A resignation, a rebellion, and a reality check... when your allies walk, your voters doubt, and your own people quit… that’s not a strategy... that’s an unraveling.
All of that is happening and Chump honestly couldn't give a fuck. In his own mind he's winning and winning bigly. America as a global super power is finished and like the UK with Brexit will find the world is a cold lonely place.
Yes, it is quite something when a Proud Boy supporter, January 6 th supporter, turns against its own. How much more damage before the end of this regime arrives?
The core argument — that this is “the war nobody wanted” drifting toward collapse — captures a real sense of fatigue and strategic overreach. But it risks flattening something far more complex.
What we are seeing is not collapse in the classical sense. It is strain without resolution.
Three points matter:
1. This war was not “unwanted” — it was miscalculated.
Several actors believed escalation would be short, controlled, and decisive. That assumption has failed, but failure of expectations is not the same as absence of intent.
2. Systems are bending, not breaking.
States involved still retain coercive capacity, economic depth, and political control. Historically, true collapse requires loss of internal cohesion — we are not clearly there yet.
3. Narratives of collapse often appear before actual collapse.
We saw the same in Iraq, Afghanistan, even parts of the Cold War. Perception leads reality — sometimes by years.
What is real in the article is something more subtle:
→ Strategic exhaustion
→ Narrative fragmentation
→ Increasing reliance on signalling over substance
That combination is dangerous — not because collapse is imminent, but because misreading the situation can produce escalation instead of de-escalation.
So I would reframe it like this:
This is not yet “the collapse.”
It is the phase where systems become brittle — and therefore more unpredictable.
And historically, that phase is often the most dangerous one.
Fred, a sane person would re-think their strategy following all of the fallout you itemized in your column. Unfortunately the USA does not have a sane person at the wheel and I expect his actions will be to double down on his illegal attacks, only making the situation worse and worse.
I don't have time to study or understand politics, which is why this newsletter is helpful, thanks Fred.
I don't understand how Trump, who I assume pulled the trigger on this war, did not think about Iran blocking oil supplies in retaliation. Let's say the Orange One had consulted with the experts; did they consider the oil?
Maybe I'm naive, but blocking oil would be obvious to anyone, so maybe there is something else at play here? I honestly do not understand how one bully can make big decisions that negatively impact the entire world and continue to get away with it.
Anyway, I used to wonder when this craziness would end. Now I realize that it won't be until things get a lot worse.
Yvette... that’s not naive… that’s actually the right question.
On paper, yes... blocking oil is the most obvious retaliation in the world.
Anyone who’s looked at a map of the Strait of Hormuz for five minutes can see it.
So you’re left with two uncomfortable possibilities...
Either it wasn’t fully thought through…
or it was... and the consequences were accepted anyway.
Neither one is reassuring.
What you’re noticing (without “studying politics”) is something a lot of people miss...
Big decisions like this don’t just run on logic... they run on pressure, ego, alliances, and sometimes bad assumptions about how others will react.
History is full of moments where leaders assumed the other side would fold…
and instead, everything escalated.
As for “how one bully gets away with it”... that usually lasts right up until the costs spread far enough that other countries, markets, and even their own institutions start pushing back.
And we’re starting to see hints of that now.
You’re also right about one thing that’s hard to say out loud...
You suggest that either consequences weren't properly evaluated or they were and it was an acceptable risk. I suggest that there was no anticipation or consideration of consequences other than "victory." Only a trumpian ego could manage that.
Another very informative article Fred! When this all ends, maybe you should write the book, of all the history that maybe should be a textbook for history classes!
No wonder this ridiculous administration is thrashing about on the floor like a decapitated chicken. It's a competence repellent. Anyone with the slightest hint of skill and/or moral backbone is either leaving or being ejected. It'd be nice if we could somehow arrange for the nastiest people from the various world dictatorships (which let's face it do exist, though is a separate issue from Trumpdom) to engage in a vicious flashmob with only Trump and his supporters, and no-one else. Just cherry-pick each dickhead-country's dickheads and no-one else. They can battle things out themselves, and the rest of us can kick back and enjoy good life and good company together. Wasn't that the original promise of precision weaponry? The Norden Bomb Sight etc.? Hoick a B-52 gravity bomb up Hitler's ass and leave Eva Braun intact?
Mikey... I get the frustration. A lot of people are feeling like the adults left the room.
But once it turns into “wipe them all out,” we’re not solving anything… we’re just describing the same thinking that gets the world into these messes in the first place.
What’s actually happening is simpler... and in some ways more telling...
People with experience and credibility start stepping away.
Allies hesitate.
Institutions push back.
That’s how systems correct themselves... not cleanly, not quickly, but without needing everything to burn down.
And the rest of the world?
They don’t sit back and watch…
They adapt, make their own deals, and quietly move around the chaos.
All of that is happening and Chump honestly couldn't give a fuck. In his own mind he's winning and winning bigly. America as a global super power is finished and like the UK with Brexit will find the world is a cold lonely place.
Mike... there’s a piece of truth in what you’re saying… but it’s not as simple as “finished.”
What’s really happening is something more uncomfortable...
The U.S. isn’t collapsing overnight...
it’s losing the one thing that made it powerful in the first place…
trust.
Alliances don’t break because of one decision.
They erode when partners stop believing you’re predictable, rational, and worth backing.
Brexit was a version of that...
not collapse, but self-inflicted isolation with long-term consequences.
What we’re seeing now feels similar, just on a much bigger stage.
And here’s the part people miss...
Power doesn’t disappear…
it rearranges itself.
While the U.S. pushes, others are already adapting... making side deals, building alternatives, hedging their bets.
That’s how influence fades.
Not with a bang.
With countries quietly choosing not to follow you anymore.
Middle power countries are the new super power.
Yes, it is quite something when a Proud Boy supporter, January 6 th supporter, turns against its own. How much more damage before the end of this regime arrives?
When a movement starts turning on itself, the stress is real.
But endings aren’t clean... they’re messy, slow, and uneven.
The damage usually comes before the collapse, not after.
agree
Fred
The core argument — that this is “the war nobody wanted” drifting toward collapse — captures a real sense of fatigue and strategic overreach. But it risks flattening something far more complex.
What we are seeing is not collapse in the classical sense. It is strain without resolution.
Three points matter:
1. This war was not “unwanted” — it was miscalculated.
Several actors believed escalation would be short, controlled, and decisive. That assumption has failed, but failure of expectations is not the same as absence of intent.
2. Systems are bending, not breaking.
States involved still retain coercive capacity, economic depth, and political control. Historically, true collapse requires loss of internal cohesion — we are not clearly there yet.
3. Narratives of collapse often appear before actual collapse.
We saw the same in Iraq, Afghanistan, even parts of the Cold War. Perception leads reality — sometimes by years.
What is real in the article is something more subtle:
→ Strategic exhaustion
→ Narrative fragmentation
→ Increasing reliance on signalling over substance
That combination is dangerous — not because collapse is imminent, but because misreading the situation can produce escalation instead of de-escalation.
So I would reframe it like this:
This is not yet “the collapse.”
It is the phase where systems become brittle — and therefore more unpredictable.
And historically, that phase is often the most dangerous one.
Good distinction... miscalculated, not unwanted.
But I think the real headline is your word: brittle.
Systems still standing… but reacting harder, faster, and less predictably.
That’s usually when things go wrong.
Fred, a sane person would re-think their strategy following all of the fallout you itemized in your column. Unfortunately the USA does not have a sane person at the wheel and I expect his actions will be to double down on his illegal attacks, only making the situation worse and worse.
Frank... that’s the concern.
In a normal situation, this kind of pushback... from allies, markets, even people inside the system... would force a course correction.
But when decisions are tied to ego and perception of “winning,” the instinct often isn’t to pull back…
It’s to double down.
And that’s where things get dangerous.
Because escalation doesn’t just increase pressure on the outside...
It tightens the feedback loop at home...
higher costs
more resistance from institutions
less cooperation from allies.
At some point, reality pushes back harder than rhetoric can cover.
The only question is how much damage gets done before that moment hits.
I don't have time to study or understand politics, which is why this newsletter is helpful, thanks Fred.
I don't understand how Trump, who I assume pulled the trigger on this war, did not think about Iran blocking oil supplies in retaliation. Let's say the Orange One had consulted with the experts; did they consider the oil?
Maybe I'm naive, but blocking oil would be obvious to anyone, so maybe there is something else at play here? I honestly do not understand how one bully can make big decisions that negatively impact the entire world and continue to get away with it.
Anyway, I used to wonder when this craziness would end. Now I realize that it won't be until things get a lot worse.
Yvette... that’s not naive… that’s actually the right question.
On paper, yes... blocking oil is the most obvious retaliation in the world.
Anyone who’s looked at a map of the Strait of Hormuz for five minutes can see it.
So you’re left with two uncomfortable possibilities...
Either it wasn’t fully thought through…
or it was... and the consequences were accepted anyway.
Neither one is reassuring.
What you’re noticing (without “studying politics”) is something a lot of people miss...
Big decisions like this don’t just run on logic... they run on pressure, ego, alliances, and sometimes bad assumptions about how others will react.
History is full of moments where leaders assumed the other side would fold…
and instead, everything escalated.
As for “how one bully gets away with it”... that usually lasts right up until the costs spread far enough that other countries, markets, and even their own institutions start pushing back.
And we’re starting to see hints of that now.
You’re also right about one thing that’s hard to say out loud...
These situations don’t usually end neatly.
They tend to unwind slowly… and then all at once.
You suggest that either consequences weren't properly evaluated or they were and it was an acceptable risk. I suggest that there was no anticipation or consideration of consequences other than "victory." Only a trumpian ego could manage that.
It’s not just ego Jim... it’s what happens when nobody in the room is there to challenge it.
Another very informative article Fred! When this all ends, maybe you should write the book, of all the history that maybe should be a textbook for history classes!
Patsy... I appreciate that more than you know.
Right now I’m just trying to do one thing...
Take what’s happening in real time…
and make it understandable without needing a political science degree.
Because most people don’t have the time to dig through all the noise... but they do want to understand what’s actually going on.
As for the book…
If this keeps unfolding the way it is, we may not need to wait.
We might end up writing it as it happens.
And honestly, that’s the part that matters most...
people seeing it clearly while it’s still in motion.
The collapse of USA is eminent
Pam... I wouldn’t go as far as “collapse.”
What we’re seeing looks more like erosion than explosion.
Big countries don’t just fall over overnight.
They weaken when...
allies stop lining up
institutions start pushing back
economic pressure builds
and trust starts slipping
That’s slower… but in some ways more serious.
Because it doesn’t make headlines right away...
it just changes how the rest of the world behaves around you.
And once that shifts, it’s very hard to reverse.
Some take 250 years to collapse others quickly
No wonder this ridiculous administration is thrashing about on the floor like a decapitated chicken. It's a competence repellent. Anyone with the slightest hint of skill and/or moral backbone is either leaving or being ejected. It'd be nice if we could somehow arrange for the nastiest people from the various world dictatorships (which let's face it do exist, though is a separate issue from Trumpdom) to engage in a vicious flashmob with only Trump and his supporters, and no-one else. Just cherry-pick each dickhead-country's dickheads and no-one else. They can battle things out themselves, and the rest of us can kick back and enjoy good life and good company together. Wasn't that the original promise of precision weaponry? The Norden Bomb Sight etc.? Hoick a B-52 gravity bomb up Hitler's ass and leave Eva Braun intact?
Mikey... I get the frustration. A lot of people are feeling like the adults left the room.
But once it turns into “wipe them all out,” we’re not solving anything… we’re just describing the same thinking that gets the world into these messes in the first place.
What’s actually happening is simpler... and in some ways more telling...
People with experience and credibility start stepping away.
Allies hesitate.
Institutions push back.
That’s how systems correct themselves... not cleanly, not quickly, but without needing everything to burn down.
And the rest of the world?
They don’t sit back and watch…
They adapt, make their own deals, and quietly move around the chaos.
That’s the real shift to pay attention to.