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Brian Scott's avatar

I am totally with you on this. It matters that we can stand independently. And it certainly does not matter who the pundits decide wins. We are fundamentally changing our economy. Much for the better. Getting better “deals” with other countries that also build Canada. That’s what matters now.

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Exactly, Brian.

That’s the part I think gets lost when everything is scored as Canada wins, Trump loses, Carney wins, somebody else loses.

The real scoreboard is what Canada looks like ten years from now.

More customers.

More trade routes.

More Canadian processing.

Better east-west infrastructure.

And deals that don’t just sell Canadian resources, but actually build Canadian capacity while doing it.

If we come out of this mess with a stronger, more independent economy, I couldn’t care less who the pundits say won the week.

That’s the win that matters.

David Clifton's avatar

You are right on the money with every part of this post, Fred! Good job.

For me, the best part is I think this is pretty much exactly where Carney is taking us. So many commentators are saying we need to diversify, find new customers go east, go west, remove provincial barriers…….but just think for one minute, Carney has been started on this journey from day 1. Every trip, every one of the 14 meetings with the premiers, the new docks and terminals (Montreal, Churchill, Mn., Vancouver) the new pipelines, LNG and oil, the new energy hydro and nuclear….just too many to list, but yes, you are right on the money and so is Carney!

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Thanks, David.

That’s exactly what I’m starting to see too.

If you stop looking at each Carney trip, premiers’ meeting, port announcement, pipeline or energy project as a separate news story, a much bigger picture starts appearing.

They’re pieces of the same strategy.

More ways to move Canadian goods.

More customers.

More energy capacity.

Fewer barriers inside Canada.

Less dependence on any one market... especially one that has suddenly decided dependence gives it leverage over us.

And you’ve hit the important part... this didn’t start last week because Trump said something stupid again.

Carney has been working this direction from the beginning.

We may argue about individual projects and certainly shouldn’t give

any government a free pass.

But if the destination is a Canada that can stand on its own feet and still trade with everybody, including the Americans, I’m all for it.

I think we’re watching something bigger than a trade response.

**We’re watching Canada rewire its economy.**

Canadian Otolaryngologist's avatar

Completely agree. Carney has been tireless!

Audrey Cook's avatar

Well said, Fred

Tani F. Cornelius's avatar

Such a healthy way to look at things!

Gordon Bullivant's avatar

Brilliant post, once again! Many thanks!

Cornelia Elisabeth Krom's avatar

Very good article. I like it that Canada is standing up for itself. Most Europeans like Canada too. Whenever possible I buy Canadian and European. Not American. Our European customer protection is better than in most countries and way better than the American one. We don’t want American beef or chicken and many other products as well have been processed chemically. Many people here don’t want that any more.

Another thing, Europe imports a lot of LNG from America. We could buy it from Canada instead. I live in Portugal where many households have only one option for cooking and heating: bottled gas!

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Thank you, Cornelia.

And your comment from Portugal is exactly why I keep coming back to this word... **options.**

Here we are in Canada talking about finding new customers, while Europeans are telling us, “We could be one of them.”

That’s the connection we need to start making.

And it’s already beginning.

Canada now has long-term LNG agreements being developed with European buyers, including Germany.

So this isn’t just some Canadian daydream about diversification anymore.

There are customers on the other side of the Atlantic looking for reliable energy suppliers too.

I especially appreciate hearing your perspective from Portugal because it makes this much less theoretical.

When somebody sitting in Europe tells Canadians, “We could buy your LNG instead,” my old salesman ears perk right up. 😁

That’s what a market looks like.

Canada doesn’t need to stop trading with America.

We need enough customers around the world that no single one of them gets to decide our future.

Thanks for adding the European side of this conversation. 🇨🇦🇪🇺

L M's avatar

If in the 1970s the 🇺🇸/PC/UCP misinformation campaign against an east to west pipeline that Pierre E Trudeau proposed funding through Petro-Canada as a crown corporation... where would we be now?

Instead we sold our oil for decades $0.80/$1 bc the made sure AB remained landlocked & the Liberals were hated for decades

Mulroney signs NAFTA with the restrictions on our own oil

Justin Trudeau gets the restrictions removed & pays for the trans mountain pipeline but AB hates Liberals blah blah blah

The AB provincial wealth fund has been raided for decades by UCP and every year they take more services away. But right now you earn more $$ but for how long?

And the 🇺🇸/UCP is at it AGAIN

So will you fall for it AGAIN?

L M's avatar

If in the 1970s the 🇺🇸/PC/UCP misinformation campaign against an east to west pipeline that Pierre E Trudeau proposed funding through Petro-Canada as a crown corporation didn't work & it had been built... where would we be now?

Instead we sold our oil for decades $0.80/$1 bc they made sure AB remained landlocked & the Liberals were hated for decades

Mulroney signs NAFTA with the restrictions on our own oil

Justin Trudeau gets the restrictions removed & pays for the trans mountain pipeline but AB hates Liberals blah blah blah

The AB provincial wealth fund has been raided for decades by UCP and every year they take more services away. But right now you earn more $$ but for how long?

And the 🇺🇸/UCP is at it AGAIN

So will you fall for it AGAIN?

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

There’s a bigger historical rabbit hole in what you’ve raised here, L M, and I think it’s worth digging into.

The part that interests me most isn’t Liberal versus Conservative...

it’s the cost Canada has paid over decades for having too few ways to move Canadian resources to different Canadian and international markets.

Whatever decisions got us here, we know where we are now...

an enormous resource-producing country that became heavily dependent on one customer and north-south infrastructure.

That’s the mistake I don’t want us repeating.

Trans Mountain gives us another door.

LNG gives us another.

Ports, east-west infrastructure and more overseas customers give us more.

I’m going to do some homework on the history you’ve raised rather than pretend I know every piece of it.

Because the question worth asking is a damned good one...

**If Canada had started building more east-west and overseas options 40 or 50 years ago, how different would our position be today?**

L M's avatar
Aug 30Edited

I understand the liberal vs conservative issue, but we must be aware as we are in the exact same position

A UCP Alberta 🇺🇸 supported Premier and a Liberal federal government with 🇺🇸 misinfo and $$

So its important to see the gaslighting so we dont have a repeat!

Sandi J Horton's avatar

It's a fact that Canada has talked about diversification for many years. Just about as long as I can remember. Always it seemed that it either cost too much money; as in not enough help through the Federal government or other investors. I am very happy to see our government willing to go the extra mile with all these investments in Canada. I hope it will continue and men and women of Canada will see good jobs and opportunity in our new future. Our dependance on the US must end quickly!

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Exactly, Sandi.

We’ve talked about diversification forever.

The difference now, I hope, is that we’re finally treating the infrastructure needed to make it happen as an investment instead of just a cost.

Because saying “find new customers” is easy.

You need the ports, pipelines, rail capacity, electricity, processing plants and terminals to actually reach those customers.

And somebody has to be willing to put serious money behind building them.

The part you mentioned about jobs is especially important to me.

I don’t want Canada simply shipping more raw resources out another door.

I want more of the processing, manufacturing, construction and value-added work happening here...

with Canadian men and women getting the jobs that come with it.

And I’d put one small wrinkle on ending our dependence on the U.S. “quickly.”

Let’s move urgently, absolutely.

But let’s build it properly so it lasts.

**The goal isn’t to stop needing America tomorrow.

It’s to make sure Canada never again needs any one customer badly enough that they can push us around.**

Bev's avatar

90% agree but your statement about wanting us to have another 100 years close up with the US? Perhaps it s just frustration talking but I m getting more and more into a very different world coming up. I used to read a lot of speculative fiction,not so much in the past couple of decades, but I m very drawn to a vision of the Great White North dominating the rest of this century. Not just us but all the Norths. Very different power structures emerging because they have to.

The planet is already falling prey to destructive forces and we ve barely got into it. Glaciers falling, earthquakes and volcanoes tearing out great chunks of populated centres, fires taking out massive swathes of surface while smoke extends the range of destruction, deadly diseases mounting even while primitive brains dictate that vaccines must be stopped because they “cause” deaths. Countries near the equator are predicted to be the most hard hit, and many powers are already grabbing what they can and of course we re gearing up for deterrence at least to protect our own. I m really glad to be in the North now and if I were young would probably be staking out Labrador. Or Churchill. Learning a Scandinavian language.

I don t have specific apocalyptic visions, but it sure looks like the guys to the south are feeding themselves into the plantary woodchipper fast as they can while we still rail on about their vast sacred powers. Are they still there? what does it mean that the US is almost out of weapons because Iran? I m pretty sure they have and can make more and yet are they as powerful as they used to be? Are they reduced to threatening with planetary reducing ones because it s all they have and know now? what s to stop them from being used?

No I personally don t want any more truck with them. We had our day and it was fine. They dont want to be our boyfriend any more and it s time we moved on.

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Bev, I think your boyfriend analogy may be the best way to put it. 😁

Where I differ slightly is that I don’t think we need to swear off the old boyfriend forever.

I just don’t ever want Canada moving back into his apartment.

If America eventually becomes a stable, trustworthy neighbour again, I’ll happily sell them oil, electricity, lumber, potash and whatever else they want to buy.

Business is business.

But the days of building Canada around the assumption that the United States will always be our protector, our biggest customer and our dependable best friend?

I think those days should be finished.

And your bigger point about the North interests me.

Canada has spent most of its history looking south because that’s where the population, money and markets were.

But the Arctic, our northern resources, northern shipping, security, energy and our relationships with other northern countries are becoming much more important.

Nobody knows exactly what the world will look like 25 or 50 years from now.

I certainly don't.

But I know what I want Canada to look like in it...

Strong enough to stand alone.

Connected enough to trade everywhere.

Friendly with countries that want to be friendly with us.

And dependent on none of them.

So maybe we agree more than your 90% suggests. 😁

Bev's avatar

I also agree we re traders not belligerants and that s a pretty good model to expand but things might happen sooner than 25 years out. why did the CIA go to Russia? how real are the threats to the UK and Poland? It seems insane to think of war coming up fast but there are non friendly forces out there gathering and they might not want to wait for us to arm up to grab our stuff. Well,try. I know nothing about this stuff but things are happening we might need to brace for.

I am very glad we re clicking with the EU and others, they re better prepared and might even remember that we came over to save their bacon 90 years ago, return the favour.

Bev's avatar

Sure we can smile and sell him our old stuff. But I d never trust him to babysit the dog again. He ll be sniffing around for advantages, see who we re talking to and what he can learn to undercut us. It s always all about him.

I m pretty sure someone has visions of the future and the North, maybe there are even nice govenrment publications with options tucked inside that noone outside the Communications office has ever even read. I ve produced a few of those in my day. Dressed down in dull bureaucratese but if properly read, give the logic behind the commitment of major resources to the ice breakers and submarines, new ports and shifted priorities that will indicate what the powers that be have in mind. Most people arent too interested in long term visions, especially when it involves choosing where to locate stations and how to get supplies there. But they guide the shape our new world will take.

I was on the ground floor, in Grade 3, of the building of Base Gagetown in New Brunswick, circa 1954-55, when my teacher single mother got a chance to teach there before any schools were even open. Paid the same as a man, imagine that! New building thrown up on grounds cleared by Agent Orange that gave her non Hodgkins Lymphoma with which she eventually died just before we could find proof she was there( Harper s short cheap offer of compensation stalled and expired while government records were all gone).

I watched the miracle of a huge community go up at movie speed out of old woods that became the face of Canada s military on the east coast although our US neighbours tested the new weapons so useful in Vietnam on us first. Government plans are real to me.

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Bev, I think your two comments come together in one place...

**countries have to plan for the world that might be coming, not just the world sitting in front of them today.**

I’m not knowledgeable enough about the CIA/Russia reports or the threats you're mentioning to speculate about where those lead.

But I absolutely agree that Canada can't assume we've got 25 comfortable years to figure everything out.

That's another reason our growing relationships with Europe and other reliable partners matter to me.

We're traders, not belligerents, as you said... but being peaceful doesn't mean being unprepared.

And your second comment really got me thinking.

You're right that somewhere inside government there are probably some deadly dull reports with titles nobody would voluntarily read after dinner. 😁

But buried inside them are the assumptions driving icebreakers, submarines, Arctic ports, northern infrastructure, military bases and billions of dollars in spending.

Those decisions tell us something.

Governments don't order fleets of icebreakers because somebody thought they'd look nice parked in Halifax.

Your experience watching Gagetown being built gives you a perspective most of us don't have.

You've actually watched a major government plan turn from paper into roads, buildings and an entire community.

And I'm sorry about what happened to your mother.

That makes this history very personal for you.

You've also sent me down another rabbit hole.

Instead of guessing what Canada's leaders think the North will look like in 20 or 30 years, maybe I should go find those boring government documents and see what they're actually planning for.

Because you're right about something important...

**Today's boring planning documents can become tomorrow's Canada.** 🇨🇦

Bev's avatar

you re making me feel like my boring life had and maybe still has some meaning, Fred. Thank you from my heart. I cared about what we were doing and gave it my all, as did so many maligned colleagues.

As for news, I still do a morning world scan, as many english language papers etc as I can in about 3 hours. Can t recall source but definitely some fussing over Russian threats to UK mounting.Too much fawning coverage of US dramas. Inadequate thinking and coverage of Canada. Bothsidesing predators as if reasonable. ugh! How I miss the old CBC and G&M!

Thanks about my mother. It was really hard to prove her many years teaching there in a short time. Noone kept any documents or wouldnt admit. She had a volunteer advisor who up and died of a heart attack. I came in late and tried to locate people still alive who knew her but no luck in the couple months I had. Just read that my darling Grade 6 teacher only died last week! He d have been in his 70s then but we never thought of him. Kept his marbles too and I m certain he d have spoken up.

As for those boring government documents, so many had to be on line in my day but I don t know now. But maybe. Budgets, reviews and annual reports compared tell stories too.Hope you find some and clarify them for us.

Patsy Rideout's avatar

Another great issue Fred! Keep pumping them out, it all makes great sense :)

DenRaym's avatar

“Another Canadian industry capable of processing our own resources instead of shipping everything somewhere else to have the value added there.” This is what has always irritated me…sending out our raw resources instead of transforming here. We should be making added value with our resources here instead of shipping it out. We should charge export tax/royalties on anything shipped out raw. Batteries for EV’s should be made here, battery packs for accumulating solar energy, etc etc.

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

DenRaym, this is one of the parts I think Canada really needs to get right.

Finding another country to buy our raw resources is diversification.

**Turning those resources into higher-value products here in Canada is nation-building.**

If we've got the minerals needed for batteries, I'd much rather see Canadian workers involved in the processing, components, battery manufacturing and eventually recycling than simply watch another ship full of raw material disappear over the horizon.

And interestingly, that's increasingly what Canada's critical-minerals strategy is actually trying to do...

build the whole chain from mine to manufacturing instead of digging it up here, processing it somewhere else and buying it back at a much higher price.

I'd want to look more carefully at your export-tax idea before jumping aboard because there can be unintended consequences with those things.

But the principle behind what you're saying?

I'm completely aboard.

Canada shouldn't just ask...

**“Who else can we sell our resources to?”**

We should also ask...

**“How much more of their value can we keep in Canada before we sell them?”**

That's where the jobs, technology, expertise and long-term wealth are.

Kathleen's avatar

"Another Canadian industry capable of processing our own resources instead of shipping everything somewhere else to have the value added there." This Fred, is where a very prosperous future for Canada lies. Production - of many, many things the market needs. We have the raw materials, we have the talent, we have the energy!

Dave Legant66 Glover's avatar

I had no Idea Trump removed the reciprocal energy guarantees, I'd say that alone is a huge win for Canada.

Another great Piece thanks again for sharing.

As always Stay Strong, we got this.