Canada is retaliating against U.S. tariffs. Europe wants a deeper partnership. Australia and New Zealand want more trade. Something bigger than a tariff fight may be taking shape.
Maybe Canada can do some emergency shipments of diesel fuel to Australia and NZ once Trump cuts them off. That would go a long way towards building up even greater relationships.
I had just read the ILFA column before posting this note to Fred. I read them both every day they post along with Dean Blundell, Robert Reich, and Paul Krugman.
The bigger point for me is that reliability itself is becoming an economic asset.
If Australia or New Zealand suddenly needs an alternative supplier and Canada can help, that’s not just a sale... it’s another brick in a long-term relationship.
That’s exactly the kind of opportunity Canada needs to be ready for.
For sure. The more countries Trump screws over, the more countries become future reliable trading partners for Canada. As you have said in past columns Fred, once a supply chain is established with a reliable source, it's likely that that connection will continue long term.
Hi Fred..I’m wondering that now that trump thinks he has made a slam dunk concerning Greenland and Denmark, do you think he will try to interfere with trade between us and the European Union?
An observation I have made from watching trump is that what he thinks and reality tend not to match at times. If he had researched anything concerning how NATO was formed and how it works he most likely would not have made such a claim about a “new” deal between the US and Greenland. The point I’m trying to make here is that he may think he has the power to interfere and would take steps to do so. The way the US congress has been working or rather has not been working there would be little effort to rein him in. Hence my question.
If such a scenario presented itself do you think that at present trade ties between Canada and the EU are strong enough to overcome a situation such as that or perhaps such scenarios are already being contemplated which would make sense to me. What do you think?
and yes, I think the possibility you’re describing is already part of what Canada and Europe are preparing for.
Could a U.S. president try to interfere economically with a deeper Canada-EU relationship?
Absolutely.
Tariffs, pressure on companies, financial measures and other forms of economic leverage are all possible tools.
The more important question is whether Canada and Europe could withstand that pressure.
We’re much better positioned than we were a few years ago, but I wouldn’t say we’re completely insulated yet.
CETA already gives us a strong trade foundation, and now Canada and Europe are deliberately expanding cooperation into energy, critical minerals, defence, technology, financial services and even payment systems.
Carney actually addressed this very issue in Europe.
His argument was that trade, finance and supply chains can be used as weapons of pressure, so countries need enough alternatives that no single country can dictate their choices.
That doesn’t make us immune to American pressure.
It makes that pressure less powerful.
And I think that’s the whole strategy we’re watching being built right now.
PM Carney seems to have opened up some eyes in other countries- am so proud of what he is doing for the betterment of Canadian business exports but also to be somewhat of a guiding light for other like minded countries. Yes Australia is about to have a fuel problem- they too have learned the hard lessen of relying on the US to honour their agreements. Dumbfounding they had their fuel storage on US soil ? Need to do some research as to why that is the case
Shelley, you’ve actually found an interesting rabbit hole there.
Australia DID once count fuel reserves held in the United States toward its international obligations, but they brought those overseas reserves home in 2022.
Today their reserves are held domestically.
They are dealing with fuel-supply pressures now, though, which makes your larger point important.
Countries are discovering that energy security and dependable trading partners matter a whole lot more when the world gets unpredictable.
Might be something worth digging into for a future GeezerWise piece.
Maybe Canada can do some emergency shipments of diesel fuel to Australia and NZ once Trump cuts them off. That would go a long way towards building up even greater relationships.
That’s a good question. I read ILFA and that was brought up in their last article. I was wondering about that too.
I had just read the ILFA column before posting this note to Fred. I read them both every day they post along with Dean Blundell, Robert Reich, and Paul Krugman.
Interesting thought, Frank.
The bigger point for me is that reliability itself is becoming an economic asset.
If Australia or New Zealand suddenly needs an alternative supplier and Canada can help, that’s not just a sale... it’s another brick in a long-term relationship.
That’s exactly the kind of opportunity Canada needs to be ready for.
For sure. The more countries Trump screws over, the more countries become future reliable trading partners for Canada. As you have said in past columns Fred, once a supply chain is established with a reliable source, it's likely that that connection will continue long term.
I like Dean too. I have yet to check out Robert. Jim Acosta is really good too.
Hi Fred..I’m wondering that now that trump thinks he has made a slam dunk concerning Greenland and Denmark, do you think he will try to interfere with trade between us and the European Union?
Tracy, I think we should watch that very closely.
Trump has already threatened “very serious tariffs” if the growing Canada–EU relationship is treated by Washington as hostile to the U.S.
But there’s an important distinction... he can make deeper Canada–Europe trade more expensive or difficult.
He can’t simply order Canada and Europe not to trade with each other.
And Greenland wasn’t quite the slam dunk Trump describes either.
The new agreement expands the U.S. military presence, but Denmark retains sovereignty and Greenland retains its right to self-determination.
To me, this is exactly why Canada needs more trading partners.
The more alternatives we build, the less leverage any one government has over us.
An observation I have made from watching trump is that what he thinks and reality tend not to match at times. If he had researched anything concerning how NATO was formed and how it works he most likely would not have made such a claim about a “new” deal between the US and Greenland. The point I’m trying to make here is that he may think he has the power to interfere and would take steps to do so. The way the US congress has been working or rather has not been working there would be little effort to rein him in. Hence my question.
If such a scenario presented itself do you think that at present trade ties between Canada and the EU are strong enough to overcome a situation such as that or perhaps such scenarios are already being contemplated which would make sense to me. What do you think?
Tracy, now I understand your question better...
and yes, I think the possibility you’re describing is already part of what Canada and Europe are preparing for.
Could a U.S. president try to interfere economically with a deeper Canada-EU relationship?
Absolutely.
Tariffs, pressure on companies, financial measures and other forms of economic leverage are all possible tools.
The more important question is whether Canada and Europe could withstand that pressure.
We’re much better positioned than we were a few years ago, but I wouldn’t say we’re completely insulated yet.
CETA already gives us a strong trade foundation, and now Canada and Europe are deliberately expanding cooperation into energy, critical minerals, defence, technology, financial services and even payment systems.
Carney actually addressed this very issue in Europe.
His argument was that trade, finance and supply chains can be used as weapons of pressure, so countries need enough alternatives that no single country can dictate their choices.
That doesn’t make us immune to American pressure.
It makes that pressure less powerful.
And I think that’s the whole strategy we’re watching being built right now.
Thank you Fred.
PM Carney seems to have opened up some eyes in other countries- am so proud of what he is doing for the betterment of Canadian business exports but also to be somewhat of a guiding light for other like minded countries. Yes Australia is about to have a fuel problem- they too have learned the hard lessen of relying on the US to honour their agreements. Dumbfounding they had their fuel storage on US soil ? Need to do some research as to why that is the case
Shelley, you’ve actually found an interesting rabbit hole there.
Australia DID once count fuel reserves held in the United States toward its international obligations, but they brought those overseas reserves home in 2022.
Today their reserves are held domestically.
They are dealing with fuel-supply pressures now, though, which makes your larger point important.
Countries are discovering that energy security and dependable trading partners matter a whole lot more when the world gets unpredictable.
Might be something worth digging into for a future GeezerWise piece.
Thank you Fred, it is a nice feeling when my comment receives such a response!
In practice Canada may come to replace the US.
Partly due to this increased partnership with Europe but more so due to America's withdrawal from those relationships.
I think that second point may be the bigger one.
Canada doesn’t have to “replace” the United States in the traditional sense.
But if America voluntarily leaves spaces it spent decades occupying...
dependable trade partner, ally, supplier, diplomatic leader... somebody will fill those spaces.
Canada suddenly finds itself unusually well positioned to fill some of them alongside Europe and other like-minded countries.
The remarkable part is that Canada didn’t create the opening.
America did.
Fred, is Mark Carney going to Europe again next week?
Good catch, Frank.
No... that reference was based on the timing of the original source material and I should have updated it before publishing.
Carney’s Strasbourg trip has already happened.
He addressed the European Parliament on September 17 and met with EU leaders while he was there.
Thanks for catching that one. 👍
No problem, I thought that that might have slipped between the cracks.....
We won't hold this against you Fred. ;-]
An unelected group of bureaucrats holding power over a pathetic group of nations that permitted that to happen. Nice friends!
Hank, fair enough if you don’t like how the EU is structured, but “unelected bureaucrats holding power” isn’t quite accurate.
EU citizens directly elect the European Parliament.
The governments of the 27 member countries are represented in the Council, and those two bodies jointly pass most EU laws.
The European Commission isn’t directly elected, but its leadership has to get through that democratic process as well.
Canadians certainly don’t have to admire the EU system to recognize that 27 countries representing a huge market might be pretty useful friends
when Canada is trying to diversify its trade.
For me, that’s the point of this article.