The Persian Gulf and other global investors are turning to Hong Kong as a safe haven not US not UK. In the debt market, $10 trillion in American bonds has to roll over this year and it is the worst month for treasury investors since 2022. US is paying 4.3%, EU is 4.9% but China is paying 1.8% for the money it’s borrowing.
America also faces the end of the petrodollar thanks to this US regime. Iran allows a ship’s passage through the Straight of Hormuz if they pay in Chinese currency.
A growing number of countries (Japan, China) and emerging‑market economies—are actively reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in trade and reserves, which creates space for alternatives like the yuan. China now settles roughly one‑third of its good’s trade in yuan.
Are these countries “dumping” U.S. debt as part of currency management, or hedging against the U.S. policy of a failed president? Who is left to buy $10 Trillion in US debt? With all the money Putin’s making from Trump’s sanctions being lifted off of Russian oil maybe it’ll be them or the North Koreans.
I agree, the ground is shifting beneath our feet but it’s intentional to avoid Trump’s tarrifs, lunacy and trade mistakes.
BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, plus new members like Indonesia, Iran, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia) have ramped up local-currency settlements to 90% for some intra-bloc trading. China and Russia increased yuan-ruble swaps, bypassing USD for energy deals. India, Brazil, Thailand and Indonesia bought oil/gas in local currencies to dodge Trump’s sanctions and tariffs. Currently BRIC countries represent 42% of the world’s population.
The CPTPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) total goods trade is now over $10 TRILLION. Trump signed a memorandum on January 23, 2017, his first full day in office, directing the U.S. to withdraw from TPP negotiations and to stop pursuing multilateral Pacific‑wide trade deals. The CPTTT and the EU are currently in advanced trade talks for a digital trade deal focused on data flows bypassing USA completely. The EU’s global trade footprint is $2.2 TRILLION in exports $2.1 TRILLION in imports. This trade relationship was encouraged by Canadian Prime Minister Carney after his Davos speech.
Yes, these could be seen as small incremental moves but they keep adding up and adding up with no end in sight.
Well we might as well hang on, war, debt fallout, crazy president, what could go wrong?
Feels like everything’s stacking at once right now…
But most of this doesn’t break all at once...
it builds quietly, then shows up where people aren’t looking.
That’s usually where the real story is.
The Persian Gulf and other global investors are turning to Hong Kong as a safe haven not US not UK. In the debt market, $10 trillion in American bonds has to roll over this year and it is the worst month for treasury investors since 2022. US is paying 4.3%, EU is 4.9% but China is paying 1.8% for the money it’s borrowing.
America also faces the end of the petrodollar thanks to this US regime. Iran allows a ship’s passage through the Straight of Hormuz if they pay in Chinese currency.
A growing number of countries (Japan, China) and emerging‑market economies—are actively reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in trade and reserves, which creates space for alternatives like the yuan. China now settles roughly one‑third of its good’s trade in yuan.
Are these countries “dumping” U.S. debt as part of currency management, or hedging against the U.S. policy of a failed president? Who is left to buy $10 Trillion in US debt? With all the money Putin’s making from Trump’s sanctions being lifted off of Russian oil maybe it’ll be them or the North Koreans.
There’s definitely a shift happening Roxy...
no argument there.
But it’s less about countries “dumping” everything…
and more about gradual repositioning.
Diversifying reserves.
Using local currencies more.
Reducing dependency where they can.
That doesn’t mean the system flips overnight.
The U.S. dollar and Treasury market are still the deepest and most liquid on the planet...
that doesn’t get replaced quickly.
What is changing is the margin…
Less automatic demand.
More price sensitivity.
More alternatives being built quietly in the background.
And when you’ve got that much debt rolling over, even small changes in demand can have outsized effects.
That’s the part that matters.
I agree, the ground is shifting beneath our feet but it’s intentional to avoid Trump’s tarrifs, lunacy and trade mistakes.
BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, plus new members like Indonesia, Iran, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia) have ramped up local-currency settlements to 90% for some intra-bloc trading. China and Russia increased yuan-ruble swaps, bypassing USD for energy deals. India, Brazil, Thailand and Indonesia bought oil/gas in local currencies to dodge Trump’s sanctions and tariffs. Currently BRIC countries represent 42% of the world’s population.
The CPTPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) total goods trade is now over $10 TRILLION. Trump signed a memorandum on January 23, 2017, his first full day in office, directing the U.S. to withdraw from TPP negotiations and to stop pursuing multilateral Pacific‑wide trade deals. The CPTTT and the EU are currently in advanced trade talks for a digital trade deal focused on data flows bypassing USA completely. The EU’s global trade footprint is $2.2 TRILLION in exports $2.1 TRILLION in imports. This trade relationship was encouraged by Canadian Prime Minister Carney after his Davos speech.
Yes, these could be seen as small incremental moves but they keep adding up and adding up with no end in sight.
Noone will buy our debt. Those that have, Trump has insulted every single country,
As always, American taxpayers will pick up the tab…..except when we can’t.
There’s definitely a trust issue creeping in… no question.
But it’s usually not as simple as “no one will buy the debt.”
There’s still demand... the real shift is how that demand is changing.
Less blind confidence.
More selective buying.
Higher rates needed to attract capital.
That’s where the pressure builds.
And when that happens… it doesn’t break overnight...
it slowly tightens the system until something gives.
That’s the part I’m watching closely right now.