Very scary times, indeed. If US follows Trump and attacks Iran’s power grid facilities and then Iran retaliates and bombs more of Gulf countries’ energy assets, then the world could be facing a prolonged energy crisis. The elevated energy prices and also restriction of fertilizer shipments from the Gulf region will more than likely lead to an extended worldwide recession. Canada can benefit somewhat from higher energy related revenues but the pain felt in the general economy will be immense. Not sure where this is all heading but it certainly isn’t anywhere good.
While your column makes it sound like this puts Canada in a good position, the reality is that it is only the American run Canadian companies that produce LNG and the provincial governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan who will make out like bandits. It's us poor work-a-day Canadians who will be paying the higher prices for natural gas to heat our houses and for gasoline to drive our cars.
Remember Justin Trudeau insisting in 2022 there was no business case for LNG exports from the East Coast when Germany came asking?
He was a school teacher who really had no interest in economics, let alone understand it. If Canada had moved ahead in mid 2022 to supply LNG to the EU, just what would our economic prospects look like now?
And soon oil will be traded in local currencies, Euros or Yuan, not US dollars. The US dollar will cease to be the world's reserve currency. This will put further economic stress on the US economy, resulting in less money to service the national debt, thereby increasing the need to raise interest rates, so as not to default on the national debt repayments and be downgraded to a Bb debtor by Moody's.
And while Trump is president, I do not believe there is the collective will of the European & Nordic nations, China, Japan and other Asian and middle east countries, to stop the financial demise of America. The middle powers, are now ring fencing their own economies and forming their own military alliances, while excluding America.
But 77 million Americans voted for this idiot, so they will be reaping what they have sown.
I hope it turns out exactly as you have suggested Fred! In the meantime, I feel so so for our American neighbours :( Let's hope the orange ball doesn't send random bombs in our direction because he is capable of pretty much ANYTHING!
Excellent analysis — GO canada 🇨🇦 that Pedo Prez started his fascist fucks on. Your cunstitution needs a massive do over, allowing Nazism to take over like it has so quick.
Fred, I'm not sure anybody wins. Canada may be in a better place to sell oil and gas but we are limited by our capacity to transport our oil and gas and frankly, even extracting much more oil in the short term may not be possible. Again we will ending up selling that energy to the US who will be the ones making a big profit they don’t deserve.
Really, if there is an oil boom in Canada, the oil sector may be thriving, oil/energy companies will generate higher profits, governments may bring a bit more money to the treasury but it is not the Canadian public in general that will pay more for everything from higher interest rates, to gasoline to food that will benefit from the manna. The boom in the energy sector will not be enough to sustain the Canadian economy overall. The economy may actually shrink and that would cost governments by reducing revenues, increasing expenditures for employment insurance and other social programs. It may also impact our ability to fund the infrastructure and military projects we are planning. We will see our deficit increase and the cost to service the debt will also increase significantly. Canada may have better margins but the impact could be severe.
Europe and Asia may also have to ration oil, gas and electricity for many months to stretch the available energy supply available to them. The price of energy may continue to climb and go through the roof, this could lead to a worldwide recession.
I guess I'm not as optimistic as you are but time will tell.
Very scary times, indeed. If US follows Trump and attacks Iran’s power grid facilities and then Iran retaliates and bombs more of Gulf countries’ energy assets, then the world could be facing a prolonged energy crisis. The elevated energy prices and also restriction of fertilizer shipments from the Gulf region will more than likely lead to an extended worldwide recession. Canada can benefit somewhat from higher energy related revenues but the pain felt in the general economy will be immense. Not sure where this is all heading but it certainly isn’t anywhere good.
While your column makes it sound like this puts Canada in a good position, the reality is that it is only the American run Canadian companies that produce LNG and the provincial governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan who will make out like bandits. It's us poor work-a-day Canadians who will be paying the higher prices for natural gas to heat our houses and for gasoline to drive our cars.
Saskatchewan is going to have to ramp up its potash and urea production. Get both to tidewater faster somehow.
https://leaderpost.com/business/saskatchewan-mineral-company-sees-future-in-premium-potash-fertilizer
Thank goodness Carney is in the seat.
Remember Justin Trudeau insisting in 2022 there was no business case for LNG exports from the East Coast when Germany came asking?
He was a school teacher who really had no interest in economics, let alone understand it. If Canada had moved ahead in mid 2022 to supply LNG to the EU, just what would our economic prospects look like now?
And soon oil will be traded in local currencies, Euros or Yuan, not US dollars. The US dollar will cease to be the world's reserve currency. This will put further economic stress on the US economy, resulting in less money to service the national debt, thereby increasing the need to raise interest rates, so as not to default on the national debt repayments and be downgraded to a Bb debtor by Moody's.
And while Trump is president, I do not believe there is the collective will of the European & Nordic nations, China, Japan and other Asian and middle east countries, to stop the financial demise of America. The middle powers, are now ring fencing their own economies and forming their own military alliances, while excluding America.
But 77 million Americans voted for this idiot, so they will be reaping what they have sown.
Yes thanks. Watching your neighbour self-own into oblivion sure is something to see. 🍿
I hope it turns out exactly as you have suggested Fred! In the meantime, I feel so so for our American neighbours :( Let's hope the orange ball doesn't send random bombs in our direction because he is capable of pretty much ANYTHING!
Excellent analysis — GO canada 🇨🇦 that Pedo Prez started his fascist fucks on. Your cunstitution needs a massive do over, allowing Nazism to take over like it has so quick.
Fred, I'm not sure anybody wins. Canada may be in a better place to sell oil and gas but we are limited by our capacity to transport our oil and gas and frankly, even extracting much more oil in the short term may not be possible. Again we will ending up selling that energy to the US who will be the ones making a big profit they don’t deserve.
Really, if there is an oil boom in Canada, the oil sector may be thriving, oil/energy companies will generate higher profits, governments may bring a bit more money to the treasury but it is not the Canadian public in general that will pay more for everything from higher interest rates, to gasoline to food that will benefit from the manna. The boom in the energy sector will not be enough to sustain the Canadian economy overall. The economy may actually shrink and that would cost governments by reducing revenues, increasing expenditures for employment insurance and other social programs. It may also impact our ability to fund the infrastructure and military projects we are planning. We will see our deficit increase and the cost to service the debt will also increase significantly. Canada may have better margins but the impact could be severe.
Europe and Asia may also have to ration oil, gas and electricity for many months to stretch the available energy supply available to them. The price of energy may continue to climb and go through the roof, this could lead to a worldwide recession.
I guess I'm not as optimistic as you are but time will tell.