Just curious about the percentage of your posts that are based upon House of El posts? I may have missed any info on that. Great that you credit your sources.
I spend hours going through multiple analysts, researchers, and long-form breakdowns across different channels.
When I use material from someone specific, I credit it. Always.
My role isn’t to claim the research...
it’s to translate it, pressure-test it, and deliver the signal without the noise so people don’t have to spend 3–5 hours digging through it themselves.
Think of it less like “this came from X” and more like “this is the distilled version of what’s actually worth paying attention to.”
If something doesn’t hold up, I don’t use it. If it does, I make it readable.
Just finished House of El’s book Awake - well worth the read.
Today’s stock market has two additional defining factors- the bro day trader and algorithm/AI trading. The bro’s have 40 second attention spans, think the S&P is a video game and play pump and dump all day. The other began with the flash crash in 2010. A large investor used an automated program to sell a very big block of S&P futures and that selling pressure interacted with other algorithms and market makers, which amplified the move and caused a brief but severe market collapse.
So the stock market’s voice is still at risk. The bro’s might have learned their lesson about betting on rumour rather than fact but what about AI investing? Conventional investors who track historical data may get blindsided by an AI driven hallucination that tips our reality.
Got any long term predictions for EUrope? I agree with others in this thread that getting the gold out of the US will prove difficult, that which is still there. My concern is that it might not matter that much in the end because other resources necessary for re-building are lacking and the world not too keen on helping.
I sincerely hope you wouldn’t be on a beach but writing posts if you could predict the future — for the benefit of us all! 🤓
The way EUropean economies (single states and union) are organised is so fundamentally dependent on extra-European resources that these states and the union itself cannot simply restructure to rely less on others. They will need to start negotiating (no more weapons left to war themselves to the resources), and will have to pay real prices. That lands the European population in a very hard place. That, historically speaking has meant some problematic political reactions in the European populations.
Let’s hope the gold exists and is possible to re-patriate, EUrope sure needs it…
Well done Fred. I forgot I subscribed to you so am just now catching up. My memory at 78 is slipping a bit; I now have a list of every SubStacker I’ve subscribed to. Here’s where I need an icon of me slapping myself up side my head!!! 🤭
I get the concern... but if it ever got to the point where countries thought their gold could just be “taken,” we’d be in a very different kind of crisis.
This isn’t really about whether the gold is there…
Good luck believing Fort Knox will give up their gold, if any exists. No one has been able to verify what’s in the vault for decades!
STPC... I get why people question it.
When something hasn’t been independently audited in a long time, it naturally raises eyebrows.
That said, the bigger issue here isn’t whether the gold exists…
It’s who controls it and under what conditions.
Even if every bar is exactly where it should be, countries are starting to ask:
“Do we want our national reserves sitting outside our direct control?”
That’s a sovereignty question, not a conspiracy one.
And when trust in institutions starts to wobble — even slightly — those questions get a lot louder.
Yes, I 💯 agree 👍. I read somewhere that US refused to send back the gold to a certain EU country (might have been Germany) when asked.
Just curious about the percentage of your posts that are based upon House of El posts? I may have missed any info on that. Great that you credit your sources.
Ian... fair question.
I don’t build my posts around any one source.
I spend hours going through multiple analysts, researchers, and long-form breakdowns across different channels.
When I use material from someone specific, I credit it. Always.
My role isn’t to claim the research...
it’s to translate it, pressure-test it, and deliver the signal without the noise so people don’t have to spend 3–5 hours digging through it themselves.
Think of it less like “this came from X” and more like “this is the distilled version of what’s actually worth paying attention to.”
If something doesn’t hold up, I don’t use it. If it does, I make it readable.
I don’t normally watch much YouTube, but House of El is a great watch. Very insightful and informative.
El is always fact based Kevin... so I always pay attention to what she's talking about.
Just finished House of El’s book Awake - well worth the read.
Today’s stock market has two additional defining factors- the bro day trader and algorithm/AI trading. The bro’s have 40 second attention spans, think the S&P is a video game and play pump and dump all day. The other began with the flash crash in 2010. A large investor used an automated program to sell a very big block of S&P futures and that selling pressure interacted with other algorithms and market makers, which amplified the move and caused a brief but severe market collapse.
So the stock market’s voice is still at risk. The bro’s might have learned their lesson about betting on rumour rather than fact but what about AI investing? Conventional investors who track historical data may get blindsided by an AI driven hallucination that tips our reality.
Roxy... great take, and I agree those two forces are now baked into the system.
The “bro trader” noise creates short-term spikes… but it usually burns itself out fast.
That’s just volatility with a short memory.
What’s more interesting (and a lot more dangerous) is what you pointed out on the algorithm/AI side.
Those systems don’t panic... they amplify.
They’re all reading the same signals, reacting in milliseconds, and when something breaks… they don’t question it, they accelerate it.
That’s what we saw in 2010, and the speed has only increased since then.
The real risk now isn’t just bad data... it’s bad interpretation at machine speed.
And here’s where it ties back to the bigger point in the article...
If confidence is already weakening… and you layer in systems that react instantly to shifting signals…
You don’t get smooth corrections anymore.
You get air pockets.
Curious to hear what you think after you go through Awake.
That one’s on my weekend list too 👍
Fred, this is sharp — and you’re putting your finger on something real: not a “crisis event,” but a confidence regime shift.
Let me build on it — because I think there’s one layer beneath what you’re describing.
The “Trump put” didn’t just work because of messaging.
It worked because markets believed there was still a system behind the words.
That’s the part that’s now breaking.
It’s not simply that rhetoric is losing credibility.
It’s that the system can no longer reliably deliver the outcomes the rhetoric implies.
Take your examples:
Oil above $112 is not sentiment — it’s constraint
Supply disruptions are not narrative — they are physical
Conflict escalation is not signalling — it’s structural
At that point, communication loses power because material reality has taken over price discovery.
And that’s where your Europe point becomes much more important than it looks.
Gold repatriation is not about fear of loss.
It’s about redefining the boundary of sovereign control.
Not panic.
Positioning.
The same logic you point to across sectors:
Energy → reduce exposure to external shocks
Technology → control standards and infrastructure
Defence → rebuild industrial capacity
Finance → reduce reliance on external custodians
Gold is just the most symbolic version of that shift.
So I’d frame your core argument slightly differently:
This is not markets “losing faith in Trump.”
It is markets — and allies — adjusting to a world where:
the system is no longer elastic enough to absorb shocks through signalling alone.
And that has a second-order consequence that I think is even more important:
Markets don’t just price fundamentals.
They price governability.
When signalling stops working, what gets repriced is not just assets —
it’s the perceived ability to manage crises.
That’s why this gets dangerous quickly.
Because once the gap opens between:
what leaders say
and
what systems can actually sustain
you don’t get gradual adjustment.
You get synchronised repricing across domains:
energy
risk
alliances
capital flows
So yes — you’re right:
“Confidence doesn’t crash all at once.”
But I’d take it one step further:
Confidence shifts the moment people realise the system can no longer guarantee outcomes — only intentions.
And markets don’t price intentions.
They price constraints.
That’s the real story here.
Hans... appreciate this.
You’re adding a deeper layer to it, and I agree the shift is more structural than most people realize.
Got any long term predictions for EUrope? I agree with others in this thread that getting the gold out of the US will prove difficult, that which is still there. My concern is that it might not matter that much in the end because other resources necessary for re-building are lacking and the world not too keen on helping.
Pax... if I could predict the future, I wouldn’t be writing posts, I’d be on a beach somewhere.
What I can say is this...
Europe is clearly repositioning to rely less on others.
That’s usually not random... it’s a response to something real.
I sincerely hope you wouldn’t be on a beach but writing posts if you could predict the future — for the benefit of us all! 🤓
The way EUropean economies (single states and union) are organised is so fundamentally dependent on extra-European resources that these states and the union itself cannot simply restructure to rely less on others. They will need to start negotiating (no more weapons left to war themselves to the resources), and will have to pay real prices. That lands the European population in a very hard place. That, historically speaking has meant some problematic political reactions in the European populations.
Let’s hope the gold exists and is possible to re-patriate, EUrope sure needs it…
Well done Fred. I forgot I subscribed to you so am just now catching up. My memory at 78 is slipping a bit; I now have a list of every SubStacker I’ve subscribed to. Here’s where I need an icon of me slapping myself up side my head!!! 🤭
Sherry, if that’s “memory slipping,” you’re still running circles around half the market right now 😄
Honestly… the fact you came back, caught up, and took the time to say this?
That’s what matters.
We’re all trying to keep track of a world that seems to change every five minutes...
a list might be the smartest move of all.
Glad you found your way back.
Stick around… things are just starting to get interesting.
As Europe systematically reduces dependence on the US, let us not forget their new credit payment system, moving away from the large American firms.
Exactly Ron... and that’s a big piece of the puzzle most people aren’t watching.
When payment systems start shifting, that’s not politics… that’s plumbing.
It means countries are preparing for a world where access can’t be assumed...
it has to be controlled.
You don’t build alternative rails unless you’re planning to use them.
Well they better hurry up and get their gold before trump takes it all. Actually I would be surprised if there is any there
I get the concern... but if it ever got to the point where countries thought their gold could just be “taken,” we’d be in a very different kind of crisis.
This isn’t really about whether the gold is there…
it’s about who controls it if things get tense.
You don’t wait for a problem to prove itself...
you move before trust gets tested.
That’s the shift we’re starting to see.