I don’t get terribly excited about individual polls.
Never have.
Show me one poll saying Canadians suddenly love somebody and I’ll show you another one coming next Tuesday saying we’ve changed our minds.
We’re Canadians. Changing our minds while complaining about the weather is practically a constitutional right.
But something caught my attention this week.
It wasn’t one poll.
It was the pile.
Abacus Data has the Liberals at 47%, Conservatives at 33% … a 14-point gap and the largest Liberal lead Abacus has recorded since 2017. Government approval sits at 59%.
Abacus Data… September 2026 polling
Then look elsewhere.
Recent polling reported by Nanos had the Liberals at 48% and Conservatives at 31%.
Léger had them 49% to 33%.
Liaison had them 44% to 32%.
Different pollsters. Different methodologies. Different samples.
Same general direction.
Nobody should confuse that with an election result. Polls measure opinion at a particular moment. They don’t hand anybody the keys to 24 Sussex.
But then Canadians actually voted.
On August 31, there were three federal by-elections.
The Liberals won all three.
In Beaches… East York, Liberal Tanveer Shahnawaz took 55.8%. The Conservative candidate finished third at 15.5%.
Elections Canada… Beaches… East York result
In North Vancouver… Capilano, Liberal Braeden Caley won 58.7% compared with 29.2% for the Conservative candidate.
Elections Canada… North Vancouver… Capilano result
And in Chicoutimi… Le Fjord, the Liberals didn’t merely hold a seat.
They took one from the Bloc.
Daniel Gobeil won 51.6%. The Bloc finished second at 32.8%. The Conservatives finished third with 12.6%.
Elections Canada… Chicoutimi… Le Fjord result
Now I’m interested.
Because we’ve moved from somebody answering a polling question while eating supper to somebody putting pants on, leaving the house and voting.
That’s a slightly more persuasive focus group.
And then there’s that 70% number.
You’ve probably seen it floating around.
Let’s get it right.
A large Spark Advocacy survey of 6,535 Canadians found 70% approved of the way the federal government led by Mark Carney was handling its responsibilities.
That’s government approval… not a 70% personal approval rating for Carney.
Still, seventy bloody percent is seventy bloody percent.
The same survey had the Liberals at 49% and Conservatives at 29%.
Spark Advocacy… September polling
So what the hell is happening?
I don’t think Canadians suddenly woke up one morning and discovered an uncontrollable passion for the Liberal Party.
I certainly didn’t.
There’s a much bigger thing happening around us.
Donald Trump has changed Canadian politics.
Abacus found 46% of Canadians named the Trump administration among their top concerns, behind only the cost of living, while 68% said the Liberals were the party they trusted most to deal with the Trump administration.
That matters.
Because Canadian politics is no longer happening inside the old Liberal-versus-Conservative box.
We’re arguing about tariffs.
Trade.
Economic independence.
Defence.
Europe.
Energy.
Critical minerals.
And whether Canada’s relationship with the United States can ever go back to what it was.
Carney happens to be prime minister while that argument is taking place.
And right now, the polling suggests a lot of Canadians approve of how his government is handling it.
That’s a political fact.
Not a prediction about the next election.
Then Calgary did something interesting.
On September 14, Alberta held a provincial by-election in Calgary-Shaw.
This wasn’t exactly downtown Vancouver.
Calgary-Shaw has been reliable Conservative territory for decades. The UCP won it comfortably in 2023.
The NDP’s Kyle Campbell just flipped it.
He defeated UCP candidate Mike Derry by more than 500 votes.
Calgary-Shaw by-election result
One riding does not mean Alberta has turned orange.
Good grief.
But when a governing party loses a seat it was widely expected to hold, political people notice.
They should.
And over here in British Columbia, things have become downright weird.
The B.C. Conservatives elected Kerry-Lynne Findlay leader in May.
Since then, nine MLAs have left her caucus.
Nine.
Findlay said this week that she’s “not going anywhere” and described the party as going through growing pains.
Canadian Press report on the B.C. Conservatives
You can decide whether losing nine MLAs qualifies as growing pains.
At my age, if nine pieces suddenly fall off me, I’m calling an ambulance.
But here’s where I stop trying to squeeze all of this into some grand theory about Canadians permanently abandoning one political philosophy for another.
Because the evidence doesn’t say that.
Manitoba’s Wab Kinew currently has the highest approval among premiers measured by Angus Reid at 63%.
Saskatchewan Conservative Premier Scott Moe is at 48%.
Ontario Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford jumped ten points to 31%, although he remains the lowest-rated premier in that survey.
Alberta’s Danielle Smith sits at 38%.
Angus Reid… September premier approval ratings
That’s messy.
Politics usually is.
But something is moving.
And I think the more interesting question isn’t whether Canadians have suddenly become Liberal, Conservative, NDP or anything else.
It’s whether the thing Canadians are rewarding has changed.
For years our politics revolved around housing, inflation, immigration, health care, carbon taxes and Justin Trudeau.
Those issues haven’t disappeared.
But another question has barged into the room…
Who do Canadians trust to handle Canada in a world where our largest trading partner has become unpredictable?
That question didn’t dominate Canadian politics a couple of years ago.
It sure as hell does now.
And at this particular moment, the polling and the ballot boxes are telling us something remarkably similar.
Canadians aren’t merely listening to what politicians are saying.
They’re watching how they respond when Canada gets pushed around.
That’s the political shift I’m watching.
Not left versus right.
Not Liberal versus Conservative.
Competence under pressure.
Because Trump didn’t just start a trade war.
He changed the test Canadian politicians are being graded on.
And some of them haven’t figured that out yet.
The Recap…
Something is moving in Canadian politics.
One poll? Ignore it.
Several pollsters showing roughly the same movement… followed by three Liberal federal by-election wins and an NDP upset in Calgary-Shaw?
Now I’m paying attention.
The interesting question isn’t whether Canada moved left or right.
It’s whether Canadians changed the test.
The Gut-Punch…
Trump may have accidentally done something Canadian political strategists couldn’t.
He changed what Canadians expect from their leaders.
The old question was…
“Which party do you support?”
The new one may be…
“Who do you trust when Canada gets pushed?”
That’s a very different election question.
Source credit:
Research notes originated from a political commentary transcript supplied for this article. I independently checked the central claims against current polling and election reporting before using them.
Primary and supporting sources: Abacus Data, Spark Advocacy, Elections Canada, Elections Alberta/Canadian Press reporting, Angus Reid Institute and Canadian Press reporting on the B.C. Conservative caucus.
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Fred, these lines in your outstanding article caught my attention: "Because Trump didn’t just start a trade war. He changed the test Canadian politicians are being graded on."
And the thing that stands out to me is that PP is failing the test and has a grade of "F." The recent by-election results certainly indicate broad support for our PM. The pathetic results for the CPC point to the huge unpopularity of PP. I and many others find him very unlikeable, and IMHO, the CPC will continue to be unelectable with him as leader. Canadians sure dodged a bullet in our last federal election.
I find your post interesting from a different perspective. I follow the 338Canada poling results quite frequently, and all your numbers are correct, of course. But in our current and not-likely-to-change-any-time-soon method of vote counting, that translates into 228 Liberals seats and just 88 Conservatives seats with a smattering of PQ, NDP and Green, which is a far greater lead than the 13% difference in the poll percentages. That more accurately reflects the winners under a Proportional Representation system.