There is a strange idea floating around Canadian politics.
That getting a deal with Donald Trump is automatically better than not getting one.
It isn’t.
A bad deal doesn’t become a good deal because somebody puts two flags behind a podium and calls a press conference.
And as the August 19 tariff deadline approaches, Canada and the United States still don’t have an agreement.
That may tell us something important.
Canada isn’t negotiating simply to get Donald Trump’s signature.
Canada is negotiating to protect Canada’s interests.
Those are two very different objectives.
The Clock Is Ticking
The United States has formally announced additional 50% tariffs on certain Canadian products beginning August 19.
Meanwhile, Canadian negotiators have continued working Washington.
The reporting described in the material I reviewed says the Americans put forward another proposal that would reduce some sectoral tariffs… but apparently not enough to satisfy Canada.
So there was no handshake.
No victory lap.
No giant DEAL! announcement.
Good.
Because Canadians need to get something straight.
Walking away from a lousy offer is also negotiating.
We’ve spent so much time hearing about deadlines that it’s easy to start treating the deadline itself as the objective.
It isn’t.
The objective is getting an arrangement Canada can live with.
Trump Already Had a Deal With Canada
Here’s the part that should make every Canadian slightly suspicious of the phrase just make a deal.
Donald Trump already negotiated one.
CUSMA.
He signed it during his first presidency and celebrated it as an enormous accomplishment.
Yet North American trade has once again been dragged into tariffs, threats and negotiations.
That’s worth remembering.
Because Canada isn’t merely deciding what concessions might produce an agreement today.
It has to consider what that agreement will be worth tomorrow.
A deal with an unreliable trading partner carries a different value than a deal with a reliable one.
That’s not ideology.
That’s business.
Any old salesman knows it.
Canada’s Bigger Strategy Is Starting to Show
This is where the story gets more interesting than another tariff deadline.
Canada is trying to change the underlying relationship.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has set a target of doubling Canadian exports to markets outside the United States over the decade.
Canada and Alberta are also advancing plans for additional west-coast energy-export capacity.
That’s the long game.
Canada isn’t going to stop trading with America.
That would be economic lunacy.
The United States is our neighbour, our largest trading partner and part of deeply integrated continental supply chains.
But there’s a hell of a difference between trading heavily with somebody and having no practical alternative to trading with them.
That’s where leverage comes from.
Options.
And Canada Has Some Pretty Good Options
Energy is one of them.
Oil.
Natural gas.
Potash.
Critical minerals.
Electricity.
Resources the United States consumes because American businesses and consumers need them.
That doesn’t mean Canada should wake up tomorrow morning and shut off pipelines.
Carney himself has warned about the danger of damaging Canada’s reputation as a reliable supplier.
He’s right.
Reliability is an asset.
But here’s something else that’s true…
Something can be valuable negotiating leverage without ever being switched off.
The fellow sitting across the table merely needs to know you have choices.
Canada’s strongest energy strategy therefore may not be threatening America.
It may be making America less indispensable.
Build west.
Build east.
Build ports.
Build pipelines and transmission where they make economic sense.
Sell more LNG, minerals, manufactured goods, agriculture and Canadian expertise to Europe and Asia.
Give Canadian producers more customers.
Every new customer changes the negotiation with the old one.
That’s the Part Trump Can’t Tariff Away
Trump can impose another tariff.
He can announce another investigation.
He can invent another deadline.
He can demand another concession.
What he cannot easily do is stop Canada from rebuilding its economy around a simple lesson we’ve learned the hard way…
Never let one customer become your business plan.
For decades, selling south was easy.
The world’s richest market sat right beside us.
Of course we sold there.
We’d have been fools not to.
But convenience slowly became dependence.
Trump didn’t create that vulnerability.
He exposed it.
And strangely enough, that may eventually turn out to be one of the best things he ever did for Canada.
Because we’re finally doing something about it.
No Deal Can Be Better Than a Bad Deal
Nobody should celebrate tariffs.
Canadian companies and Canadian workers can get hurt.
Neither should anyone pretend economic diversification happens overnight.
Ports aren’t built Tuesday because somebody made a speech Monday.
Pipelines don’t appear next Thursday.
New customers aren’t found by Friday afternoon.
This is years of work.
But that is precisely why Canada shouldn’t surrender long-term leverage merely to make a short-term deadline disappear.
August 19 will come.
There may be an agreement before then.
There may not.
There may be more negotiations afterward.
But the question I care about isn’t:
Did Canada get a deal?
It’s…
Did Canada get a deal worth having?
If the answer is no, keep building alternatives.
Because the strongest Canada at Trump’s negotiating table isn’t the Canada threatening to walk away from America.
It’s the Canada that someday genuinely can.
The Recap…
Trump has another tariff deadline aimed at Canada.
Canada still doesn’t have a deal.
That isn’t necessarily failure.
Sometimes the most powerful word in a negotiation is no… especially when you’re busy building enough alternatives to mean it.
The Gut-Punch…
Canada doesn’t need to stop selling to America.
Canada needs to stop needing America to buy.
Source credit:
Research notes derived from the supplied creator transcript, independently checked against Government of Canada, White House and current Canadian news reporting.
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The entire US foundation of stability, trustworthiness, and predictability finally unravelled with the reelection of '47'. Canada has, by consequence, learned that we cannot as a nation, spool our nation's future upon a core that is actively collapsing inward. Trade, by necessity will continue between Canada and the USA, but it should never and will never revert to the 'old ways'.
Let’s agree that Trump probably doesn’t recall he signed an agreement already (CUSMA). Given that probable lapse in memory, I am thrilled Canada did not fold. This type of post-contract next phase negotiation is a long standing Trump play. Check with former contractor firms he dealt with during Trump tower construction. It was common knowledge in the 1990s.