I'm not so sure that TKMS (the German/Norwegian company) responded because of the US "pausing" the joint board. I interpreted it more as a response to the KSS-III proposal from South Korea (which, besides subs, was looking at establishing a military/heavy-duty vehicle manufacturing plant in Canada, if not a Hyundai factory/partnership too.) And with Hanwha Ocean is known for meeting delivery deadlines and promised four subs by 2030 or so. So TKMS had to sharpen their pencils/spreadsheets -- and they did (though bumping two of Germany's and Norway's subs in the production line to do it). And I think, besides doing a lot of the manufacturing in Canada now, they're still bringing Volvo/Audi to the table too, for some aspects of vehicle manufacturing.
But your broad point is really REALLY spot-on: Canada is aggressively being courted!
This will be a very difficult decision: Go with Europe, and we end up with a highly integrated sub-fleet, with the potential for other joint integrations that are even deeper than those in the current NATO. This is hugely significant, giving an integrated sub fleet of 24 boats (12 Canadian, 6 Norwegian, 6 German) with Arctic coverage being the focus.
But with the Korean bid, it's also a chance to do similar naval development in the Asian/Pacific theatre.
Technically/strategically, we want/need to do both. But really can't. This one is going to be tough!
I love love love this post Fred. I have read up on some of it, but, you gathered it all together in your usual spectacular way. I feel like the divorce papers are signed & so much love & respect showed up on our doorstep & waterways, with open hands & hearts, from so many countries who all love Canada & Canadians & our PM, because we all have very similar values. Thank you :)
I'm not so sure that TKMS (the German/Norwegian company) responded because of the US "pausing" the joint board. I interpreted it more as a response to the KSS-III proposal from South Korea (which, besides subs, was looking at establishing a military/heavy-duty vehicle manufacturing plant in Canada, if not a Hyundai factory/partnership too.) And with Hanwha Ocean is known for meeting delivery deadlines and promised four subs by 2030 or so. So TKMS had to sharpen their pencils/spreadsheets -- and they did (though bumping two of Germany's and Norway's subs in the production line to do it). And I think, besides doing a lot of the manufacturing in Canada now, they're still bringing Volvo/Audi to the table too, for some aspects of vehicle manufacturing.
But your broad point is really REALLY spot-on: Canada is aggressively being courted!
This will be a very difficult decision: Go with Europe, and we end up with a highly integrated sub-fleet, with the potential for other joint integrations that are even deeper than those in the current NATO. This is hugely significant, giving an integrated sub fleet of 24 boats (12 Canadian, 6 Norwegian, 6 German) with Arctic coverage being the focus.
But with the Korean bid, it's also a chance to do similar naval development in the Asian/Pacific theatre.
Technically/strategically, we want/need to do both. But really can't. This one is going to be tough!
(Picking Gripens will be a heck of a lot easier!)
Grant, this is exactly the kind of thoughtful pushback I appreciate.
You may very well be right that the Korean bid forced TKMS to suddenly sharpen the pencil... especially given Hanwha’s delivery reputation...
and the broader manufacturing carrots South Korea brought to the table.
And yes… I think the bigger story is what you highlighted...
Canada suddenly being aggressively courted from multiple directions. That alone says something has shifted.
I also agree this feels bigger than a procurement choice now.
Europe offers deep Arctic integration and a tightly linked NATO-adjacent model.
Korea opens a serious Pacific industrial and strategic lane.
Hard to argue against either logic.
You nailed the problem... strategically, Canada probably wants both worlds… but budgets and politics rarely cooperate.
This one won’t be easy.
And yes… the Gripen decision suddenly looks like the easy homework assignment. 😄
I love love love this post Fred. I have read up on some of it, but, you gathered it all together in your usual spectacular way. I feel like the divorce papers are signed & so much love & respect showed up on our doorstep & waterways, with open hands & hearts, from so many countries who all love Canada & Canadians & our PM, because we all have very similar values. Thank you :)
“Divorce papers” made me smile, Patsy. 😊
That line may be closer to the truth than many realize.
I think what people are responding to most is respect...
and Canada finally being treated like a partner worth investing in,
not just assuming we’ll always be standing in the same spot.
Appreciate you reading and always bringing thoughtful comments.
Well, ya know Fred, when they steam 15,000 nautical miles in a submarine to show how serious they are? Just let me grab my coat haha