What is so surprising is the blatant, flaunt it in your face attitude, with regards to these market moves. They are not even trying to hide what they are doing. It's "look at what we are doing and you can't do anything about it".
They’re just following the lead of their (gulp) president. If he’s immune, they think that either it transfers automatically to them, or they’re covered. Either way it seems they’re correct. So why stop.
Yes absolutely. With all due respect Fred, and I do respect you and your work, I do believe that in this current climate, with an extremely corrupted Supreme Court, proximity to immunity seems to have that effect.
Thanks Fred. Always appreciate your feedback as well. I think that it’s not just the length of time it takes to pursue wrongdoing, as it is the lack of any motivation to proceed, notwithstanding the laws and other “protections” that need to be acted upon that complicates the issue.
Fred I have been following this story since it was mentioned on MSNOW. It’s so obvious that the corruption might as well come with flashing lights. Now, any guesses who got the info early? Lutnick, Bessent, or old faithful Don Jr? Or it could be all of them and more. I read somewhere that Kegsbreath is suddenly stock trading too. The corruption is blatant. Unfortunately there is no insider trading laws for futures markets and the one woman in the FTC that noticed, their office has been stripped of employees too, got fired. You couldn’t make this stuff up it’s so unbelievable. I think they announced yesterday that some Democrat wants to look into these trades but their hands are pretty much tied till the midterms. The best they can do it forecast what they are looking at.
The other thing that I personally find abhorrent are the Polymarket and Kalshi bets. Someone cashed in big on the time the leader of Iran would be killed. How immoral is that?
And now the UAE is asking the US for a bail out? And Trump is considering it.
The corruption is so blatant , it’s hard to believe and keep up with.
Shelagh… I get why this feels like flashing neon signs.
But I’m going to pull this back to solid ground for a second...
because naming specific people as if they definitely got inside info crosses from observation into accusation pretty fast, and that’s a different game altogether.
What is fair to say?
There are a few things all happening at once that make this feel ugly...
1) The structure of futures markets
Oil futures are fast, leveraged, and global.
Big players (hedge funds, energy firms, institutions) routinely place massive trades based on models, intelligence, and geopolitical analysis.
When they’re right... especially around news events... it can look uncannily precise.
2) The timing problem
When trades land minutes before announcements, it raises eyebrows... and rightly so.
That’s why regulators look at patterns, not just one-off trades.
But proving insider trading (especially in commodities/futures) is notoriously hard unless there’s a clear trail.
3) The “it looks rigged” effect
Even without proven wrongdoing, repeated well-timed moves create the perception that the game isn’t level.
And perception matters... because once people lose trust, everything starts to look like manipulation.
4) Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi
This is where your discomfort is completely understandable.
Betting on geopolitical outcomes... especially violent ones... crosses into ethical gray territory fast.
Even if it’s framed as “forecasting,” it can feel like people are turning real-world suffering into a scoreboard.
The bigger picture... and this is the part that ties back to your gut reaction...
You’re watching a system where...
information moves unevenly, money amplifies tiny advantages, and outcomes affect people far removed from the trades themselves
That combination always feels like corruption… even when parts of it are technically legal.
And yeah… it’s exhausting to keep up with.
Not because nothing’s happening... but because too much is happening at once, and it all points in the same direction.
Have your whole writeup broadcasted on the news far & wide, so, Americans can make good decisions come the midterms, which will be lied about, votes garbaged & only keep in favour ones. Americans are waiting for that time to get the wicked out, but, he will still be staying...sad! !!! So, the person that made the bet on Irans leader, is the murderer or accomplice, wow!
Great article Fred! Very frustrating though! They pull their robbery pranks while most people are still sleeping, or, getting ready for work, getting kids ready for school & don't have time to check what the Robbers are doing now! Surely there are laws about these things??? I get $billion dollars, while you pay outrageous prices to me! A forest full of p*icks, making the little people pay. We don't have the $Billions to easily fight back with. When are people gonna wake up & oust the stinky louse?
As an adjunct Fred can you do an analysis of what I consider the biggest lie of all. That Canada has taken advantage of the US for years as evidenced by the trade deficits. IE the US bought more from Canada than Canada bought from the US. The absurdity and the lack of legitimacy that trade deficits are indicative of a defective trading relationship has largely gone unchallenged. Its the nature of the imports that matter. Somewhere between 60 and 70 percent of Canadian exports are raw materials eg oil, potash, uranium, rare earth minetals or unfinished products such as rolled steel and aliminum ignots. Oil which the US buys at a 7 to 10% discount because until trans mountain all pipelines and 4 million barrels a day went south. This raw crude was refined by the US in Gulf coast and mid west refineries into a broad array of fuels, lubricants and feedstock for plastics and other industries. This oil provides for the employment of multiple thousands and creates tremendous wealth for the US and a seriously larger GDP. That is the true measure of the value of the relationship. Why hasn't anyone called the US out on this biggest lie of all that the US has always been the biggest GDP winner in its trading relationship with Canada. They crapped on it not because it was economically harmful it wasn't, they were the big winner.
Why has no one challenged the Trump regime on the biggest lie of all and why by not addressing the truth do we by default continue to give the biggest lie any oxygen. The average Anerican would understand if someone took the time to explain. Maybe wake up a few crickets.
Id rather want to believe a more nefarious plan executed in plain sight. The plan was economic terrorism to either vasalize Canada or acquire it in some manner. The pretext used to justify the tariffs was absurd (232 national security) and not grounded in any reality where secure aluminum from Canada was replaced by the principally the UAE and one of thevother arab states. China even got in there for 220,000 metric tons, (someone profiting from Chinese dumping and America sat on their hands which to me said the thought of the masses had to be that maybe this will turn in our favor. A combined USA plus 51st Canada and the territory of Greenland under the flag of the USA must have been intoxcating to many or why was there only crickets.
So Im angry as we all should be. So I want to believe the grifter in chief combined terrorism of an ally with a grifting opportunity. It fits his modus operandi. It lines up enough for me. Sometimes all you need to do is look at the players to understand the game being played.
I’ve been saying since George W. Bush was in office that the American stock market is not a valid expression of the value of anything in the USA or anywhere else on the planet. What it is, is a way for the wealthy in the United States to enrich themselves even more when they get little tiny bits of insider trading!
Nothing on the American Stock Exchange represents reality. It’s all a massive Con!
Had a great chat with my Carline Leavitt surogate chat gpt. It concerned Canaduan Aluminum and the 232 tariffs. The chat originally was a question of merit of the tariffs in the first place. Nothing but Caroline Leavitt responses. But the reality was 2 things happened. Prices rose in the US and Canadian low carbon aluminum was replaced by gas fired UAE aluminum. Say what. These guys do more business under the table thrn on it. Rule of the purse is who you do business with when your a grifter. So create a fictitious tariff woul local aluminum buddies make more and do a deal with the UAE and make a few bucks for you Jared and your other buddies. Was the end result of economic terrorism self enrichment. Maybe Trump does play some chess. I thought he had difficulty with tic tak toe. Follow the money because they switched Canadian aluminum for UAE aluminum using tariff pricing as the facilitating mechanism claiming a national security risk and no one said WTF. Looks good noe that future aluminum supply is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.
If you could follow the money I bet my suspicion has legs.
The stats say UAE which was a tertiary supplier of imported aluminum and is now the principal supplier to the US. So the roles have reversed. Canada is now im a group of back ip suppliers. Chat gpt directly looked up those facts for me.
Checked with Claude. If you ask for 2025 it says Canada which makes sense as committed work and soecual orders would need to be completed even after tariffs were implemented. For 2026 it says UAE is the principal supplier. This makes sense in that the transition occurred after the order books were cleared. Srill smells like grift and stupidity to me.
So did some more digging. Kushner is being investigated for his dealings. The UAE and Century have formed a joint venture to build a new 700,000 ton mill somewhere in America. Century swiss owned owners arr friendly with Trump and their own pac contributed to his campaign. The UAE and Bahrain both are subject to 50% 232 tariffs so at face value the pricing probably isnt the driver abd economics driving it our not clear. What is clear is the direct lines of influence to the trump family. Ps Century 2025 profits were up high teens and stock price rose dramatically. Alcoa with interests in both Canada and the US fared less well. So a billionaire with connections is an ibvious big winner because the 25% previous tariffs didnt do enough, ramp it to 50 and you get a possible new plant between Century and the UAE and big bank for Century. Crony capitalism at its finest. The big losers as a result of the resulting inflation - all of the non billionaire class.
Fun fact, Itan bombed both the UAE and Bahrain aluminum plants and caused significant damage. Also with the Straight of Hormuz turmoil future sales me be somewhat constrained
What is so surprising is the blatant, flaunt it in your face attitude, with regards to these market moves. They are not even trying to hide what they are doing. It's "look at what we are doing and you can't do anything about it".
Ron… yeah, that’s the part that makes people sit up.
It’s not just the money... it’s the confidence behind it.
When moves get that bold, it usually means one of two things...
either they know nobody’s watching closely enough…
or they know nothing meaningful will come of it even if someone is.
And that’s where the real shift is.
It stops feeling like a hidden game…
and starts looking like a protected one.
They’re just following the lead of their (gulp) president. If he’s immune, they think that either it transfers automatically to them, or they’re covered. Either way it seems they’re correct. So why stop.
Patricia… I get why it feels that way.
When people at the top push boundaries, it can trickle down into a sense that the rules are… flexible.
But it’s less about “immunity spreading” and more about enforcement and proof.
There are rules in these markets... they’re overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission... but acting on them takes time and hard evidence.
In the meantime, bold moves keep happening…
and from the outside, it looks like nobody’s getting checked.
That gap is what’s fueling the frustration.
Yes absolutely. With all due respect Fred, and I do respect you and your work, I do believe that in this current climate, with an extremely corrupted Supreme Court, proximity to immunity seems to have that effect.
Patricia… fair point... and I get where you’re coming from.
When rulings expand what looks like protection at the top, it can feel like that protection trickles down.
The Supreme Court of the United States decisions lately have definitely fed that perception.
Where I’d separate it is this...
Perception of immunity ≠ actual immunity in markets.
There are still rules, and they’re enforced by bodies like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission...
just not as fast or as visibly as people expect.
So what we’re really seeing is a gap...
confidence at the top…
and skepticism everywhere else.
That gap is what’s making everything look (and feel) a lot more corrupt than it already is.
Thanks Fred. Always appreciate your feedback as well. I think that it’s not just the length of time it takes to pursue wrongdoing, as it is the lack of any motivation to proceed, notwithstanding the laws and other “protections” that need to be acted upon that complicates the issue.
Fred I have been following this story since it was mentioned on MSNOW. It’s so obvious that the corruption might as well come with flashing lights. Now, any guesses who got the info early? Lutnick, Bessent, or old faithful Don Jr? Or it could be all of them and more. I read somewhere that Kegsbreath is suddenly stock trading too. The corruption is blatant. Unfortunately there is no insider trading laws for futures markets and the one woman in the FTC that noticed, their office has been stripped of employees too, got fired. You couldn’t make this stuff up it’s so unbelievable. I think they announced yesterday that some Democrat wants to look into these trades but their hands are pretty much tied till the midterms. The best they can do it forecast what they are looking at.
The other thing that I personally find abhorrent are the Polymarket and Kalshi bets. Someone cashed in big on the time the leader of Iran would be killed. How immoral is that?
And now the UAE is asking the US for a bail out? And Trump is considering it.
The corruption is so blatant , it’s hard to believe and keep up with.
Anyway, my rant for 4:00 AM.
Keep up the great work!!
Shelagh… I get why this feels like flashing neon signs.
But I’m going to pull this back to solid ground for a second...
because naming specific people as if they definitely got inside info crosses from observation into accusation pretty fast, and that’s a different game altogether.
What is fair to say?
There are a few things all happening at once that make this feel ugly...
1) The structure of futures markets
Oil futures are fast, leveraged, and global.
Big players (hedge funds, energy firms, institutions) routinely place massive trades based on models, intelligence, and geopolitical analysis.
When they’re right... especially around news events... it can look uncannily precise.
2) The timing problem
When trades land minutes before announcements, it raises eyebrows... and rightly so.
That’s why regulators look at patterns, not just one-off trades.
But proving insider trading (especially in commodities/futures) is notoriously hard unless there’s a clear trail.
3) The “it looks rigged” effect
Even without proven wrongdoing, repeated well-timed moves create the perception that the game isn’t level.
And perception matters... because once people lose trust, everything starts to look like manipulation.
4) Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi
This is where your discomfort is completely understandable.
Betting on geopolitical outcomes... especially violent ones... crosses into ethical gray territory fast.
Even if it’s framed as “forecasting,” it can feel like people are turning real-world suffering into a scoreboard.
The bigger picture... and this is the part that ties back to your gut reaction...
You’re watching a system where...
information moves unevenly, money amplifies tiny advantages, and outcomes affect people far removed from the trades themselves
That combination always feels like corruption… even when parts of it are technically legal.
And yeah… it’s exhausting to keep up with.
Not because nothing’s happening... but because too much is happening at once, and it all points in the same direction.
That early-morning rant?
You’re not alone in it.
So sorry about my blunder naming names this morning. I still think it’s awfully convenient that people made money in those short time periods.
Shelagh... no worries at all.
Happens to all of us when something doesn’t pass the smell test.
And you’re right… “convenient” is the word.
That kind of timing is exactly why regulators like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pay attention to patterns, not just single trades.
One lucky trade? Fine.
The same kind of timing over and over?
That’s when eyebrows go up.
So yeah… you don’t need to name names to see what’s worth watching.
Have your whole writeup broadcasted on the news far & wide, so, Americans can make good decisions come the midterms, which will be lied about, votes garbaged & only keep in favour ones. Americans are waiting for that time to get the wicked out, but, he will still be staying...sad! !!! So, the person that made the bet on Irans leader, is the murderer or accomplice, wow!
Patsy… I get the frustration, but we’ve got to keep the line between what feels true and what we can actually prove.
There are laws around this...
oil futures are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission...
and insider trading or manipulation is illegal.
But a well-timed trade doesn’t automatically mean someone caused an event or was involved in it.
That’s a big leap, and it’s not something you can tie together without hard evidence.
What is fair to call out is the pattern...
Big money is getting positioned before the public sees the news.
That’s where the real issue sits... and that’s the part worth paying attention to.
Exactly Fred!
Shocking that it’s not being tackled by the SEC and the FBI
Deirdre… it looks like a straight line... “something smells off → why aren’t the big cops on it?”
but the plumbing is a bit different.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission mainly handles stocks and securities.
Oil futures sit in a different lane, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
So if anything is being looked at, that’s usually where it starts.
As for the Federal Bureau of Investigation... they don’t typically jump in first.
They get involved if (and when) a regulator builds a case that points to criminal activity.
Two things that make this frustrating to watch...
These markets move fast, investigations don’t.
What takes minutes to trade can take months (or longer) to prove.
Timing ≠ proof.
Even when trades look perfectly timed, regulators have to show how someone knew...
not just that they were right.
So from the outside, it feels like nothing’s happening…
when in reality it’s either moving slowly behind the scenes...
or not yet strong enough to act on.
Either way, the gap between what people see and what gets enforced is exactly what’s driving the skepticism.
I didn’t know that (I live in Ireland), thank you for the info.
I love your analyses - and the backup data sources. 👍
Great article Fred! Very frustrating though! They pull their robbery pranks while most people are still sleeping, or, getting ready for work, getting kids ready for school & don't have time to check what the Robbers are doing now! Surely there are laws about these things??? I get $billion dollars, while you pay outrageous prices to me! A forest full of p*icks, making the little people pay. We don't have the $Billions to easily fight back with. When are people gonna wake up & oust the stinky louse?
There are laws Patsy... oil futures fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The problem isn’t “nothing’s illegal.”
The problem is proving it... and that takes time.
Meanwhile, big players have speed, data, and positioning the public never sees.
So it feels like a robbery… even when it’s technically the rules of the game.
As an adjunct Fred can you do an analysis of what I consider the biggest lie of all. That Canada has taken advantage of the US for years as evidenced by the trade deficits. IE the US bought more from Canada than Canada bought from the US. The absurdity and the lack of legitimacy that trade deficits are indicative of a defective trading relationship has largely gone unchallenged. Its the nature of the imports that matter. Somewhere between 60 and 70 percent of Canadian exports are raw materials eg oil, potash, uranium, rare earth minetals or unfinished products such as rolled steel and aliminum ignots. Oil which the US buys at a 7 to 10% discount because until trans mountain all pipelines and 4 million barrels a day went south. This raw crude was refined by the US in Gulf coast and mid west refineries into a broad array of fuels, lubricants and feedstock for plastics and other industries. This oil provides for the employment of multiple thousands and creates tremendous wealth for the US and a seriously larger GDP. That is the true measure of the value of the relationship. Why hasn't anyone called the US out on this biggest lie of all that the US has always been the biggest GDP winner in its trading relationship with Canada. They crapped on it not because it was economically harmful it wasn't, they were the big winner.
Why has no one challenged the Trump regime on the biggest lie of all and why by not addressing the truth do we by default continue to give the biggest lie any oxygen. The average Anerican would understand if someone took the time to explain. Maybe wake up a few crickets.
Larry… I get where you’re going with this.
What I do here is pretty simple...
I break down what’s being reported, highlight what stands out,
and move on to the next piece.
I write every day, across a bunch of topics… not just one lane.
This one just happens to be about market timing and positioning.
Id rather want to believe a more nefarious plan executed in plain sight. The plan was economic terrorism to either vasalize Canada or acquire it in some manner. The pretext used to justify the tariffs was absurd (232 national security) and not grounded in any reality where secure aluminum from Canada was replaced by the principally the UAE and one of thevother arab states. China even got in there for 220,000 metric tons, (someone profiting from Chinese dumping and America sat on their hands which to me said the thought of the masses had to be that maybe this will turn in our favor. A combined USA plus 51st Canada and the territory of Greenland under the flag of the USA must have been intoxcating to many or why was there only crickets.
So Im angry as we all should be. So I want to believe the grifter in chief combined terrorism of an ally with a grifting opportunity. It fits his modus operandi. It lines up enough for me. Sometimes all you need to do is look at the players to understand the game being played.
I’ve been saying since George W. Bush was in office that the American stock market is not a valid expression of the value of anything in the USA or anywhere else on the planet. What it is, is a way for the wealthy in the United States to enrich themselves even more when they get little tiny bits of insider trading!
Nothing on the American Stock Exchange represents reality. It’s all a massive Con!
Alexis… I wouldn’t go as far as calling it a complete con... but I get why it feels that way.
Markets aren’t a pure reflection of reality. They’re a mix of...
expectations
speculation
and yes… sometimes information advantages
There are rules...
enforced by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission...
and insider trading is illegal.
But here’s the uncomfortable middle ground...
Markets do reflect value over time…
just not always in the moment.
In the short term, money, speed, and positioning can distort things enough that it looks detached from reality.
So it’s not “nothing is real”…
it’s that the game isn’t being played on a level field.
And once people see that clearly, it’s hard to unsee it.
Had a great chat with my Carline Leavitt surogate chat gpt. It concerned Canaduan Aluminum and the 232 tariffs. The chat originally was a question of merit of the tariffs in the first place. Nothing but Caroline Leavitt responses. But the reality was 2 things happened. Prices rose in the US and Canadian low carbon aluminum was replaced by gas fired UAE aluminum. Say what. These guys do more business under the table thrn on it. Rule of the purse is who you do business with when your a grifter. So create a fictitious tariff woul local aluminum buddies make more and do a deal with the UAE and make a few bucks for you Jared and your other buddies. Was the end result of economic terrorism self enrichment. Maybe Trump does play some chess. I thought he had difficulty with tic tak toe. Follow the money because they switched Canadian aluminum for UAE aluminum using tariff pricing as the facilitating mechanism claiming a national security risk and no one said WTF. Looks good noe that future aluminum supply is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.
If you could follow the money I bet my suspicion has legs.
Larry… there’s a legit concern buried in there...
but you’re stacking a few different things into one chain.
The Section 232 tariffs were framed as national security, and yeah, they pushed prices around.
U.S. buyers don’t just “switch” overnight though...
Canadian supply is still a major part of the system.
But when prices jump, buyers do look elsewhere, including places like the UAE.
That’s market reaction more than a clean swap.
Where your instinct lands, though, is on something real...
When policy moves markets,
someone benefits.
The hard part is proving who knew what, and when...
because without that, it stays in the realm of suspicion, not evidence.
Still… you’re asking the right question...
Follow the money.
Just don’t assume the answer before the trail is actually there.
The stats say UAE which was a tertiary supplier of imported aluminum and is now the principal supplier to the US. So the roles have reversed. Canada is now im a group of back ip suppliers. Chat gpt directly looked up those facts for me.
Checked with Claude. If you ask for 2025 it says Canada which makes sense as committed work and soecual orders would need to be completed even after tariffs were implemented. For 2026 it says UAE is the principal supplier. This makes sense in that the transition occurred after the order books were cleared. Srill smells like grift and stupidity to me.
Larry… I’d put a bit of a guardrail around that conclusion.
Canada hasn’t quietly slipped into “backup supplier” status.
It’s still one of the primary sources of aluminum for the U.S., largely because of proximity, integrated supply chains,
and the fact that a lot of North American manufacturing is built around that relationship.
What does happen when tariffs or pricing shifts hit is this...
Buyers start layering in alternative suppliers...
including places like the UAE...
especially for specific contracts or price windows.
So you can get snapshots or datasets that make it look like a sudden switch…
when it’s really a mix of...
timing (orders already in motion)
pricing arbitrage
and short-term sourcing decisions
AI tools pulling different years or datasets can easily give conflicting answers if the underlying data isn’t aligned.
Where your instinct still holds...
When policy changes…
supply chains adjust…
and somebody benefits from that shift.
That’s not automatically grift...
but it’s exactly the kind of situation where people should be asking questions.
Just don’t let messy data turn into a clean conclusion too fast.
Hemp
So did some more digging. Kushner is being investigated for his dealings. The UAE and Century have formed a joint venture to build a new 700,000 ton mill somewhere in America. Century swiss owned owners arr friendly with Trump and their own pac contributed to his campaign. The UAE and Bahrain both are subject to 50% 232 tariffs so at face value the pricing probably isnt the driver abd economics driving it our not clear. What is clear is the direct lines of influence to the trump family. Ps Century 2025 profits were up high teens and stock price rose dramatically. Alcoa with interests in both Canada and the US fared less well. So a billionaire with connections is an ibvious big winner because the 25% previous tariffs didnt do enough, ramp it to 50 and you get a possible new plant between Century and the UAE and big bank for Century. Crony capitalism at its finest. The big losers as a result of the resulting inflation - all of the non billionaire class.
Fun fact, Itan bombed both the UAE and Bahrain aluminum plants and caused significant damage. Also with the Straight of Hormuz turmoil future sales me be somewhat constrained