🇨🇦💙 Money’s not the only shortage. The US Department of Defense, issued a tender for 7,500 tonnes of alloy-grade cobalt. The deadline was delayed several times then taken off the market.
The World Is Quietly Selling America... And the Bill Is Coming Due
$10 trillion needs refinancing… right as foreign buyers start backing away. That’s not bad timing... that’s a structural problem.
A respectful response to Fred Ferguson:
There is something important in your diagnosis Fred.
And also something that needs to be handled with a bit more care.
Because what you are describing does look, at first glance, like a turning point— a system that no longer behaves the way it used to, a reflex that is weakening at precisely the wrong moment.
But not every shift in flow is a loss of confidence.
Sometimes it is something more mechanical.
The $82 billion matters.
But not primarily as a vote against the United States.
It reflects a different pressure:
a sudden global need for dollars under stress.
When oil rises, when currencies weaken, when war compresses liquidity— countries do not make geopolitical statements.
They raise cash.
And U.S. Treasuries remain, for now, the easiest place to do that.
That does not make the signal irrelevant.
On the contrary.
What is changing is not the existence of demand, but the conditions under which demand appears.
For decades, demand was:
automatic
reflexive
largely price-insensitive
Now, it is becoming:
conditional
price-aware
occasionally absent at the margin
That is a shift.
But it is not yet a break.
Your refinancing point is well taken.
$10 trillion rolling over into a higher-rate environment is not simply a fiscal issue.
It is a systemic pressure point.
Because higher yields do not only affect budgets.
They propagate:
into credit markets
into investment decisions
into political constraints
And once they begin to feed back into deficits, you get the loop you describe.
Where I would adjust the framing slightly is around the idea that “the world is selling America.”
That suggests a coordinated exit.
What we are seeing is more fragmented.
Different actors are doing different things, for different reasons:
some are diversifying
some are managing short-term liquidity
some are hedging geopolitical exposure
There is no single movement.
But there is a common direction of travel.
And that direction is this:
from reliance to optionality.
Countries are not abandoning the system.
They are reducing the cost of depending on it too completely.
That is slower, quieter—and more structural.
The real tension, as you point out, lies ahead.
If demand becomes more conditional, then the system has to adjust to:
higher funding costs
more volatile auctions
less predictable external support
At the same time as:
geopolitical pressure increases
fiscal needs expand
political cohesion weakens
That combination is not explosive.
But it is constraining.
Your final line on trust is close to the mark.
But perhaps it can be sharpened slightly.
This is not yet a loss of trust.
It is something that often precedes it:
a reduction in automatic trust.
And once trust becomes something that must be earned continuously, rather than assumed, the system begins to behave very differently.
So yes—something has changed.
Not in the sense of a sudden break, but in the sense of a gradual reweighing.
The system is still there. The demand is still there. But the certainty is not.
And it is the loss of certainty—more than any single sale or auction— that will shape what comes next.
40% of our budget is going to service a debt engineered by Trump et al during his first term and the BBB.
There is reason to believe the yuan will become the new oil currency soon enough. As we continue to trash talk our debtors, 3 groups could completely decimate the US economy in a single day, just calling in Treasury bills.
If diesel oil doesn't start flowing soon, the entire global trading system will crash. Many countries have less tan 60 days worth. And they can't buy that from the US. We have light sweet. No good for diesel, as it becomes to expensive to refine.
If Tuesday's threat becomes real, where do you think Iran will target? It won't be water and electricity, but refineries and pipelines.
Epic Fury 2.0 will be directed at the US. Not just by our one time allies, but the people of this country. Maybe, just maybe, this will be enough for the electorate to finally stand up and say ENOUGH. And follow through on getting a madman and his enablers out of government.
T bills are already being sold to get dollars to stock up on the few amounts of diesel left for sale on the open market, especially India and pan-asian nations, which have only days worth to keep goods moving. The EU as a whole is in the 60 day window on diesel. If they need dollars, they will take the hit to keep trucks running. Iran will most likely require yuan rather than dollars if we continue to destroy civilian infrastructure. If this happens, the oil markets will transfer to the yuan, which has stayed relatively stable compared to the dollar over the last 14 months. This might incur a trickle down to other global commodity markets. Yes, soon is relative, but looking at what has happened in just 14 months, a change in currency could occur within the next 2-3 years. China has been quietly pushing "stability" and "trustworthyness" to everyone wanting to do business with them. The US, on the otherhand, is playing the schoolyard bully. The only respectable group trying to keep our economy on an even keel is Powell et al at the Fed. And it isn't going well. You already correct as far as some speculation is included, but we can possibly agree that trust in US fiscal policy is at an all time low.
The United States is dependent on a market that could stop financing its growing debt. How often has this happened before, and what were the consequences?
Fred, your information is really valuable, but I get seasick reading it because of the constantly changing font size and type, etc. Maybe AI isn't the best office assistant in this game. Could you try writing it with just a few headers? Otherwise, much respect.
Trump and his criminal administration will get what's coming to them in due time.
This article said that the USA has 39 trillion dollars in debt...
All other nations have their debt as well...
What I'd like to know is HOW in holy fuck can America or ANY nation pay such an astronomically high amounts of debt?
Who is the world in debt to? :P
I think it was Albert Einstien that said, "Problems cannot be solved at the same level of consciousness that created them".
For the species called human beings, I guess that TRILLIONS of dollars in unpayable debt is what we get for not being more evolved in consciousness enough to know that we do NOT need ANY kind of fiat currency to begin with, really. A cashless and moneyless society and world. Human beings are the only creatures that work for money so that they can live.
Earth actually has enough resources to FREELY share and to supply ALL of humanities needs for food, clothing, housing, work and so on.
BUT...we have the %1, the multibillionaire class, the Epstein class, that centrally controls damn near all of the world's money and finances. And they decide who gets what. 90%+ of humanity gets the scraps and crumbs while the global and Epstein elite gets the bread, champagne, wine, yachts and everything else.
And if anything is done that reduces even a little of the revenue for the billionaire and Epstein class, they have a shitfit about it.
It's the end of American Exceptionallism
RainyRain... maybe not the end… but definitely a shift.
Exceptionalism worked when demand was automatic and trust was unquestioned.
Now it’s becoming more conditional.
And when that happens, the advantage doesn’t disappear…
but it does get tested.
I think the world knows America is already bankrupt
LB... not bankrupt… but definitely under pressure.
The U.S. can still borrow and pay its bills.
The real issue is how expensive that borrowing is becoming.
As long as buyers show up, the system holds.
If they start demanding higher returns…
that’s when things tighten fast.
Morally and now financially.
Richard... financially, it’s pressure… not collapse.
Morally? That depends on who you ask.
But in markets, perception matters.
If enough people feel something’s off…
that can start showing up in the numbers pretty quickly.
In more ways that purely financial.
🇨🇦💙 Money’s not the only shortage. The US Department of Defense, issued a tender for 7,500 tonnes of alloy-grade cobalt. The deadline was delayed several times then taken off the market.
Roxy... good catch.
That kind of move usually signals supply stress or pricing issues behind the scenes.
Cobalt isn’t just another metal...
it’s critical for batteries, defense systems, and advanced tech.
When tenders get pulled or delayed, it often means...
👉 supply is tight
👉 prices are volatile
👉 or sourcing has become politically complicated
Another example of how resources and geopolitics are starting to overlap more directly.
And that tends to ripple further than people expect.
Trump's dissing our allies will cost us our place in the world of nations. Attacking our neighbors only makes us look like bullies.
What do people do with a bully? The avoid and evade them. America, an inclusive nation, has become America alone.
Kay... there’s definitely a real risk there.
When alliances get strained, countries don’t always confront… they adjust quietly.
They diversify relationships, reduce reliance, and create options.
It’s not instant fallout… it’s gradual distancing.
And over time, that can matter just as much as any headline conflict.
The World Is Quietly Selling America... And the Bill Is Coming Due
$10 trillion needs refinancing… right as foreign buyers start backing away. That’s not bad timing... that’s a structural problem.
A respectful response to Fred Ferguson:
There is something important in your diagnosis Fred.
And also something that needs to be handled with a bit more care.
Because what you are describing does look, at first glance, like a turning point— a system that no longer behaves the way it used to, a reflex that is weakening at precisely the wrong moment.
But not every shift in flow is a loss of confidence.
Sometimes it is something more mechanical.
The $82 billion matters.
But not primarily as a vote against the United States.
It reflects a different pressure:
a sudden global need for dollars under stress.
When oil rises, when currencies weaken, when war compresses liquidity— countries do not make geopolitical statements.
They raise cash.
And U.S. Treasuries remain, for now, the easiest place to do that.
That does not make the signal irrelevant.
On the contrary.
What is changing is not the existence of demand, but the conditions under which demand appears.
For decades, demand was:
automatic
reflexive
largely price-insensitive
Now, it is becoming:
conditional
price-aware
occasionally absent at the margin
That is a shift.
But it is not yet a break.
Your refinancing point is well taken.
$10 trillion rolling over into a higher-rate environment is not simply a fiscal issue.
It is a systemic pressure point.
Because higher yields do not only affect budgets.
They propagate:
into credit markets
into investment decisions
into political constraints
And once they begin to feed back into deficits, you get the loop you describe.
Where I would adjust the framing slightly is around the idea that “the world is selling America.”
That suggests a coordinated exit.
What we are seeing is more fragmented.
Different actors are doing different things, for different reasons:
some are diversifying
some are managing short-term liquidity
some are hedging geopolitical exposure
There is no single movement.
But there is a common direction of travel.
And that direction is this:
from reliance to optionality.
Countries are not abandoning the system.
They are reducing the cost of depending on it too completely.
That is slower, quieter—and more structural.
The real tension, as you point out, lies ahead.
If demand becomes more conditional, then the system has to adjust to:
higher funding costs
more volatile auctions
less predictable external support
At the same time as:
geopolitical pressure increases
fiscal needs expand
political cohesion weakens
That combination is not explosive.
But it is constraining.
Your final line on trust is close to the mark.
But perhaps it can be sharpened slightly.
This is not yet a loss of trust.
It is something that often precedes it:
a reduction in automatic trust.
And once trust becomes something that must be earned continuously, rather than assumed, the system begins to behave very differently.
So yes—something has changed.
Not in the sense of a sudden break, but in the sense of a gradual reweighing.
The system is still there. The demand is still there. But the certainty is not.
And it is the loss of certainty—more than any single sale or auction— that will shape what comes next.
Hans... fair pushback, and I agree with most of your framing.
You’re right… this isn’t a coordinated “exit.”
It’s more fragmented, more mechanical in parts.
But that’s also the point.
When demand shifts from automatic → conditional,
the system doesn’t break… it tightens.
And tightening under $10T of refinancing pressure is where things start to matter.
So I’d frame it like this...
👉 Not a loss of trust
👉 Not yet a break
👉 But a clear shift in how trust shows up in the market
And once trust becomes price-sensitive and selective,
the margin gets a lot less forgiving.
That’s where the real story is unfolding.
I agree to your correction Fred
This is how the Republicunts operate when their Fuhrer is president!
When a Dem is president, these hypocrites scream deficit every other sentence!
What a fucked-up Cuntry!
40% of our budget is going to service a debt engineered by Trump et al during his first term and the BBB.
There is reason to believe the yuan will become the new oil currency soon enough. As we continue to trash talk our debtors, 3 groups could completely decimate the US economy in a single day, just calling in Treasury bills.
If diesel oil doesn't start flowing soon, the entire global trading system will crash. Many countries have less tan 60 days worth. And they can't buy that from the US. We have light sweet. No good for diesel, as it becomes to expensive to refine.
If Tuesday's threat becomes real, where do you think Iran will target? It won't be water and electricity, but refineries and pipelines.
Epic Fury 2.0 will be directed at the US. Not just by our one time allies, but the people of this country. Maybe, just maybe, this will be enough for the electorate to finally stand up and say ENOUGH. And follow through on getting a madman and his enablers out of government.
There’s a lot packed in there…
but it’s a bit of a mash-up of real risks, speculation, and a few things that don’t line up.
First... Canada’s debt isn’t “engineered by Donald Trump.”
Different country, different books.
Our debt comes from our own spending decisions over decades.
Second... the idea that countries can just “call in” U.S. Treasuries and crash the system overnight doesn’t really work that way.
They can sell… but they also hurt themselves in the process.
It’s a mutual dependency game.
Third... the Chinese yuan replacing the U.S. dollar as the oil currency gets talked about a lot… but it’s a slow shift at best...
not something that flips “soon enough” and resets the system overnight.
And on diesel...
refining constraints are real, but the global system is more flexible than that.
It bends long before it breaks.
Big picture?
There are real tensions building...
geopolitical, economic, energy...
no question.
But when everything gets framed as “imminent collapse,” it usually means we’re mixing valid concerns with worst-case storytelling.
The world doesn’t blow up in a day.
It shifts… then adjusts… then shifts again.
T bills are already being sold to get dollars to stock up on the few amounts of diesel left for sale on the open market, especially India and pan-asian nations, which have only days worth to keep goods moving. The EU as a whole is in the 60 day window on diesel. If they need dollars, they will take the hit to keep trucks running. Iran will most likely require yuan rather than dollars if we continue to destroy civilian infrastructure. If this happens, the oil markets will transfer to the yuan, which has stayed relatively stable compared to the dollar over the last 14 months. This might incur a trickle down to other global commodity markets. Yes, soon is relative, but looking at what has happened in just 14 months, a change in currency could occur within the next 2-3 years. China has been quietly pushing "stability" and "trustworthyness" to everyone wanting to do business with them. The US, on the otherhand, is playing the schoolyard bully. The only respectable group trying to keep our economy on an even keel is Powell et al at the Fed. And it isn't going well. You already correct as far as some speculation is included, but we can possibly agree that trust in US fiscal policy is at an all time low.
Excellent article, Fred.
Oh - question: what the hell is a “dollar dollar?”
This is so good Fred! Love the way you explain - simple, straightforward, succinct and understandable. Thank you!
The Petrodollar dies on Wednesday, pay with Euros, Won or Yen etc
The United States is dependent on a market that could stop financing its growing debt. How often has this happened before, and what were the consequences?
Oeste... it’s happened before, but usually in smaller or weaker economies.
Think emerging markets where demand dries up → rates spike → currencies fall → crisis follows.
The U.S. is different because of the dollar’s global role…
but the mechanics don’t change.
If financing becomes less reliable...
👉 borrowing costs rise
👉 deficits widen
👉 policy options shrink
Not an immediate collapse…
but a system that becomes a lot less flexible under pressure.
Fred, your information is really valuable, but I get seasick reading it because of the constantly changing font size and type, etc. Maybe AI isn't the best office assistant in this game. Could you try writing it with just a few headers? Otherwise, much respect.
NOJ... fair point.
I’ll simplify the formatting going forward.
Appreciate you saying it.
Trump and his criminal administration will get what's coming to them in due time.
This article said that the USA has 39 trillion dollars in debt...
All other nations have their debt as well...
What I'd like to know is HOW in holy fuck can America or ANY nation pay such an astronomically high amounts of debt?
Who is the world in debt to? :P
I think it was Albert Einstien that said, "Problems cannot be solved at the same level of consciousness that created them".
For the species called human beings, I guess that TRILLIONS of dollars in unpayable debt is what we get for not being more evolved in consciousness enough to know that we do NOT need ANY kind of fiat currency to begin with, really. A cashless and moneyless society and world. Human beings are the only creatures that work for money so that they can live.
Earth actually has enough resources to FREELY share and to supply ALL of humanities needs for food, clothing, housing, work and so on.
BUT...we have the %1, the multibillionaire class, the Epstein class, that centrally controls damn near all of the world's money and finances. And they decide who gets what. 90%+ of humanity gets the scraps and crumbs while the global and Epstein elite gets the bread, champagne, wine, yachts and everything else.
And if anything is done that reduces even a little of the revenue for the billionaire and Epstein class, they have a shitfit about it.
Jason, the short answer...
Countries don’t pay off trillions in debt… they roll it forward.
Old debt gets replaced with new debt... as long as buyers keep showing up.
And “who do we owe?”
Mostly pension funds, banks, governments… and indirectly, each other.
The real issue isn’t the size of the debt.
It’s trust.
When buyers hesitate… rates rise… and the whole system starts to strain.
Money isn’t the core problem.
Human behavior and power are.
And that’s been true for a very long time.