Weak GDP, rising inflation, political chaos, and market nerves are colliding at the same time. That combination matters far beyond the United States... including for Canada.
I believe there is an error in your assessment of the stats. According to Trump, slower growth, rising inflation, lower consumer spending and lower savings rates = US winning more than ever! Lol.
When interest rates stay high, the cost of the national debt stays high. when that national debt is 120% of GDP and GDP is decreasing, the percent is increasing. When foreign nationals are selling off bonds, The U.S. is in a cash crunch. They need to issue new bonds at higher rates, which increases liability. This means the debt-equity ratio is increasing. See where I'm going? As I've mentioned before, the U.S. needs tariffs to help pay down the debt. A lot of the debt came from funneling tax credits to billionaires. The billionaires will own the assets while the country owes the debt. This is somewhat of a Faustian bargain.
Thumper may not understand that. Perhaps 10% of all imports will pay the interest? While the real purpose of tariffs may be to onshore industry, one wonders why it’s believed that anyone outside of the U.S. would buy product. Also the cost of onshoring is prohibitive. I still see a downward economic spiral.
Excellent article again. The one thing I don't remember from way back when like before I was born, was how it was determined by the world that we were going to use the US dollar as the currency for the world.
Secondly, how did it evolve that the US, who did not step up and enter into World War II until after Japan bombed them, became the B- all and and end-all of the say on what the world is doing. I realize that Trump has taken it to an extreme, but in my memory, it seems that every American president all of a sudden determines if they are going to war against a country or another country can't do something.
Who do you think started this and somewhat importantly was it the GOP or the Democrats that was the main force behind it?
That these questions are not directly related to the article, but they are related to how rump and his party thinks they are in charge of the world. So in their view, everybody is supposed to jump to their bidding, and now that we as Canadians and other countries are not doing that Grump is trying to punish everyone with these tariffs.
After WWII the U.S. was the only major economy left standing, so the world anchored the financial system to the U.S. dollar. That gave them enormous influence.
And it wasn’t GOP vs Democrats... both parties built and maintained U.S. global leadership for 70+ years.
What’s changing now is tone and tactics. Tariffs on allies and “America first” pressure are pushing other countries (including Canada) to diversify.
So yes... you’re reading the situation pretty accurately.
Thank you Fred. It makes complete sense - I should have figured this out in my own. My family talked about restrictions during the war, as farm families what they gave up so they could provide for the troops, for example.
Canada was still in its infancy then, and part of the UK.
A year ago we sold most of our savings and paid off our mortgage. We do not own any US investments. We have gone full tilt into Elbows Up and buy very little of US products. I think we made a good decision!
The so called consumer market illusion that the orange 🍊 potato is trying to pimp out to the world via tariffs lives paycheque to paycheque and is one medical disaster away from becoming bankrupt. As more countries diversify away from 🇺🇸 the worst it will get.
🇨🇦💙 Charles Schwab research cited by a homelessness organization, estimated that 59% of Americans are one paycheck away from being homeless. The US economy will drop like a stone on a whiff of a rumour. Then the USA will become a 3rd world country overnight.
Good points. Trump faces micro and macro economic nightmares. Homelessness will be the canary in the coal mine.
I’ve been watching BRIC countries reduce US‑Treasury holdings - de-dollarizing. BRIC’s full members and partners are 56% of the global population today. The stock market also terrifies me. Warren Buffett says the stock market is a casino, short‑term speculation/gambling not investing. My third nightmare? Gallium - a rare earth mineral China controls 99% of the world’s production. Used in semiconductors for advanced radar, missile‑defense systems, satellite communications, and high‑frequency electronics in all U.S. military platforms. Xi can cripple the US military, destroy SWIFT and crash the NYSE tomorrow.
As an old committee of Journalism, I always went looking for how any big national policy or financial development showed up in a person's own neighbourhood snd driveway.
And the indicators are not good. A record number of car and truck loans have gone into default, snd the repo company's tow tucks are on the way. (Most families consider a vehicle to be essential equipment if you work and have kids).
And moving vans may start to get busy, too. Mortgage defaults are distinctly up as well.
This is the US house of economic cards beginning to crumble, in work-for-a-living USA.
Thank you, you always make "sense" out of "nonsense" :)
I believe there is an error in your assessment of the stats. According to Trump, slower growth, rising inflation, lower consumer spending and lower savings rates = US winning more than ever! Lol.
When reality and narrative collide, narrative usually tweets first.
When interest rates stay high, the cost of the national debt stays high. when that national debt is 120% of GDP and GDP is decreasing, the percent is increasing. When foreign nationals are selling off bonds, The U.S. is in a cash crunch. They need to issue new bonds at higher rates, which increases liability. This means the debt-equity ratio is increasing. See where I'm going? As I've mentioned before, the U.S. needs tariffs to help pay down the debt. A lot of the debt came from funneling tax credits to billionaires. The billionaires will own the assets while the country owes the debt. This is somewhat of a Faustian bargain.
Tariffs won’t pay down a multi-trillion debt.
That math doesn’t exist.
Thumper may not understand that. Perhaps 10% of all imports will pay the interest? While the real purpose of tariffs may be to onshore industry, one wonders why it’s believed that anyone outside of the U.S. would buy product. Also the cost of onshoring is prohibitive. I still see a downward economic spiral.
Excellent article again. The one thing I don't remember from way back when like before I was born, was how it was determined by the world that we were going to use the US dollar as the currency for the world.
Secondly, how did it evolve that the US, who did not step up and enter into World War II until after Japan bombed them, became the B- all and and end-all of the say on what the world is doing. I realize that Trump has taken it to an extreme, but in my memory, it seems that every American president all of a sudden determines if they are going to war against a country or another country can't do something.
Who do you think started this and somewhat importantly was it the GOP or the Democrats that was the main force behind it?
That these questions are not directly related to the article, but they are related to how rump and his party thinks they are in charge of the world. So in their view, everybody is supposed to jump to their bidding, and now that we as Canadians and other countries are not doing that Grump is trying to punish everyone with these tariffs.
Do I have this right?
After WWII the U.S. was the only major economy left standing, so the world anchored the financial system to the U.S. dollar. That gave them enormous influence.
And it wasn’t GOP vs Democrats... both parties built and maintained U.S. global leadership for 70+ years.
What’s changing now is tone and tactics. Tariffs on allies and “America first” pressure are pushing other countries (including Canada) to diversify.
So yes... you’re reading the situation pretty accurately.
Thank you Fred. It makes complete sense - I should have figured this out in my own. My family talked about restrictions during the war, as farm families what they gave up so they could provide for the troops, for example.
Canada was still in its infancy then, and part of the UK.
It's all piece of our beautiful country 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦
A year ago we sold most of our savings and paid off our mortgage. We do not own any US investments. We have gone full tilt into Elbows Up and buy very little of US products. I think we made a good decision!
No mortgage. Lower stress. Sleeping well at night.
Hard to call that a bad decision.
The so called consumer market illusion that the orange 🍊 potato is trying to pimp out to the world via tariffs lives paycheque to paycheque and is one medical disaster away from becoming bankrupt. As more countries diversify away from 🇺🇸 the worst it will get.
Tariffs don’t create consumer strength... they often raise costs internally.
But the U.S. consumer base remains enormous and influential globally.
The bigger story is global rebalancing, not sudden decline.
Always good Fred! TKX
🇨🇦💙 Charles Schwab research cited by a homelessness organization, estimated that 59% of Americans are one paycheck away from being homeless. The US economy will drop like a stone on a whiff of a rumour. Then the USA will become a 3rd world country overnight.
[pathwaystohousingpa]
Household financial stress in the U.S. is significant Roxy, especially with debt levels and housing costs.
But the U.S. economy is also very large and diversified, so collapse “overnight” is unlikely.
Both things can be true at the same time.
Good points. Trump faces micro and macro economic nightmares. Homelessness will be the canary in the coal mine.
I’ve been watching BRIC countries reduce US‑Treasury holdings - de-dollarizing. BRIC’s full members and partners are 56% of the global population today. The stock market also terrifies me. Warren Buffett says the stock market is a casino, short‑term speculation/gambling not investing. My third nightmare? Gallium - a rare earth mineral China controls 99% of the world’s production. Used in semiconductors for advanced radar, missile‑defense systems, satellite communications, and high‑frequency electronics in all U.S. military platforms. Xi can cripple the US military, destroy SWIFT and crash the NYSE tomorrow.
As an old committee of Journalism, I always went looking for how any big national policy or financial development showed up in a person's own neighbourhood snd driveway.
And the indicators are not good. A record number of car and truck loans have gone into default, snd the repo company's tow tucks are on the way. (Most families consider a vehicle to be essential equipment if you work and have kids).
And moving vans may start to get busy, too. Mortgage defaults are distinctly up as well.
This is the US house of economic cards beginning to crumble, in work-for-a-living USA.
https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2025/11/14/mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in-the-third-quarter-of-2025
tradingeconomics.com/united-states/car-loan-delinquency