26 Comments
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Penny Frost's avatar

Thank you Fred. As usual beautifully expressed. The UK and Europe are quietly building something that is worth keeping. TRUST. I am one of those that think Brexit was a bad idea, and Following what Mark Carney is doing, I believe our future belongs within this group of ‘middle powers’ that includes Canada and Europe and hopefully the rest of the Commonwealth. Not because I dislike America, but because , as is said , they cannot be trusted with the present administration. Hopefully that may change after the mid terms ( but to be honest I am not holding my breath! If he can find a way to ‘fix’ them he will) .

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Penny, I think you nailed the heart of it... trust.

This isn’t really about disliking America... it’s about predictability and stability.

Countries don’t stop being friends overnight, but they do start building alternatives when confidence starts slipping.

And yes, I think Mark Carney sees the writing on the wall too.

Canada working more closely with Europe and other middle powers may end up being one of the smartest long-term moves we make.

L M's avatar

Even when Trump is gone who knows when the next one shows up?

After 2016 we thought ok that wont happen again & here we are!

As a Canadian I see little evidence that we are not back here in 10 yrs!

Until 🇺🇸 gets control of their institutions, gets money out of politics and grows out of its racism & bigotry, not to mention reeducates its population based on science not religion, nothing truly will change!

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

I understand why many Canadians feel that way, LM.

I think what changed for a lot of people wasn’t just one presidency... it was realizing how quickly institutions can be tested and how hard trust is to rebuild once shaken.

That said, I still try to separate the American people from the political system.

There are millions of Americans actively pushing for change, accountability, and a healthier democracy... even when the road looks rough.

From Canada’s perspective, I suspect the lesson is simple... be a good neighbour, but don’t build your whole future around assumptions.

Diversify, strengthen our own resilience, and hope for the best while planning for the unexpected.

djw's avatar

Yeah, I live in the US, and I think you're spot on.

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

I appreciate hearing that from someone living it, djw.

From the outside looking in, Canadians can sometimes only judge by headlines and policy swings.

Hearing “you’re spot on” from somebody inside the U.S. carries weight.

I think what worries a lot of people isn’t America itself... it’s uncertainty.

Friends and allies can handle disagreements.

What’s harder is not knowing what version of policy shows up next year.

Wishing you good people around you and steady ground ahead.

L M's avatar

Actually I think as Canadians we get the unvarnished and real view.

The fact that 70M ppl voted for Trump after the coup, the corruption & the death and lies he inflicted the first time says it all.

The majority of the American ppl have been brainwashed for decades with propaganda, so has much of the world.

The usa is more like russia than ppl care to admit!

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

LM, I hear the frustration in that.

I think many Canadians share the concern that this feels bigger than one politician...

that it raises questions about institutions, polarization, media ecosystems, and what happens when trust in shared facts starts to break down.

That said, I try to be careful about painting 340+ million people with one brush.

America is a huge, complicated place with people pulling in very different directions, and there are many Americans deeply worried about the same issues you’re raising.

From Canada’s point of view, I think the practical lesson is this...

friendship matters, but resilience matters too.

We should hope for a stable, healthy America...

while also making sure Canada is never overly dependent on any one country or political cycle again.

Penny Frost's avatar

As you may have guessed, I have a great admiration for your Prime Minister. He is a very intelligent man and certainly knows exactly what he is doing. Unfortunately although Keir Starmer is doing the right things, he has no’ charisma’ and has not managed to engage the public. This is going to be his undoing, I only hope Andy Burnham has that spark which will engage the British public. Reform and Restore are owned by billionaires and will set the common man’s rights back 80 years .

Grant Rowson's avatar

. . . and of course, LaFarge had an instrumental hand with Brexit (and buggered off the second it became a "leave", rather than stay to try and be responsible for it). So that's something I hope people are holding his feet against in all of the rhetoric there.

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Grant, that’s an important piece of the story that often gets forgotten.

Nigel Farage was certainly one of the loudest and most influential public faces of Brexit, and I think a lot of people in the UK are now revisiting those years with tougher questions about promises made versus outcomes delivered.

Fair or not, when a major political project has long-term consequences, people tend to revisit who championed it and ask... “Did this turn out the way we were told?”

And judging by current polling and the growing talk of closer UK–EU cooperation again, that debate looks far from over.

Deirdre Mooney's avatar

Super analysis as always

I look forward to reading your work.

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Thank you, Deirdre... I genuinely appreciate that.

I try to cut through the noise and make sense of what’s really changing underneath the headlines.

Glad you’re along for the ride.🙂

Leslie's avatar

Another great analysis.

Laura LaValley's avatar

Trust is the one singular, currency that once spent is nearly impossible to ever earn back.

The problem with the USA is not just that the trumpanzee can't be trusted, our entire governmental structure - all three branches - are tainted with the putrid smell of rats that cannot, and should never, be trusted.

Sweeping regime change is mandatory to have any chance at being trusted again. Even then, bullet-proof new laws MUST be enacted to prevent this current s.s. in a dumpster fire from ever happening again.

A very sad American here. But still fighting the pestilence of fascism.

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Laura, first... thank you for sticking in the fight.

I know this can’t be easy to watch from inside the house.

I think you touched on something bigger than politics here... trust takes years to build and minutes to burn down.

And once allies, markets, and ordinary people start questioning reliability, rebuilding confidence becomes a long road.

I also suspect many Canadians understand this isn’t “Americans” we’re reacting to... it’s uncertainty in leadership and institutions.

There are a lot of thoughtful, decent Americans wrestling with exactly what you described.

Wishing you strength from north of the border. 🇨🇦❤️🇺🇸

Grant Rowson's avatar

To their credit, MOST of the Judicial Branch is trying to do their job -- it only falls apart when a case gets accepted by SCOTUS (where only 3 people seem to be doing their job, at least consistently. sometimes 2 of the others).

But the first two branches . . . . sigh.

Laura LaValley's avatar

You are exactly right and I appreciate that you wrote that. Thank goodness we have most federal and appellate judges who adhere to the Constitution. They've saved our bacon! A huge call out to those judges who've stopped a great deal of the insanity.

The DOJ and Supreme Court majority are 47's personal lawfirm.

Grant Rowson's avatar

Fred, adding to your "league of diversifying nations", Korea, Australia, Japan, and others in the ASEAN/CTTP (hmm, I've got that last acronym wrong) are just as eager to be diversifying as well -- not only do they see it a hedge to American influence, but also China. Witness Korea's eagerness with our submarine tender. And they've started to supply NATO countries with ammunition and equipment -- much with, metaphorically, German precision (with delivery and quality). Even the Germans are noticing (hence their bids for our subs, too!). This isn't just Korean trying to grab contracts like good little capitalists. They want the linkages to other countries!

Like NATO, Korea (and Japan) also depend upon USA as deterrent to China and North Korea -- and could just as easily see those resources "redeployed" on a political whim (hmm, that kind-of happened with the Iran War - both in terms of air power (USS Abe Lincoln is supposed to be in Sea of Japan, etc., not in Persian Gulf area, leaving only one carrier (just coming out of drydock in Japan) to "project power"), marines (the troop ships came from Okinawa, and were based there as ground force deterrent), and missile defense systems (various Patriot and THAAD systems were redeployed).

So everybody is very eager to pursue non-American (non-Chinese, too, or at least cautiously with them) trade.

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Grant, excellent point... and I think this is exactly the bigger picture many people miss.

It’s not just Canada and Europe diversifying.

Countries across the Indo-Pacific are doing the same thing...

South Korea, Japan, Australia, and members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (you were close 😄).

What makes this interesting is that many of these countries are hedging both ways... reducing overdependence on the U.S.

and being cautious about becoming too dependent on China.

Your point about South Korea is especially important.

South Korea isn’t just chasing contracts for the sake of business.

Defence partnerships create political relationships, supply chains, interoperability, and long-term strategic ties.

Same logic behind their NATO equipment sales.

And yes... the redeployment issue matters.

If countries watch military assets shift unexpectedly due to events elsewhere, they naturally start asking... “What happens if we’re suddenly not the priority?”

That doesn’t mean abandoning alliances.

It means building redundancy.

In plain English...

Nobody wants all their eggs in one basket anymore... especially if somebody else controls the basket.🌍

Patsy Rideout's avatar

Great post Fred! Everything narrowed down into one compact file :) I personally think the whitehouse has turned into a dumpster & every crook on earth is cozying up for a share, DS in Alberta for instance, her husband & some bandit followers + PP runs back & forth looking for a share as well haha. ALSO, Doug Ford went there under the guise of "helping" with tarrifs, now it seems he might be simply following the same playbook.....hide the phone files, don't report how our greenspaces got tossed to rich players. Wonder if PP backed all the cesspool politics?

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Haha Patsy… you definitely didn’t sugarcoat that 😄

I think what a lot of Canadians are feeling right now is a growing skepticism toward all political power, regardless of stripe.

People are paying closer attention to who benefits, who gets access, and whether decisions are being made for ordinary citizens or well-connected insiders.

That said, I try to stay focused on patterns and policies more than personalities... who gains, who loses, and what the long-term consequences are for Canada.

Keeps me out of the weeds… most days 😏

Patsy Rideout's avatar

Hahaha sugar coating not needed Fred LOL Mom & my grandparents (her parents) used to tell us this little rhyme & I have lived by it: Speak the truth & speak it ever, cost you what it will, he who hides the wrong he's done, does the wrong thing still. I lived my entire life on that little rhyme. When people want the truth, they come to me ... you sure you want me to tell you? Most people were not happy with the truth, but, I gave it just the same haha.

Yangbo Du's avatar

Minor correction: You did mean Eurozone when mentioning Croatia and Bulgaria joined the EU in 2023 in 2026 respectively? Bulgaria and Croatia joined the EU in 2004 and 2013, respectively.

Fred Ferguson (GeezerWise)'s avatar

Good catch, Yangbo... and thank you for keeping me honest. You’re absolutely right.

I mixed up EU membership with Eurozone membership.

European Union membership...

Croatia joined in 2013

Bulgaria joined in 2007 (not 2004... that was a larger EU expansion round)

What I should have said was...

Croatia adopted the euro in 2023, and Bulgaria is set to join the Eurozone in 2026.

That distinction matters, and I appreciate the correction. 👍

Yangbo Du's avatar

You’re welcome, Fred. Bulgaria already fully adopted the euro; the lev is no longer legal tender there as of February.