Canada Didn’t Swing Back. It Let Washington Punch Itself.
Washington tried to tax us into submission. Instead, they jammed their own housing market.
Here’s the part nobody in Washington wants to admit…
They tried to punish Canada…
…and ended up kneecapping their own housing market.
Classic.
For decades, the U.S. lumber lobby has sung the same song…
“Canada cheats. Crown land. Cheap stumpage. Unfair wood.”
Fine. We’ve heard it since cassette tapes were a thing.
But in 2025, they didn’t just complain.
They went nuclear.
First came the anti-dumping duties.
Then countervailing duties.
Then the “national security” excuse.
By the time they were done stacking taxes, Canadian softwood lumber was staring down almost 45% in combined tariffs.
Forty. Five. Percent.
That’s not policy.
That’s a bar fight.
The idea was simple…
Make Canadian wood so expensive that American mills win by default.
Only problem?
Reality showed up.
The Plan Blew Up Before It Started
Canadian producers saw the hit coming a mile away.
So what did they do?
They shoved as much lumber across the border as humanly possible before the tariffs kicked in.
Warehouses filled.
Yards filled.
Trucks lined up like it was Boxing Day at Costco.
Instead of scarcity…
Washington created a glut.
They tried to dam the river after we’d already floated the logs downstream.
Too late, boys.
Then Rates Crushed the Party
At the exact same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates to fight inflation.
Mortgage costs shot through the roof.
And when mortgages go up…
Housing slows down.
And when housing slows down…
guess what nobody needs?
More lumber.
So now American mills weren’t dealing with “too little Canadian wood.”
They were drowning in too much wood and too few buyers.
Prices didn’t spike.
They sagged.
The “protective tariffs” turned into a self-inflicted wedgie.
Canada Didn’t Retaliate
Here’s the move I love.
We didn’t scream.
We didn’t slap on revenge tariffs.
We didn’t get emotional.
We went lawyer-quiet.
Canada marched straight into the dispute system under the trade agreement and filed legal challenges.
Not chest-thumping.
Paperwork.
Panels.
Appeals.
Technical reviews.
Death by a thousand footnotes.
It’s the economic version of judo — use their own momentum against them.
And here’s the kicker…
Those cases can drag on for years, which means American importers pay huge tariffs now… while knowing a ruling later might blow the whole thing up.
Businesses hate uncertainty more than taxes.
So the market freezes.
Smart. Cold. Surgical.
Very Canadian.
Now Washington’s Fighting Itself
This is where it gets funny.
Two American groups are basically yelling across the same table…
Sawmills:
“Keep the tariffs! Protect us!”
Homebuilders…
“Are you nuts? You’re making houses more expensive!”
And they’re both right.
The U.S. imports about a third of its lumber… mostly from Canada.
You can’t choke off that supply without making every 2×4, every deck, every new house pricier.
So the government tried to help one industry…
…and accidentally smacked the entire housing market with a frying pan.
That’s not strategy.
That’s stepping on your own rake.
The Scorecard
What the U.S. wanted…
Fewer Canadian imports
Higher prices
Stronger U.S. mills
What they got…
Flooded supply
Weak demand
Flat/soft prices
A civil war between their own industries
And Canada dragging them into court
If this were hockey, the ref would’ve called it an own goal.
Bottom Line
They brought a sledgehammer.
We brought a calculator and a lawyer.
Guess which one wins long term?
Sometimes the smartest punch…
…is stepping aside and letting the other guy hit the wall.
Source credit: Based on reporting and trade data surrounding the 2025–26 Canada–U.S. softwood lumber dispute.
🔎 The GeezerWise Standard
This space is built on disciplined thinking.
Facts over spin.
Verification before amplification.
Good-faith discussion over tribal noise.
I use AI tools to help shape my spoken drafts into clear writing.
The judgment, conclusions, and final message are mine.
If you’re new here, this explains how I decide what’s worth sharing:
How I Decide What’s Worth Sharing → [link]
💌 Subscribe at GeezerWise.com to receive future letters:
www.geezerwise.com/subscribe
— Fred Ferguson
GeezerWise
#CanadaStrong
tRump: repeatedly hits himself
Carney: Stop hitting yourself
tRump: Repeatedly Hits Himself
Carney: I'm done playing this silly game.
PM Mark Carney began by making his first official trip to Europe not the US. From the get go it was the plan to move away from the US. His speech in Davos clarified his message and future intent.
Another case of tail wagging the dog. The USA sawmill industry is much smaller than the USA housing industry. To protect the smaller industry, they screw the larger industry.