The Trade War Was Supposed to Fix the Deficit
The Tariffs Were Supposed to Shrink the Deficit. Instead It Nearly Doubled Overnight.
Instead it nearly doubled it in one month.
For a year we were told the same line…
Slap tariffs on everyone.
Make imports expensive.
Factories come home.
Deficit shrinks.
America wins.
Nice bumper sticker.
Reality?
November numbers just kicked that theory straight in the teeth.
The U.S. trade deficit jumped 94.6% in a single month.
Not a typo.
It went from $29.2B → $56.8B.
That’s not “slightly worse.”
That’s “the engine just fell out of the plane.”
Here’s what actually happened (the part politicians skip)
Tariffs sound strong.
But economics isn’t a bar fight… it’s plumbing.
You block one pipe… the water finds another route.
Three things blew up at once…
1) Costs shot through the roof
American manufacturers now pay ~40% more for aluminum than earlier in the year.
When your inputs cost more, your products cost more.
Which means…
exports drop
competitors win
you lose market share
You don’t get “Made in America.”
You get “Too expensive to buy.”
2) Imports didn’t fall (because they can’t)
You can’t replace stuff you don’t make.
The U.S. doesn’t magically have…
chip fabs
semiconductor plants
advanced components
So companies kept importing anyway.
In fact…
capital goods imports hit record highs, up $7.4B in November alone.
Even tech firms had to get tariff exemptions just to function.
So much for “buy American.”
You can’t buy what doesn’t exist.
3) Other countries hit back
Nobody just stands there and says “thank you for the tariffs.”
They retaliate.
Which makes American exports less competitive overseas.
And while Washington was busy chest-thumping…
The rest of the world quietly started building new trade relationships that don’t include the U.S.
That’s the part that should make people nervous.
Because trade networks are like friendships.
Once someone else becomes your reliable partner… you don’t rush back to the flaky guy.
The tell nobody’s talking about
Companies started gaming the system.
Pharma imports swinging wildly.
Shipments timed around tariff deadlines.
Short-term tricks instead of long-term investment.
Translation…
Business has zero confidence in policy stability.
And when businesses stop trusting you?
They stop building factories in your backyard.
They build them somewhere else.
Meanwhile, the world is moving on
While tariffs were flying…
European Union deepened trade deals elsewhere
China kept expanding supply chains
Canada diversified partners
Even allies started saying the U.S. looked unpredictable
That’s brutal.
When your closest friends start treating you like the unstable neighbor with the leaf blower at 6am…
you’ve got a problem.
The legal mess (because it gets better…)
Courts are now questioning whether the tariffs were even legal under emergency powers.
If the Supreme Court of the United States knocks them down?
The government may have to refund ~$180B in collected duties.
So we might get…
higher prices
bigger deficit
AND a refund bill
That’s not strategy.
That’s a yard sale.
Big picture
Here’s the blunt truth.
Tariffs were supposed to shrink the deficit.
Instead…
imports ↑
exports ↓
costs ↑
confidence ↓
deficit nearly doubled
It’s like trying to lose weight by tightening your belt.
You just pass out sooner.
My take (GeezerWise porch view)
This isn’t strength.
It’s noise.
Real power is boring and steady… like good plumbing or a reliable truck.
What we got instead was economic whack-a-mole.
And markets hate chaos more than taxes.
So capital is quietly walking away.
Not with drama.
Just… quietly.
Which is way worse.
Because when investment leaves, it doesn’t send a goodbye card.
It just doesn’t come back.
Source credit: Analysis informed by reporting and public trade data discussed by House of EL (YouTube).
Canada Strong Movement… House Rule & Disclosure
Canada Strong exists to defend Canadian sovereignty, democratic norms, and economic independence… without imported talking points or borrowed outrage.
House rule… Facts and good-faith discussion are welcome. I use AI tools to help turn my spoken drafts into clear writing. I’m 73, my hands shake, and I type with two fingers… so I speak first, then edit.
The ideas, positions, and final message are mine.
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This relates more to the US than Canada in general terms.