For years, Canada looked ready to write a giant cheque to the United States for fighter jets. Now? The conversation is changing. Bigger fleet. More countries involved. More manufacturing at home.
That’s really the heart of the conversation now... what serves Canada best?
Good allies matter, cooperation matters, but at the end of the day Canadian policy should be built around Canadian interests, Canadian jobs, and Canadian resilience…
YES, that is the question. "What should Canada become?"
I remember 50-some years ago, saying to a group of friends at work, that Canada exports the raw materials and imports the finished product, and that is why we cannot get anywhere. If only I was in charge then, Ha Ha.
Better late than never, I guess. It always frustrated me that we didn't make much of
anything. That is a losing strategy, if you want to get anywhere. Especially while letting others take the wheel, while giving them the materials they needed.
As of now, 140 is being discussed as a possibility... not official policy.
The original plan was 88 F-35s.
What seems to be emerging from reports and leaks is a mixed-fleet idea that could push the total number higher if Canada adds a significant Gripen purchase alongside the F-35s.
So at this point, think of 100–140 as “being talked about,” not “approved.”
The real decision still appears to be under review.
With defense spending rising and NATO pressure increasing, though, a larger fleet than originally planned no longer seems off the table.
That makes sense although as I recall it the idea of a mixed plane fleet was apparently opposed by the military when it was first broached after Trump started whacking us. I wonder if that has changed for political reasons. And where are the F35's we are committed to buy? It seems to me that order has been on the books for years and years. And I simply don't understand why it takes so bloody long for military procurement decisions to be made.
The only reason this has not been awarded to Saab isthe renewal of the KUSMA agreement on favorable terms and the end of tariffs. Keeping the 500,000 remaining auto jobs is job #1. In the current tariff regime that isnt happening. So as soon as that final nail gets placed and there is no renewal and KUSMA moves to annual review the auto industry as we know it in Canada is all but done. Then its balls to the wall with a reinvention of a Canadian based maker industrial base. The alliance with the US as a rational trading partner is over and the Saab deal will be one of many maker agreements that will be quickly signed to kick start the reinvention of Canada as a leading global middle power.
Excellent article, Geezer! Yes, a two fighter fleet will work with some challenges to training, dual maintenance streams, etcetera. At least with Saab we have some significant investment in Canada that surpasses the benefits of the few Canadian companies that fabricate F35 components. Which Trump has threatened to cancel.
Go with trusted allies and purchase from the US if there is no product alternative.
Great post Fred! I watched a podcast today & one of the 3 speakers voiced what I have been concerned about, if we, & we MUST, make that USA sale a lot smaller or completely forget it, because we are dealing with an Unhinged dictator who would think nothing about sabotaging any or all of them, so we would spend useless funding, IF software or other important parts were all tampered with. My thoughts.
This is Canada doing what is best for *Canada*, not just the noisy neighbor downstairs
Exactly, Earl.
That’s really the heart of the conversation now... what serves Canada best?
Good allies matter, cooperation matters, but at the end of the day Canadian policy should be built around Canadian interests, Canadian jobs, and Canadian resilience…
not just keeping the noisy neighbour happy.
YES, that is the question. "What should Canada become?"
I remember 50-some years ago, saying to a group of friends at work, that Canada exports the raw materials and imports the finished product, and that is why we cannot get anywhere. If only I was in charge then, Ha Ha.
You may have been 50 years early, Carol-Ann 😄
That’s been one of Canada’s frustrations for generations...
ship out the raw materials, buy back the expensive finished goods.
Maybe the bigger shift happening now is finally asking...
why not build more of the value chain here?
Better late than never.
Better late than never, I guess. It always frustrated me that we didn't make much of
anything. That is a losing strategy, if you want to get anywhere. Especially while letting others take the wheel, while giving them the materials they needed.
Very interesting column. Is it now policy to increase the fighter fleet to 140 or is that just a possibility that people are bandying about?
Good question, Graydon.
As of now, 140 is being discussed as a possibility... not official policy.
The original plan was 88 F-35s.
What seems to be emerging from reports and leaks is a mixed-fleet idea that could push the total number higher if Canada adds a significant Gripen purchase alongside the F-35s.
So at this point, think of 100–140 as “being talked about,” not “approved.”
The real decision still appears to be under review.
With defense spending rising and NATO pressure increasing, though, a larger fleet than originally planned no longer seems off the table.
That makes sense although as I recall it the idea of a mixed plane fleet was apparently opposed by the military when it was first broached after Trump started whacking us. I wonder if that has changed for political reasons. And where are the F35's we are committed to buy? It seems to me that order has been on the books for years and years. And I simply don't understand why it takes so bloody long for military procurement decisions to be made.
Cheers
GS
The only reason this has not been awarded to Saab isthe renewal of the KUSMA agreement on favorable terms and the end of tariffs. Keeping the 500,000 remaining auto jobs is job #1. In the current tariff regime that isnt happening. So as soon as that final nail gets placed and there is no renewal and KUSMA moves to annual review the auto industry as we know it in Canada is all but done. Then its balls to the wall with a reinvention of a Canadian based maker industrial base. The alliance with the US as a rational trading partner is over and the Saab deal will be one of many maker agreements that will be quickly signed to kick start the reinvention of Canada as a leading global middle power.
Larry, I think a lot of this comes down to timing and leverage.
Right now, trade, tariffs, autos, and defense are all tangled together.
If CUSMA turns into annual uncertainty and tariffs become permanent policy tools,
Canada will likely have no choice but to accelerate domestic manufacturing
and diversify partners fast.
Hard to build long-term strategy when the rules keep changing.
Excellent article, Geezer! Yes, a two fighter fleet will work with some challenges to training, dual maintenance streams, etcetera. At least with Saab we have some significant investment in Canada that surpasses the benefits of the few Canadian companies that fabricate F35 components. Which Trump has threatened to cancel.
Go with trusted allies and purchase from the US if there is no product alternative.
Exactly, Scott.
That’s the trade-off, isn’t it?
More complexity in training and maintenance... but far more Canadian benefit in return.
Hard to ignore the value of jobs, manufacturing, and not having all our eggs in one basket… especially after tariff threats and contract uncertainty.
Great post Fred! I watched a podcast today & one of the 3 speakers voiced what I have been concerned about, if we, & we MUST, make that USA sale a lot smaller or completely forget it, because we are dealing with an Unhinged dictator who would think nothing about sabotaging any or all of them, so we would spend useless funding, IF software or other important parts were all tampered with. My thoughts.
Fair concern, Patsy.
I think a lot of Canadians are asking similar questions right now...
not just “What’s the best jet?” but “How much risk comes with dependence?”
If critical software, upgrades, or parts can become political leverage someday, that changes the conversation.
Whatever Canada decides, reliability and sovereignty have to matter as much as capability.
Absolutely Fred! Thank you.