There is a comforting little story Canadians could tell ourselves right now.
Donald Trump is the problem.
Wait him out.
Eventually Americans elect somebody more reasonable, the temperature comes down, tariffs disappear and Canada and the United States go back to being the friendly neighbours we remember.
I wouldn’t bet the country on it.
And neither should Canada.
Because underneath all the Trump noise, insults and threats is something much bigger:
The United States has interests that don’t disappear when presidents change.
That doesn’t make America our enemy.
It makes America a country.
And Canada had better start behaving like one too.
Gavin Newsom Said Something Canadians Should Hear
California Governor Gavin Newsom has been making the Canadian media rounds.
He’s a very different political animal from Donald Trump.
Respectful toward Canada.
Friendly.
He has criticized Trump’s treatment of this country and talked about the damage the dispute has done to cross-border relationships.
Good.
I’d much rather deal with an American president who respects Canada than one who threatens it.
But respect and economic self-interest are two different things.
When Newsom was asked whether Canadians should expect all the tariffs to disappear under a future Democratic president, he didn’t promise that.
That’s the part worth paying attention to.
Not because Newsom is secretly Trump in a nicer suit.
He isn’t.
But because whoever occupies the White House will still be President of the United States.
Their job is to advance American interests.
Ours is to advance Canadian ones.
We forgot that distinction for a long time.
This Didn’t Start With Trump
Here’s where history becomes inconvenient.
Canadian softwood lumber was facing American duties while Joe Biden was president.
In 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce increased the combined duty rate applying to most Canadian softwood lumber exports from 8.05% to 14.54%.
Canada called those duties unjustified and challenged the American measures.
Trump didn’t invent that dispute.
He inherited it.
The current administration has taken protectionism, tariffs and economic coercion to another level entirely.
But the underlying lesson is older than Trump:
American governments will protect American economic interests when they believe doing so benefits them.
Republican or Democrat.
The language changes.
The smile changes.
Sometimes even the policy changes.
But Canada cannot assume the underlying national interest disappears because somebody nicer moves into the White House.
Then Came the Latest Trade Talks
That lesson became considerably harder to ignore this week.
Canada and the United States appeared to be moving toward an agreement.
Then the negotiations collapsed.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said the United States introduced unacceptable last-minute demands.
Washington blamed Canada.
And instead of signing something simply so everybody could announce a deal, Canada walked away.
Now we’re dealing with 50% American tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, with Canada preparing dollar-for-dollar retaliation.
That’s painful.
Nobody should pretend otherwise.
Canada still sends roughly 70% of its exports to the United States.
You don’t rearrange a trading relationship that large without bruises.
But there’s another danger Canadians need to recognize.
Signing a bad agreement because we’re frightened of temporary economic pain can create permanent economic dependence.
Sometimes walking away from the table isn’t the failure of negotiation.
Sometimes it’s the whole bloody point of negotiating.
This Is Bigger Than Trump
Trump has made Canada’s problem impossible to ignore.
Maybe we should thank him for that much.
For decades, geography spoiled us.
The world’s biggest consumer economy was right next door.
We built roads, pipelines, railways, factories and supply chains around selling south.
It made perfect economic sense.
Until dependence became vulnerability.
Now we’re discovering the difference.
Canada doesn’t need to stop trading with America.
That would be ridiculous.
The United States will remain one of our most important customers and partners.
But there’s a hell of a difference between having your best customer and having your only customer who matters.
That’s what diversification is really about.
Not revenge.
Insurance.
What Happens After Trump?
Suppose a Democrat wins the White House in 2028.
Suppose the insults stop.
Suppose the annexation nonsense disappears.
Suppose Canada once again has an American president who treats our prime minister like the leader of a sovereign ally instead of the manager of a property he’d like to acquire.
Wonderful.
I’ll take it.
But Canada should still keep building ports.
Still expand trade with Europe.
Still deepen relationships across Asia.
Still develop our critical minerals.
Still build energy infrastructure.
Still strengthen east-west Canadian trade.
Still reduce unnecessary dependence on the American market.
Still build our own defence capacity.
Still make decisions based on Canadian interests.
Because the objective isn’t to escape Donald Trump.
The objective is to make sure no American president ever has this much leverage over Canada again.
That’s a completely different project.
And it lasts much longer than one presidency.
Nobody Is Coming to Rescue Canada
I don’t mean that pessimistically.
I mean exactly the opposite.
Canada doesn’t need rescuing.
We’re one of the richest countries on Earth in resources.
We have energy.
Uranium.
Critical minerals.
Agriculture.
Fresh water.
Forests.
Technology.
Manufacturing expertise.
Educated people.
Access to three oceans.
Trade agreements reaching major markets around the world.
And countries that need many of the things we produce.
Our problem was never that Canada couldn’t survive without overwhelming dependence on the United States.
Our problem was that the easy option was so profitable for so long that we never had much reason to find out.
Trump gave us one.
So if America elects somebody friendlier in two years, I’ll welcome the change.
Shake hands.
Repair what can be repaired.
Trade like hell with them.
But don’t tear up the diversification plans.
Don’t dismantle the new relationships.
And for God’s sake, don’t crawl back into the old comfortable dependency because Washington starts saying nice things about us again.
We learned something expensive.
Let’s not pay for the lesson twice.
Trump isn’t the reason Canada needs economic independence.
He’s the reason we finally understood why it matters.
The Recap…
Trump will eventually leave the White House.
Canada’s vulnerability won’t disappear with him.
American presidents will keep defending American interests.
It’s time Canada permanently learned to defend ours.
The Gut-Punch…
The goal isn’t to survive Donald Trump.
It’s to build a Canada that never again has to worry this much about who Americans elect.
Source credit:
Research notes were drawn from a supplied transcript discussing Gavin Newsom’s Canadian media interviews and the Canada–U.S. trade dispute.
Key factual points were independently checked against Government of Canada reporting on U.S. softwood-lumber duties and current reporting from Reuters, Associated Press and other major outlets on the August 2026 collapse of Canada–U.S. trade negotiations.
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I am over it.
Personally, I am not a huge fan of Gavin Newsom, there is something about him I don't trust, but that could just be me......
I agree with this article though, even if the next President is a Democrat, it doesn't mean that Canada can relax again (or any other country, for that matter). IQ47 has certainly made it very clear that it only takes one terrible President in the WH to ruin many, many lives.
For some reason, our PM (Albo in Australia) is still sucking up to IQ47 and I think that is going to cost him the next election. He should take a big leaf out of your PM's book, methinks.