end even when a panel rules against Washington.
But Carney excels in crisis, here’s the groundwork. Carney’s asked the premieres to prepare a list of sanctions/tariffs that he’ll configure into a pre-announced package that’s ready to snap into place on August 19. Just like the last round, he’ll handpick the red and purple states that causes the worst damage for MAGA. Of course he’ll let Doug Ford off the leash to do something big and flashy (like the Reagan tariff debacle) Alberta? Carney controls the actual federal retaliation, negotiations with the U.S., and any Canada-wide support package. Alberta can’t block that, but Danielle can complain. Big whoop. She’s facing a summer of wildfires, floods and severe weather that’ll require fed funds.
I would like to see Premiers Mo and Smith get on Team Canada. Neither wants to use the tools (oil and gas, potash, uranium) they have. I listened to Smith today. Her plan is to treat the US with kid gloves while at the same time, taking a 2×4 to the head of the Canadian government. She wants to send them more oil not less. She would sell us out. Tell me again that she is not a separatist.
The thing to be cautious about here, is that if we just "turn off the taps" or "don't sell potash", etc., then two (very bad) things happen, while we get a few moments of satisfaction watching Americans freak.
1a. WTO recognizes these actions as improper -- just as improper as what Trump is doing to us. So when the actions are adjudicated, both countries get slaps on the wrists, and have to "make restitution" to each other. If we don't just "turn off the taps", then the US is the bad guy and has to make restitution to us. (the challenge is, to do a turn off the taps, but without actually DOING that -- the easy one (that WTO would accept) is SELL the Oil/Potash/Uranium to some other customer, preferably at market prices (remember, Oil sent south is discounted). That's defensible. USA would have oil shortage (spikes the price before midterms), OR would have to pay us market price (which still spikes the price down there). Only drawback is then they would likely challenge the US for "subsidizing the cost of oil elsewhere", as TMX costs are heavily subsidized -- (and WTO would agree). They don't do this now because their discount price is lower, so TMX doesn't matter to them. But if the discount disappears . . . .
1b. (this is more important than above!): Carney's been flying around the world, pitching Canada as a stable, reliable, rule-of-law-based trading partner / defence partner, etc. If we do the "tit for tat" with turning off taps, etc., then WE get perceived as being NO DIFFERENT than USA, if there's a dispute. Other countries/investors then don't see Canada as "reliable, rule-of-law" etc., even if they know why we're retaliating to the bully. What scores us points is doing the retaliation appropriate/legally.
2. Trump/Republicans DESPERATELY need SBW (Some Big Wins) before their midterm election. So, "winning the Iran War" would work -- but so would "thrashing those evil, exploitive, don't-fall-for-their-I'm-Sorry crap" Canadians, who are "doing economic harm". (they would then say, in dealing with this, that "Only Trump/Republicans can deal with all of these threats to America! Dems are communists, remember?"). And (worse) if we actually turn off oil, withhold uranium/potash, turn of electricity, etc., that WOULD give them a real "national emergency" (right before midterms) -- and I could see them rationalizing strategic border incursions to "turn the taps back on", and then argue it out in courts/conflict later. Might even give him the excuse to cancel the midterms (which Constitutionally, he can't - but that doesn't seem to stop him). So we certainly do NOT want to become THAT excuse for his/their success!
Short of it, this doesn't mean we don't take the fight to him and do "something" in response -- we must! But this needs strategy.
Good thing Carney's the world's preeminent macroeconomist (at a government level), and has forgotten more about all this trade stuff than most others with Ph,Ds remember (or at least the likes of Navarro, Bessant, Hessant, and Grier).
I am excited with the way Canada has reached out to new trading partners. Trump has damaged the US so bad, how long will it take for the US to recover? That time would only hurt Canada more if we didnt start to move forward. Nothing lasts forever.
PM Carney is moving us in the right direction. Proud to be Canadian.
Yes. Please donate to the food bank
Kathy, Roxy, great to call for action for donations to food banks. I set up an automatic monthly credit card donation to our local food bank since there are so many people in need. I think that any Canadians who can afford a small amount per month should consider helping their neighbours in this way. Small donations from many people can really make a difference.