Well, that was quite a night south of the border.
American voters went to the polls on November 3 and handed Donald Trump something he hasn’t been particularly good at accepting.
A defeat.
And not a little one.
Democrats won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The same Republican Party that controlled Washington after Trump’s return to the White House now faces two years of divided government.
Trump still has the presidency. He still has his veto. And he still has an extraordinary ability to make himself the centre of attention.
But come January, he won’t have a friendly Congress waiting to rubber-stamp everything.
That’s a pretty significant change.
And I suspect more than a few Canadians enjoyed watching it happen.
I certainly understand the feeling.
But before we start celebrating like somebody just cancelled every tariff at the border, there’s something worth remembering.
Americans voted to change their Congress. They didn’t vote to change their relationship with Canada.
Those are two very different things.
The voters had their own problems
According to Reuters and the Associated Press, American voters were particularly concerned about the cost of living.
Inflation. Household expenses. The economic consequences of tariffs. The war with Iran.
These weren’t abstract arguments being tossed around television studios.
They were problems people could feel in their wallets.
Trump promised Americans a stronger economy and better deals.
Instead, many voters found themselves paying more for everyday necessities while their president continued telling them how wonderfully everything was going.
Apparently, there comes a point when people stop listening to the sales pitch and start looking at the receipt.
And on November 3, they delivered their verdict.
Now, I wouldn’t pretend every Democratic victory was a referendum on tariffs or Canada.
American voters have plenty of domestic concerns that have nothing to do with us.
But the overall message was unmistakable.
The Republicans lost control of Congress.
And Trump’s ability to govern without serious congressional opposition has taken a substantial hit.
Good.
Accountability is supposed to be part of democracy.
Now comes the Canadian reality check
Here’s where I think Canadians need to be careful.
It’s tempting to look at those election results and imagine Washington might suddenly become reasonable.
Maybe the Democrats will challenge Trump’s trade policies.
Maybe congressional investigations will expose some of the administration’s more questionable decisions.
Maybe the next two years will bring a little less chaos.
All possible.
But none of that guarantees the removal of tariffs on Canadian products.
And even if Democrats eventually win the White House in 2028, there’s no guarantee America will return to the trading relationship we once knew.
Protectionism didn’t begin with Donald Trump.
And it won’t necessarily disappear when he leaves.
American politicians, Republicans and Democrats alike, have constituencies to protect, industries to defend and elections to win.
Canada’s interests don’t automatically become their interests simply because they’re wearing a different party colour.
That’s why something Mark Carney said before the midterms caught my attention.
In an interview published October 30, he made it clear that Canada wasn’t going to sign a trade agreement simply to say it had one.
If a worthwhile deal is available, Canada can move quickly.
If it isn’t, Canada can wait.
Even until another American president takes office.
That’s quite a statement from a Canadian prime minister dealing with our largest trading partner.
And I think it’s the right one.
Because what exactly would we gain by rushing into a bad agreement?
A nice photograph?
A handshake?
A few days of headlines announcing that everything is wonderful again?
We’ve had enough political theatre.
What Canada needs is a trading relationship that actually works.
We have work to do regardless of who runs Washington
I’ve been writing about this for months.
Canada needs more customers.
More domestic manufacturing.
Stronger trade connections with Europe, Asia and other markets.
Better infrastructure to move Canadian products without depending on American routes whenever possible.
And an economy that doesn’t panic every time somebody in Washington decides to threaten us.
None of that happens overnight.
And none of it means we stop trading with the United States.
That would be foolish.
They’re our neighbours, our largest trading partner and an important market for Canadian businesses.
But there’s a difference between having a valuable customer and depending on one customer for your survival.
Any Canadian business owner understands that.
If one customer accounts for most of your revenue, that customer has enormous leverage over you.
If that customer starts changing the rules, demanding concessions and threatening to take their business elsewhere, you’ve got a problem.
You can complain about how unfair they’re being.
Or you can start finding other customers.
Preferably before the next argument.
That’s where Canada finds itself today.
And that’s why I don’t want our future determined by whichever political party happens to control Congress.
The American election changes the politics. Not the geography.
The Democrats’ victory matters.
It could restrain Trump. It could produce more oversight. It could make some of his policies harder to maintain.
But it doesn’t move Canada farther away from the United States.
It doesn’t build a new Canadian factory.
It doesn’t create a new export market.
And it doesn’t guarantee a better trade agreement.
Those are things Canadians still have to work on ourselves.
I hope the election leads to a more sensible Washington.
I hope American businesses and consumers get some relief from policies that have made their lives more expensive.
And I hope Canada and the United States eventually rebuild a relationship based on mutual respect rather than threats.
But hope isn’t an economic strategy.
Carney understands something I think Canadians are increasingly beginning to understand as well.
We can want a good relationship with America without making our future dependent on American politics.
That’s not anti-American.
That’s looking after Canada.
And after everything we’ve watched over the past couple of years, I would have thought that lesson was becoming pretty obvious.
The American people have spoken.
Now they get to find out what their new Congress can accomplish.
Meanwhile, Canada has its own job to finish.
We shouldn’t spend the next two years waiting for Washington to become the country we remember.
We should spend them building the Canada we need.
The Recap…
American voters handed Trump a major defeat. Democrats have won control of both chambers of Congress.
That may change what happens in Washington.
But it doesn’t guarantee better trade terms for Canada.
Our future still depends on what we build here, not who wins down there.
The Gut-Punch…
America changed its Congress overnight. Canada can’t afford to wait for America to change its mind.
Source Credit:
Associated Press… Democrats win the House and Senate — November 4, 2026.
Reuters… Key takeaways from the U.S. midterms — November 4, 2026.
Reuters… Democrats seize Congress in sweeping midterm repudiation — November 4, 2026.
Bloomberg… Carney says no hurry on trade deal if U.S. won’t offer good terms — October 31, 2026.
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I quite agree
Thank you Fred for writing this. I was contemplating writing my own article on this subject. And you are bang on. This does not change anything in the relationship Canada has with the USA.
We MUST focus on our own country and what we can do to improve it, make it safe and make our own path in the world out from under the shadow of the USA.