PM Mark Carney began by making his first official trip to Europe not the US. From the get go it was the plan to move away from the US. His speech in Davos clarified his message and future intent.
This is very sad. We have been friends and trading partners for a long time but I understand the situation that you are in dealing with a man that is losing his mind.
Another case of tail wagging the dog. The USA sawmill industry is much smaller than the USA housing industry. To protect the smaller industry, they screw the larger industry.
It seems to me that the only way to send all that lumber to the US before the tariffs kicked in was for Americans to order/ buy all that lumber, so it would be the Americans creating their own oversupply problem. Am I missing something here?
“You’re not missing anything, Ken. The tariffs caused a buying panic. Americans stocked up, warehouses filled, then demand cooled. Oversupply wasn’t Canada dumping... it was buyers hoarding. Economics beats politics every time.”
The tariffs are imposed upon the premise that all lumber from the same species of tree is the same. But, all lumber is not equal - the further north it is grown, the slower it grows and the more tightly packed are its growth rings and hence the stronger it is.
This is why, because Canada is further north than the USA, in general its lumber is a superior, stronger, product for building.
Yes, there’s a push... by certain U.S. industry groups... to scrap or reform the USMCA binational dispute settlement panels as part of broader trade negotiations, including softwood lumber.
But it hasn’t yet become an official U.S. government demand in formal negotiations... it’s mainly industry pressure and part of a bigger review process.
Great post, very informative and educational, learned even more in the comments, like Canadian wood grows slower, never knew that, now I do. Oh BTW instant follow.
Hi Fred, thanks for writing this. As far as using AI goes, if you let AI write it for you, that's bad. If you use AI to record your dictation and clean up punctuation, as you do, that's fine. Personally I despise AI and won't use it but I (74) can still touch type so as time goes on, my attitude might change. In the meantime keep up the good work, whatever way works for you.
tRump: repeatedly hits himself
Carney: Stop hitting yourself
tRump: Repeatedly Hits Himself
Carney: I'm done playing this silly game.
PM Mark Carney began by making his first official trip to Europe not the US. From the get go it was the plan to move away from the US. His speech in Davos clarified his message and future intent.
Exactly Alicia.
While they were busy shadowboxing,
Mark Carney quietly packed a suitcase and went shopping for new partners.
First trip to Europe.
Davos message crystal clear.
Less drama. More diversification.
Adults at the table don’t yell... they reposition.
This is very sad. We have been friends and trading partners for a long time but I understand the situation that you are in dealing with a man that is losing his mind.
Another case of tail wagging the dog. The USA sawmill industry is much smaller than the USA housing industry. To protect the smaller industry, they screw the larger industry.
100%.
It’s economic genius...
“Let’s protect 50,000 jobs by making houses unaffordable for 50 million people.”
Tail... Meet dog.
💯
It seems to me that the only way to send all that lumber to the US before the tariffs kicked in was for Americans to order/ buy all that lumber, so it would be the Americans creating their own oversupply problem. Am I missing something here?
“You’re not missing anything, Ken. The tariffs caused a buying panic. Americans stocked up, warehouses filled, then demand cooled. Oversupply wasn’t Canada dumping... it was buyers hoarding. Economics beats politics every time.”
I do find it amusing that more often than not being the “quiet one” is often the biggest advantage in things like this
Ya we’re still outnumbered militarily yet they throw so much at us without realizing they’re actually wasting resources
Exactly Kyle.
The loud guy swings first.
The quiet guy keeps his balance and lets him tire himself out.
We’re not outgunned…
we’re just not dumb enough to waste punches.
I do like the self-inflicted wedgie analogy.
However, the Trumpists are doubling down and have done a self-inflicted turkey-walker. And not just in the Softwood Lumber arena.
😂 “Self-inflicted turkey-walker” might be the most accurate economic term I’ve heard all week.
The wedgie was painful but survivable.
This new phase feels like running face-first into your own rake… repeatedly… then blaming the rake.
What gets me is it’s not just one policy mistake.
It’s the pattern.
Tariffs on allies.
Trade fights with neighbours.
Punishing your own supply chains.
That’s not strategy.
That’s punching yourself and calling it toughness.
Even Donald Trump’s softwood lumber fights fall into that bucket.
They slap tariffs on Canadian lumber…
then American homebuilders pay more…
then housing gets pricier…
then everyone acts surprised.
Congratulations... you just taxed your own citizens.
We didn’t shove them.
They tripped over their own boots.
All we really have to do is stay steady and not follow them into the ditch.
Sometimes the smartest move isn’t fighting harder…
It’s just stepping aside and letting the other guy wrestle himself.
Agreed.
All I can see in my head now is Graham Chapman as Colin ‘Bomber’ Harris wrestling himself in the skit from Monty Python Live at the Hollywood Bowl.
Is there anyway we can send them more rakes? It might speed the process of the regime collapsing, and give us some comic relief.
The tariffs are imposed upon the premise that all lumber from the same species of tree is the same. But, all lumber is not equal - the further north it is grown, the slower it grows and the more tightly packed are its growth rings and hence the stronger it is.
This is why, because Canada is further north than the USA, in general its lumber is a superior, stronger, product for building.
An educated president would appreciate this.
Phil you nailed something most politicians will never understand because they’ve never built anything with their hands.
Wood isn’t just “wood.”
Trees aren’t grown in a factory.
Up north, trees grow slow.
Cold winters. Short seasons.
Tighter growth rings. Denser grain. Stronger boards.
It’s like comparing a slow-cooked roast to a microwave burger.
Both are “beef.”
Only one actually holds together.
Canadian lumber is tougher because nature took her time with it.
But tariffs treat it like it’s all identical... like every 2x4 on the planet came out of the same vending machine.
That’s what happens when policy is written by people who’ve never swung a hammer.
You don’t need a trade war.
You need someone who understands how wood actually grows.
Fred. I heard that the US wants the law panel tossed out for future negotiations to proceed with solving the lumber dispute. Is this true?
Yes, there’s a push... by certain U.S. industry groups... to scrap or reform the USMCA binational dispute settlement panels as part of broader trade negotiations, including softwood lumber.
But it hasn’t yet become an official U.S. government demand in formal negotiations... it’s mainly industry pressure and part of a bigger review process.
Thank you for that answer. So it hasn’t turned out to be a threat yet by the Trump administration..yet..
Trump: “We have massive fields of lumber” not.
Yeah… that line made me spit my coffee too.
“We have massive fields of lumber.”
That’s not how trees work.
That’s Minecraft.
Forests aren’t wheat fields you plant in April and harvest in September.
Real lumber takes decades.
Sometimes a century.
Meanwhile Canada grows slow, cold-weather timber that’s denser and stronger... which is exactly why U.S. builders buy it.
It’s not charity.
It’s quality.
Half the stuff Donald Trump says about trade sounds like it came from a guy who’s only seen wood at Home Depot.
You can’t tariff biology.
Trees don’t care about speeches.
Great post, very informative and educational, learned even more in the comments, like Canadian wood grows slower, never knew that, now I do. Oh BTW instant follow.
I appreciate that... thank you.
And honestly?
That’s exactly what I hope these posts do.
Not “win arguments.”
Just help people walk away thinking,
“Huh… didn’t know that.”
Little stuff like the wood fact is a perfect example.
Slower growth up here = tighter grain = stronger lumber.
Cold weather makes tougher trees.
Kind of a Canadian metaphor if you think about it. 😄
Glad you’re here... and welcome aboard.
Pull up a chair. The comments section is half the fun.
Hi Fred, thanks for writing this. As far as using AI goes, if you let AI write it for you, that's bad. If you use AI to record your dictation and clean up punctuation, as you do, that's fine. Personally I despise AI and won't use it but I (74) can still touch type so as time goes on, my attitude might change. In the meantime keep up the good work, whatever way works for you.
Hi Keith... I appreciate that. Truly.
And honestly, I agree with you more than you might think.
If AI is thinking for you… yeah, that’s a problem.
If it replaces your voice… even worse.
Then it’s just plastic words.
The way I see it, I’m still doing the thinking, the arguing, the connecting dots.
AI just saves my old fingers from revolting. 😄
At 73, with the shaky hands and two-finger typing, it’s basically my spell-checker on steroids and a very patient editor.
Same brain.
Same opinions.
Just fewer typos.
Funny thing is… I don’t see it as “AI writing.”
I see it like power steering.
The car still goes where you point it... it just doesn’t wreck your shoulders getting there.
And hey... if you’re still touch typing at 74, you’re already ahead of me.
Respect.
I like that power steering analogy. A very good, positive way too look at it. Have a good one.
Great post!
Brilliant!
HAHA!!!😝🤣😵💫
It looks to me like he's trying toscrew the US economy, maybe the country. Didn't Putin say that he would destroy the US from the inside?
I love Canada’s way of doing business!!!
Nice job.