There are times when politicians should stop talking.
This may be one of them for Pierre Poilievre.
Canada has three federal by-elections coming August 31: North Vancouver–Capilano in British Columbia, Beaches–East York in Ontario and Chicoutimi–Le Fjord in Quebec.
Normally, these things are local contests.
Candidates knock on doors. They talk about the riding. They try to convince voters that they deserve the job.
But something interesting happened in North Vancouver.
The Conservative candidate started talking about what voters are telling him about Pierre Poilievre.
And that’s when this stopped being just another by-election story.
The Message Coming From the Doorsteps
The Conservative candidate in North Vancouver–Capilano is Stephen Curran.
At an all-candidates event, an audience member described Poilievre as extremely divisive and questioned whether Conservatives were willing to work constructively with the government and other opposition parties.
Curran didn’t brush the concern aside.
He acknowledged that he has heard the same sort of thing while knocking on doors.
Then came another complaint.
According to Curran, voters are also telling him that Conservatives seem to spend their time criticizing without offering solutions.
That’s worth paying attention to.
Not because a Liberal said it.
Not because some columnist said it.
Not because Fred Ferguson sitting on Vancouver Island said it.
A Conservative candidate says he’s hearing it from voters while campaigning.
That’s political information you don’t need a pollster to explain.
Then Poilievre Was Asked About It
This is where the story gets more interesting.
Poilievre was subsequently asked about Curran’s remarks.
Rather than acknowledge that his candidate was encountering criticism of his leadership, Poilievre accused the Liberals of misrepresenting Curran and Global News of reproducing that misrepresentation.
He said Curran strongly supported him becoming Canada’s next prime minister.
There’s a problem with making that the answer.
It doesn’t make the original comments disappear.
Curran had acknowledged hearing criticism of Poilievre on the doorsteps.
And when talking to voters at that event, Curran also reminded them of something rather revealing:
Poilievre and the Conservative caucus aren’t on the ballot.
Curran is.
You don’t need a degree in political science to understand why a candidate might want voters thinking about the local name on the ballot rather than the party leader.
That’s the Part Poilievre Should Be Thinking About
Forget whether you like Pierre Poilievre.
Forget whether you like Mark Carney.
Forget the partisan jerseys for five minutes.
Think about this purely as political strategy.
Your candidate is knocking on doors.
He’s hearing complaints about your leadership.
He’s trying to persuade voters to judge him rather than the national party.
What should the national leader do?
Probably give the fellow some room.
Instead, Poilievre inserted himself directly into the story.
Now we’re talking about Pierre Poilievre.
Again.
That may be exactly what Curran didn’t need.
And North Vancouver Isn’t Some Imaginary Hellscape
There’s another wrinkle here.
Poilievre has repeatedly built his political message around crime, disorder and what he describes as chaos in Canadian communities.
Recently, he told the story of meeting a woman who had moved from Vancouver to Mexico because she felt safer there.
People can obviously move wherever they please and feel however they feel.
But anecdotes aren’t statistics.
Statistics Canada reported that Vancouver’s rate of firearm-related violent crime actually fell to its lowest level in 15 years in 2024.
That doesn’t mean Vancouver has no crime.
Of course it does.
Every major city does.
It means something simpler…
If you’re going to describe a Canadian city as engulfed in chaos, Canadians living in that city are perfectly capable of looking out their own bloody windows.
And then your candidate has to knock on their doors.
Quebec May Be Even More Interesting
The other race I’ll be watching closely is Chicoutimi–Le Fjord.
Not because I’m going to predict the result.
I’m not.
That’s what elections are for.
But here’s what actually happened there in the 2025 federal election.
Conservative Richard Martel won with 34.1%.
The Bloc Québécois received 31.2%.
The Liberals received 31.1%.
Think about that.
Conservative: 34.1%.
Bloc: 31.2%.
Liberal: 31.1%.
That’s not an impregnable Conservative fortress.
That’s three parties squeezed into roughly three percentage points.
So August 31 gives us something useful.
A test.
This Isn’t Really About Three Seats
That’s what makes these by-elections more interesting than the usual midterm political housekeeping.
Poilievre spent the last federal campaign asking Canadians to make him prime minister.
They didn’t.
Now he has returned to Parliament and continues campaigning aggressively against Mark Carney and the Liberal government.
Fine.
He’s Leader of the Opposition.
Opposition is part of the job.
But there’s a difference between opposition and permanent campaigning.
Canadians may be starting to ask what comes after the criticism.
What’s the alternative?
What’s the proposal?
What’s the better idea?
Apparently some voters in North Vancouver are asking exactly that.
And one Conservative candidate has admitted hearing them.
August 31 Will Tell Us Something
I don’t know who’s going to win all three seats.
Neither does the YouTube guy whose transcript sent me down this rabbit hole.
Neither does Pierre Poilievre.
Neither does Mark Carney.
That’s why we count ballots.
But here’s what I’ll be watching.
If Conservative candidates outperform expectations, Poilievre gets ammunition to argue that his message still travels.
If they underperform… particularly in a riding Conservatives held like Chicoutimi–Le Fjord… the questions about his leadership get harder to dismiss.
And if Conservative candidates themselves increasingly feel the need to tell voters…
Don’t worry about Pierre. I’m the one on the ballot.
Well...
The Conservative Party may have a bigger problem than three by-elections.
Because eventually a political leader has to become an asset to the people running under his banner.
Not something they have to explain at the door.
The Recap…
Three federal by-elections hit Canada August 31.
In North Vancouver, Conservative candidate Stephen Curran says he’s hearing criticism of Pierre Poilievre from voters at the doors.
That’s more important than somebody’s YouTube prediction.
Forget predicting the results.
Watch what Conservative candidates themselves are telling us.
The Gut-Punch…
When your own candidates have to remind voters that you’re not on the ballot, maybe the problem isn’t the media.
Maybe it’s you.
Source credit…
Research lead: creator transcript supplied to GeezerWise.
Primary verification: Elections Canada official 2026 by-election information and 2025 Chicoutimi–Le Fjord election results; Global News reporting on Stephen Curran’s North Vancouver–Capilano comments and Pierre Poilievre’s response; Statistics Canada 2024 firearm-related violent-crime data.
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It will be very interesting to see how these 3 elections play out, especially the one in Quebec where the candidates were so close the last time. These will all be a pretty clear indication, spread across the country, how people feel about the job Mark Carney is doing for us. Ditto for peoples feelings towards P.P.
Ahhh now I get why pp is going American Iranian shaw business the large population of Iranians in North Van. Hopefully they understand that pp and his games are irrelevant to Iranian government issues.