Very scary times, indeed. If US follows Trump and attacks Iran’s power grid facilities and then Iran retaliates and bombs more of Gulf countries’ energy assets, then the world could be facing a prolonged energy crisis. The elevated energy prices and also restriction of fertilizer shipments from the Gulf region will more than likely lead to an extended worldwide recession. Canada can benefit somewhat from higher energy related revenues but the pain felt in the general economy will be immense. Not sure where this is all heading but it certainly isn’t anywhere good.
While your column makes it sound like this puts Canada in a good position, the reality is that it is only the American run Canadian companies that produce LNG and the provincial governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan who will make out like bandits. It's us poor work-a-day Canadians who will be paying the higher prices for natural gas to heat our houses and for gasoline to drive our cars.
I think BC should see some benefit as well. However you are coming in thinking that the average person will see little benefit. Yes the countries GDP will grow but, the benefits will not be felt evenly across the country, whereas the higher prices will.
However this will raise Canada’s profile and maybe lead to other investments. Defence spending will probably benefit central Canada manufacturing sector to some degree.
The federal government is paid in a variety of ways, including corporate tax and carbon tax, as well as a passthrough gain on revenue sharing as provinces need less support. The Feds gain on oil via TMX, where they charge tolls for its use and interest for the funds to build it from the crown corporation that owns and operates it. All these funds allow the federal government to support citizens nationwide, even the poor work-a-day folks.
No carbon tax currently. Oil royalty revenue is provincial revenue (provinces own the resources) not Federal. I believe the Federal government owns TMX so yes they would collect the tolls. Main benefit federally would be tax revenue on companies. Also income tax revenue on the new jobs created to support the LNG industry.
There is no consumer facing carbon tax because people driving gas guzzlers didn't think it was fair. There is certainly a robust business carbon tax, currently at $115/ton. I agree the Provinces own the resource and that's why I didn't say the Feds did. However, the Federal government collects income tax from the oil business and any other profitable business and pays less to the provinces as their revenue increases. As you've agreed there is federal revenue from TMX at three different levels. As I agree, income tax revenue is collected from all those working.
I hope it turns out exactly as you have suggested Fred! In the meantime, I feel so so sad for our American neighbours :( Let's hope the orange ball doesn't send random bombs in our direction because he is capable of pretty much ANYTHING!
Remember Justin Trudeau insisting in 2022 there was no business case for LNG exports from the East Coast when Germany came asking?
He was a school teacher who really had no interest in economics, let alone understand it. If Canada had moved ahead in mid 2022 to supply LNG to the EU, just what would our economic prospects look like now?
And soon oil will be traded in local currencies, Euros or Yuan, not US dollars. The US dollar will cease to be the world's reserve currency. This will put further economic stress on the US economy, resulting in less money to service the national debt, thereby increasing the need to raise interest rates, so as not to default on the national debt repayments and be downgraded to a Bb debtor by Moody's.
And while Trump is president, I do not believe there is the collective will of the European & Nordic nations, China, Japan and other Asian and middle east countries, to stop the financial demise of America. The middle powers, are now ring fencing their own economies and forming their own military alliances, while excluding America.
But 77 million Americans voted for this idiot, so they will be reaping what they have sown.
I don’t think it’s possible for any group of countries to prevent the US financial demise. That demise will inflict economic damage on the western world that is already tied in to the dollar. We in the western world hold a-lot of US debt so defaulting will hurt all the countries you mentioned as they hold some portion of that debt. We are going to have a world wide recession or depression probably unavoidable already.
🇨🇦💙 Carney has been saying from the get go - Canada is a rules based, stable trading partner. How sweet those words must sound to global leaders right now. Bonus Round #1: Canada sells 41% of global potash. Bonus Round #2:Thanks to Justin Trudeau Canadian taxpayers own the Trans Canada pipeline. Bonus Round #3: LNG in Kitimat, B.C., loaded its first cargo in June 2025, marking the start of LNG exports, projected to be 15–25 million tons per year by 2030. WE THE NORTH 🦬
Fred, I'm not sure anybody wins. Canada may be in a better place to sell oil and gas but we are limited by our capacity to transport our oil and gas and frankly, even extracting much more oil in the short term may not be possible. Again we will ending up selling that energy to the US who will be the ones making a big profit they don’t deserve.
Really, if there is an oil boom in Canada, the oil sector may be thriving, oil/energy companies will generate higher profits, governments may bring a bit more money to the treasury but it is not the Canadian public in general that will pay more for everything from higher interest rates, to gasoline to food that will benefit from the manna. The boom in the energy sector will not be enough to sustain the Canadian economy overall. The economy may actually shrink and that would cost governments by reducing revenues, increasing expenditures for employment insurance and other social programs. It may also impact our ability to fund the infrastructure and military projects we are planning. We will see our deficit increase and the cost to service the debt will also increase significantly. Canada may have better margins but the impact could be severe.
Europe and Asia may also have to ration oil, gas and electricity for many months to stretch the available energy supply available to them. The price of energy may continue to climb and go through the roof, this could lead to a worldwide recession.
I guess I'm not as optimistic as you are but time will tell.
It’s LNG that has opportunity and several projects are being built already. Only one is complete so far but it is shipping LNG. Unless we can transport oil by rail oil (which is an option at higher prices) then we could probably output more oil.
Although I agree that world wide recession is coming.
It also makes us an attractive target for a SprayTan invasion. Get your firearm licence while you still can. Buy rifles in common calibres like .223 or .308 and stock up ammo.
Fred — this is a sharp and engaging framing, but I think it overstates both Europe’s room to manoeuvre and the degree to which the U.S. is “boxed in.”
A few points where I’d tighten the argument:
**1) Europe is not a clean winner from energy shocks**
Higher gas prices don’t just justify tighter policy — they also **erode industrial competitiveness**. Europe’s exposure to imported energy means that what strengthens the ECB’s hand on inflation simultaneously weakens growth. That’s not a free trade; it’s a balancing act. If anything, Europe is *managing a loss*, not “cashing in.”
**2) Rate differentials ≠ automatic capital flight**
Capital does follow yield — but only after **risk, liquidity, and reserve status** are priced in. U.S. Treasuries remain the global safe asset, especially in wartime conditions. So even if European rates edge higher, it doesn’t automatically trigger a structural shift away from the dollar. We’ve seen this movie before — and the dollar tends to strengthen in periods of geopolitical stress, not weaken.
**3) The Fed is constrained — but not uniquely so**
The Fed’s dilemma (inflation vs. growth vs. debt) is real, but it’s not exceptional. The ECB faces a similar trilemma, just with **less fiscal unity and more structural fragility**. Europe tightening into an energy shock carries its own risks of fragmentation.
**4) Canada’s position is strong — but long-cycle**
You’re right to highlight Canada. But most of the upside you describe is **front-loaded in narrative, back-loaded in delivery**. LNG capacity expansions take years, and global pricing will depend on how quickly disrupted supply (including Qatar) re-enters the market. This is a strategic opportunity — not an immediate windfall at scale.
**5) The missing piece: war spending recirculates**
“The U.S. pays, others profit” is too linear. A significant share of U.S. war spending **flows back into allied economies** (defence procurement, energy, financial markets). The system is more circular than zero-sum — especially within the transatlantic space.
---
**Where I think your core insight *does* hold:**
You’re right that **wars reprice assets and shift relative advantages**, and that energy disruptions can create **asymmetric gains** for producers and more disciplined monetary regimes.
But I’d frame it less as:
> *“America fights, others profit”*
and more as:
> **“America absorbs volatility, while allies selectively convert it into advantage.”**
That’s a subtler — but more durable — dynamic.
Because in the end, the question isn’t who profits in the short term.
It’s who can **sustain the system the longest** — financially, industrially, and politically.
Canada’s not in as good a position as your article might suggest. As the previous commenter pointed out, so many of the energy companies pulling product out of Canadian ground is not Canadian. And one of the provinces with product wants to join America.
Excellent analysis — GO canada 🇨🇦 that Pedo Prez started his fascist fucks on. Your cunstitution needs a massive do over, allowing Nazism to take over like it has so quick.
Very scary times, indeed. If US follows Trump and attacks Iran’s power grid facilities and then Iran retaliates and bombs more of Gulf countries’ energy assets, then the world could be facing a prolonged energy crisis. The elevated energy prices and also restriction of fertilizer shipments from the Gulf region will more than likely lead to an extended worldwide recession. Canada can benefit somewhat from higher energy related revenues but the pain felt in the general economy will be immense. Not sure where this is all heading but it certainly isn’t anywhere good.
While your column makes it sound like this puts Canada in a good position, the reality is that it is only the American run Canadian companies that produce LNG and the provincial governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan who will make out like bandits. It's us poor work-a-day Canadians who will be paying the higher prices for natural gas to heat our houses and for gasoline to drive our cars.
I think BC should see some benefit as well. However you are coming in thinking that the average person will see little benefit. Yes the countries GDP will grow but, the benefits will not be felt evenly across the country, whereas the higher prices will.
However this will raise Canada’s profile and maybe lead to other investments. Defence spending will probably benefit central Canada manufacturing sector to some degree.
The federal government is paid in a variety of ways, including corporate tax and carbon tax, as well as a passthrough gain on revenue sharing as provinces need less support. The Feds gain on oil via TMX, where they charge tolls for its use and interest for the funds to build it from the crown corporation that owns and operates it. All these funds allow the federal government to support citizens nationwide, even the poor work-a-day folks.
No carbon tax currently. Oil royalty revenue is provincial revenue (provinces own the resources) not Federal. I believe the Federal government owns TMX so yes they would collect the tolls. Main benefit federally would be tax revenue on companies. Also income tax revenue on the new jobs created to support the LNG industry.
There is no consumer facing carbon tax because people driving gas guzzlers didn't think it was fair. There is certainly a robust business carbon tax, currently at $115/ton. I agree the Provinces own the resource and that's why I didn't say the Feds did. However, the Federal government collects income tax from the oil business and any other profitable business and pays less to the provinces as their revenue increases. As you've agreed there is federal revenue from TMX at three different levels. As I agree, income tax revenue is collected from all those working.
I would dispute that the current pricing on the industrial carbon tax is robust, otherwise I would agree.
I hope it turns out exactly as you have suggested Fred! In the meantime, I feel so so sad for our American neighbours :( Let's hope the orange ball doesn't send random bombs in our direction because he is capable of pretty much ANYTHING!
Thank goodness Carney is in the seat.
Remember Justin Trudeau insisting in 2022 there was no business case for LNG exports from the East Coast when Germany came asking?
He was a school teacher who really had no interest in economics, let alone understand it. If Canada had moved ahead in mid 2022 to supply LNG to the EU, just what would our economic prospects look like now?
And soon oil will be traded in local currencies, Euros or Yuan, not US dollars. The US dollar will cease to be the world's reserve currency. This will put further economic stress on the US economy, resulting in less money to service the national debt, thereby increasing the need to raise interest rates, so as not to default on the national debt repayments and be downgraded to a Bb debtor by Moody's.
And while Trump is president, I do not believe there is the collective will of the European & Nordic nations, China, Japan and other Asian and middle east countries, to stop the financial demise of America. The middle powers, are now ring fencing their own economies and forming their own military alliances, while excluding America.
But 77 million Americans voted for this idiot, so they will be reaping what they have sown.
I don’t think it’s possible for any group of countries to prevent the US financial demise. That demise will inflict economic damage on the western world that is already tied in to the dollar. We in the western world hold a-lot of US debt so defaulting will hurt all the countries you mentioned as they hold some portion of that debt. We are going to have a world wide recession or depression probably unavoidable already.
Yes thanks. Watching your neighbour self-own into oblivion sure is something to see. 🍿
🇨🇦💙 Carney has been saying from the get go - Canada is a rules based, stable trading partner. How sweet those words must sound to global leaders right now. Bonus Round #1: Canada sells 41% of global potash. Bonus Round #2:Thanks to Justin Trudeau Canadian taxpayers own the Trans Canada pipeline. Bonus Round #3: LNG in Kitimat, B.C., loaded its first cargo in June 2025, marking the start of LNG exports, projected to be 15–25 million tons per year by 2030. WE THE NORTH 🦬
Fred, I'm not sure anybody wins. Canada may be in a better place to sell oil and gas but we are limited by our capacity to transport our oil and gas and frankly, even extracting much more oil in the short term may not be possible. Again we will ending up selling that energy to the US who will be the ones making a big profit they don’t deserve.
Really, if there is an oil boom in Canada, the oil sector may be thriving, oil/energy companies will generate higher profits, governments may bring a bit more money to the treasury but it is not the Canadian public in general that will pay more for everything from higher interest rates, to gasoline to food that will benefit from the manna. The boom in the energy sector will not be enough to sustain the Canadian economy overall. The economy may actually shrink and that would cost governments by reducing revenues, increasing expenditures for employment insurance and other social programs. It may also impact our ability to fund the infrastructure and military projects we are planning. We will see our deficit increase and the cost to service the debt will also increase significantly. Canada may have better margins but the impact could be severe.
Europe and Asia may also have to ration oil, gas and electricity for many months to stretch the available energy supply available to them. The price of energy may continue to climb and go through the roof, this could lead to a worldwide recession.
I guess I'm not as optimistic as you are but time will tell.
It’s LNG that has opportunity and several projects are being built already. Only one is complete so far but it is shipping LNG. Unless we can transport oil by rail oil (which is an option at higher prices) then we could probably output more oil.
Although I agree that world wide recession is coming.
It also makes us an attractive target for a SprayTan invasion. Get your firearm licence while you still can. Buy rifles in common calibres like .223 or .308 and stock up ammo.
https://rcmp.ca/en/firearms/apply-firearms-licence
Fred — this is a sharp and engaging framing, but I think it overstates both Europe’s room to manoeuvre and the degree to which the U.S. is “boxed in.”
A few points where I’d tighten the argument:
**1) Europe is not a clean winner from energy shocks**
Higher gas prices don’t just justify tighter policy — they also **erode industrial competitiveness**. Europe’s exposure to imported energy means that what strengthens the ECB’s hand on inflation simultaneously weakens growth. That’s not a free trade; it’s a balancing act. If anything, Europe is *managing a loss*, not “cashing in.”
**2) Rate differentials ≠ automatic capital flight**
Capital does follow yield — but only after **risk, liquidity, and reserve status** are priced in. U.S. Treasuries remain the global safe asset, especially in wartime conditions. So even if European rates edge higher, it doesn’t automatically trigger a structural shift away from the dollar. We’ve seen this movie before — and the dollar tends to strengthen in periods of geopolitical stress, not weaken.
**3) The Fed is constrained — but not uniquely so**
The Fed’s dilemma (inflation vs. growth vs. debt) is real, but it’s not exceptional. The ECB faces a similar trilemma, just with **less fiscal unity and more structural fragility**. Europe tightening into an energy shock carries its own risks of fragmentation.
**4) Canada’s position is strong — but long-cycle**
You’re right to highlight Canada. But most of the upside you describe is **front-loaded in narrative, back-loaded in delivery**. LNG capacity expansions take years, and global pricing will depend on how quickly disrupted supply (including Qatar) re-enters the market. This is a strategic opportunity — not an immediate windfall at scale.
**5) The missing piece: war spending recirculates**
“The U.S. pays, others profit” is too linear. A significant share of U.S. war spending **flows back into allied economies** (defence procurement, energy, financial markets). The system is more circular than zero-sum — especially within the transatlantic space.
---
**Where I think your core insight *does* hold:**
You’re right that **wars reprice assets and shift relative advantages**, and that energy disruptions can create **asymmetric gains** for producers and more disciplined monetary regimes.
But I’d frame it less as:
> *“America fights, others profit”*
and more as:
> **“America absorbs volatility, while allies selectively convert it into advantage.”**
That’s a subtler — but more durable — dynamic.
Because in the end, the question isn’t who profits in the short term.
It’s who can **sustain the system the longest** — financially, industrially, and politically.
Canada’s not in as good a position as your article might suggest. As the previous commenter pointed out, so many of the energy companies pulling product out of Canadian ground is not Canadian. And one of the provinces with product wants to join America.
Excellent analysis — GO canada 🇨🇦 that Pedo Prez started his fascist fucks on. Your cunstitution needs a massive do over, allowing Nazism to take over like it has so quick.
Through Manitoba. Need some railway and port upgrades. Port upgrades are in the works, not sure about railway.
I didn’t know Sask had Oil Sands. Interesting.