Canada Just Quietly Changed Its Foreign Policy… And Most People Missed It
Carney’s “variable geometry” isn’t word salad... it’s a warning that the old world order is cracking
Let me say this straight…
If you want to understand where Canada is headed…
you can’t just watch Ottawa and Washington anymore.
That’s like trying to understand hockey by staring only at the goalie.
The game is happening everywhere.
January 20th 2026, Mark Carney basically told the world…
We’re done playing by the old rulebook.
Most folks missed it because the phrase sounded like something from a high school math class.
“Variable geometry.”
Cute. Academic. Harmless.
It’s not.
It means this…
Canada is no longer automatically sticking with the same clubs… the UN, NATO, the usual “everyone hold hands” crowd.
Instead?
We’ll team up issue by issue.
Country by country.
Deal by deal.
Like free agents.
Not marriage.
Dating.
If interests line up… we cooperate.
If they don’t… we walk.
That’s a massive shift.
For almost 80 years, Canada has played the “good student” of world politics.
Follow the rules.
Work through institutions.
Talk about values.
Be the polite middle power.
Now Carney’s saying…
Values are nice.
Strength matters more.
That’s new language for us.
Very new.
The old Canada
Historically?
We leaned on “soft power.”
Peacekeeping.
Human rights.
Diplomacy.
Multilateralism.
Basically…
“Let’s all sit down and sort this out.”
It worked when the world was stable.
But the world isn’t stable anymore.
You’ve got…
• the U.S. acting unpredictable
• China building its own systems
• Europe hedging bets
• wars popping up
• supply chains breaking
• trade rules ignored whenever convenient
And the “rules-based order” everyone loves quoting?
Half the players stopped following it years ago.
So Carney’s saying what a lot of leaders are quietly thinking…
Maybe the rulebook isn’t real anymore.
A little history lesson (the short, no-BS version)
Canada used to tie itself tightly to the U.S.
Back in 1938, both countries basically said…
“You protect us, we protect you.”
That security partnership shaped everything for decades.
Fast forward.
Even in 2017, Canada still preached loyalty to the international system.
Stay the course.
Defend the order.
Trust the alliances.
Now?
Different tone.
Carney flat-out said the era of ever-closer integration with the U.S. is over.
Over.
That’s not tweaking policy.
That’s ripping out the wiring.
What “variable geometry” really means
Here’s the plain-English translation…
We don’t automatically join teams anymore.
We build temporary coalitions based on…
• shared interests
• shared values
• specific problems
Energy? One group.
Defense? Another.
Trade? Different partners.
Flexible.
Pragmatic.
Less sentimental.
Think…
Swiss Army knife foreign policy.
Not one big toolbox.
Why I’m writing about other countries now…
And this is the part that matters for us… and for this Substack.
Some readers ask…
“Fred, why are you talking about Europe, China, BRICS, Davos, all this global stuff?”
Because Canada doesn’t live in a snow globe.
If Germany builds battery plants… it affects us.
If China dumps U.S. bonds… it affects us.
If Europe ditches the dollar… it affects us.
If alliances shift… it affects us.
We’re a trading nation.
We sit between giants.
When elephants move, we feel it.
So yeah… we watch the whole board.
Not just our own square.
The uncomfortable truth
Here’s the catch.
The old system isn’t gone.
The UN still exists.
NATO still exists.
All the old alliances still exist.
So now we’ve got two worlds overlapping…
The old order…
and this new flexible, pick-your-partners order.
That’s going to get messy.
Awkward.
Conflicting.
Like renovating your kitchen while you’re still cooking dinner.
But pretending nothing’s changing?
That’s worse.
Canada isn’t withdrawing.
We’re adapting.
Less choir boy.
More realist.
Less “please.”
More “does this serve us?”
Frankly?
About time.
The Recap…
Canada just quietly changed how it deals with the world.
Not through the UN.
Not automatic alliances.
But flexible, issue-by-issue partnerships.
Carney calls it “variable geometry.”
I call it growing up.
The Punchline…
When the rulebook stops protecting you, you stop worshipping the rulebook.
Source credit:
Based on analysis of remarks delivered at the World Economic Forum annual meeting and commentary from a Carleton University political science expert.
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Marco Rubio also talks about the "New World Order" but somehow believes its centre focus is the U.S., and that Europe is their friend but should toughen up and not have any other friends. This is softer than JD Vance's speech but no less logical. This is typical Trumpoopia, with alternating stick and carrot. They're not going away softly into the night, and we will have to reckon with them eventually.
It sounds like a good change, not to become too tied to anyone.
I feel sorry for Carney, but thank God we have him. So much pressure
and madness.