Great post Fred! Doesn't orange man realize it is useless to offer us used bubblegum? We are moving to cleaner countries, friendlier people, smiling, charming negotiations :)
You know we have the Greer/Trump really worried if they use the expression "you don't have the cards" . . . . ;-)
Though "we don't need anything from you" is a close second. The aluminum is a critical example -- everybody needs it right now (if doing most military or high-tech manufacturing). Almost all Canadian aluminum (used to) goes States-side. Now, at least half of it goes to Europe (and as you noted, the stuff that is sold to USA is now 25% more expensive.
We have survived the initial tariff threats because of the cover of CUSMA. It is likely that the future tariff regime will be designed to slice through CUSMA protections and put a minimum tariff on all trade including trade currently covered CUSMA. The goal is the eviceration of the Canadian industrial base as a prelude to turning Canada into a vasal state or that will lead to its assimilation. A 10% tariff dooms the Canadian auto industry as it is currently configured and will create significant job losses in the high hundreds of thousands in a couple years or less. Other sectors will suffer loses as profitability is lost due to tariffs that the US purchasers will have the Canadian sellers absorb as they do in the lumber sector. This is the real threat that Carney is trying to avoid. So instead of rejoicing over our recent resource sector wins we need to prepare for a world where we no longer have full CUSMA protections and industrial integration with the US is a massive threat to our future. This scenario may not happen, CUSMA may be continued, Trump may not be able to effect his tariff strategy before losing the congess in the mid terms or any number of things may allow for the continuation of CUSMA without tariff changes to CUSMA qualifying trade. But the threat of 10% minimum baseline tariffs accross the board is real and will be far more disaterous than any tariff action taken to date. Lets hope Carney and the Canadian negotiators are successful in their negotiations. As more serious trade difficulties are one executive order or one person's decision to withdraw from CUSMA away from a new reality where our dependency on US trade will be more fully exposed. We will know soon enough.
Great post Fred! Doesn't orange man realize it is useless to offer us used bubblegum? We are moving to cleaner countries, friendlier people, smiling, charming negotiations :)
You know we have the Greer/Trump really worried if they use the expression "you don't have the cards" . . . . ;-)
Though "we don't need anything from you" is a close second. The aluminum is a critical example -- everybody needs it right now (if doing most military or high-tech manufacturing). Almost all Canadian aluminum (used to) goes States-side. Now, at least half of it goes to Europe (and as you noted, the stuff that is sold to USA is now 25% more expensive.
We have survived the initial tariff threats because of the cover of CUSMA. It is likely that the future tariff regime will be designed to slice through CUSMA protections and put a minimum tariff on all trade including trade currently covered CUSMA. The goal is the eviceration of the Canadian industrial base as a prelude to turning Canada into a vasal state or that will lead to its assimilation. A 10% tariff dooms the Canadian auto industry as it is currently configured and will create significant job losses in the high hundreds of thousands in a couple years or less. Other sectors will suffer loses as profitability is lost due to tariffs that the US purchasers will have the Canadian sellers absorb as they do in the lumber sector. This is the real threat that Carney is trying to avoid. So instead of rejoicing over our recent resource sector wins we need to prepare for a world where we no longer have full CUSMA protections and industrial integration with the US is a massive threat to our future. This scenario may not happen, CUSMA may be continued, Trump may not be able to effect his tariff strategy before losing the congess in the mid terms or any number of things may allow for the continuation of CUSMA without tariff changes to CUSMA qualifying trade. But the threat of 10% minimum baseline tariffs accross the board is real and will be far more disaterous than any tariff action taken to date. Lets hope Carney and the Canadian negotiators are successful in their negotiations. As more serious trade difficulties are one executive order or one person's decision to withdraw from CUSMA away from a new reality where our dependency on US trade will be more fully exposed. We will know soon enough.