And it'll be no trouble at all running a pipeline through a foreign country to endanger its pristine, priceless widerness with bitumen spill that will last at least a few generations. So more pipekines south to Texas, the Yanks only.too happy to accept even more.oil, at significant discount. It's pretty obvious the Leavers are intent on joining the MAGA America as a useful territory with promises of statehood - until the oil runs out - as a first piece in the absorption of Canada. I guess you xould calk it foreign interference.
Ron, I actually wrote something along your lines and then deleted it, thinking it might be too over-the-top beyond what Fred's posting was going. But I'm very glad you had the courage to write it!
I don't want to say the separatist/legitimate grievance folks are being manipulated here -- but I honestly think they are! Instead of getting resolution to their concerns, they will find themselves dragged into the cesspool of what's happening State-side, with none of the things that AB takes for granted in the Canadian system (maybe they are okay with the trade-offs?? Get used to no universal health care and lots of guns in your schools . . . .)
Anyway to the bigger point: YES, definitely foreign interference -- the separatist leadership actually bragged about the secret meeting(s) in DC in the SCIF room ("Sensitive Compartmentalized Information Facility" - the most top secret of secret meetings. No cellphones or computers allowed in, etc.) and the promise of US$500Billion to help finance an independent AB (or State 51, or whatever).
And Fred also hit the nail on the head in his reply to you -- at best, AB becomes "Texas North" but not really as much of an equal partner.
And again, I'm not sure they will be able to -- all AB land is treaty land relating to federal agreements. This won't be a clean divorce. At best, maybe they get a bottom corner of the province . . . .
The USA is the reason Keystone XL was canceled. Many states that a pipeline would have to pass through do not want a pipeline. So it’s not gonna be easy
And the TRULY sad part is that not one single complaint they voice is based on anything close to factual. If it wasn’t for the Canadian government propping up and underwriting Alberta debt, by 1930 after only 25 years of existing the province would have been bankrupt. The Canadian government built the oil sands before handing to off to companies that could expand it. They built the railroad to pull all of Canada together. They invested billions of dollars to keep Alberta afloat and functioning and lies and idiocy and made a scapegoat for everything various Alberta governments have screwed up themselves.
History is more complicated than political slogans...
and Canada has invested heavily in every province at different times, just as provinces have contributed back in different ways.
I think the bigger issue now is figuring out how to lower the temperature and deal with real grievances before anger gets turned into something much harder to control.
Great post Fred! Seems like DS wants to have her cake & eat it here! Go away bwitch! Sureeee we'll give a separatist bunch Canada's pensions, passports, does she want free toilet paper too? Then there's the Native factor... once separated, can't Indigenous peoples say "get off our land, we shared with Canadians, not a bunch of bigots!!!" Housing for some of our Native population will be readily available, for FREE! See ya Danielle, don't let the door kick you in the ayasssssssssss on the way out! That's how I see it today haha
You are exactly right Fred! WE, the rest of the current Canadians, need this BS to stop & as Kinew mentioned awhile back, you wanna leave Canada? Pack your bags & go! Byeeeeeeee haha
Great article Fred! While I hate the thought of Alberta separation, I believe in the “All or None” theory; you are either all in for remaining in Canada or all out with regard to any ties including passports, etcetera.
Heh Heh, yes, like Brexit, if Alberta actually does pass a referendum to secede (would be the second one, I guess, if the first one passes), we would be in for some very thorny/interesting times!
Passports: Ironically the way things stand at the moment, they probably could claim a right to retain it. Presently, Canada has to consider anyone with familial ties going back generations. And I would think everyone in AB would be able to make such a claim easier than many American applicants, at the moment.
But while that would make them dual-citizens, that doesn't automatically mean dual-benefits. For example, I don't believe that they could just cross the border into SK, BC, or NT/NU and get full health benefits (I believe that "Americans" who now can get a Cdn passport are required to pay something into the system for health care (or provide their own insurance/funding). I could be wrong on this, though).
And the pension stuff (CPP) will get thorny. At a broad stroke, I suspect that actuarily, CPPIB would pay out a "present value of contributions of AB workers" at a specific date -- and by pay out, I mean transfer it to an ABPP or whatever. And then that's it -- no future CPP benefit.
But this is all getting into the weeds - it's not a simple "okay we've left - now we want to still be part of confederation somehow, sort-of like UK with EU" (where somethings they have worked out some special arrangements that are much like they never left -- but that's certainly not the case with many things (including immigration, investment, currency, etc.).
And the big one is the whole Indigenous Treaty issue -- as that was arrangements with Dominion of Canada for the vast Rupert's Land area - that was then later subdivided into the current prairie provinces and territories. So hence it's not even clear if AB per se can just "go" and take everything with them -- chiefly because they had not "contributed" the geographical area in the first place!
Lots of lawyers could make a ton of money on this -- it will take decades to sort out!
But as the UK discovered with Brexit -- NONE of the "simple assertions" that the likes of Lafarge and Johnson (et al) happened, over a decade or so of complete grief/stalled economy, etc. and -- most importantly -- no pathway to undo the damage (for example, if UK were to apply to rejoin the EU (and frankly right now, Canada would have a better shake at getting fast-tracked for membership), they would lose the Pound as their currency and would have to adopt the euro). I could see the same for AB.
Oh, I forgot a big comment about the passport bit: Canada taxes citizens on WORLDWIDE income, with the understanding that the taxpayer would get a foreign tax credit for "local tax paid" outside of Canada. But for that last part to happen, The Republic of AB would have to negotiate a reciprocal tax treaty with Canada -- without that, then double-taxation will happen (if they have grievance right now about "paying in to rest of Canada", it will hurt doubly so in this case. The obvious answer is to forgo the Canadian Passport (problem goes away) -- but so does one of the separatist talking points, that is important for mollifying much of the AB electorate.
Well said, as always. I certainly hope that Alberta stays and is willing to go through the exercise of working WITH Ottawa to tackle the issues that Albertans want to have tackled in order to convince them that staying is better than leaving.
The best option is the one Alberta didn’t even try. I say this as an Albertan. They yell and scream all day, but are unwilling do anything other than be unreasonable and demand that they get to force other provinces to accept what Alberta wants.
Alberta has horrible politicians. The current conservative parties in this country seem to be afraid not just of hard work, but any real work at all. I don’t have high hopes without new leadership. The UPC is a lost cause and the CPC need a total reconstruction to accomplish any thing the is hard or will involve compromise.
I agree, but here in Ontario we don't have anything better either; Dung Ford is giving taxpayers' money to private clinics while he starves public healthcare of their rightful due. Which is a violation of the Canada Health Act. He has underfunded education more and more, the longer he is in power. He is also making choices to benefit only his wealthy cronies, not the people of Ontario. It's disgusting.
I have heard that the economic lost is estimated to be 8 - 12 percent drop in GDP since Brexit. I would expect worse for Alberta and if separation could even happen it would take decades and at that point oil demand with look incredibly different than it does now, and I am not convinced that oil demand will continue to increase pass 2030, if anything I think is will decline by that point.
And it'll be no trouble at all running a pipeline through a foreign country to endanger its pristine, priceless widerness with bitumen spill that will last at least a few generations. So more pipekines south to Texas, the Yanks only.too happy to accept even more.oil, at significant discount. It's pretty obvious the Leavers are intent on joining the MAGA America as a useful territory with promises of statehood - until the oil runs out - as a first piece in the absorption of Canada. I guess you xould calk it foreign interference.
That’s the uncomfortable question, Ron... separation into what exactly?
True independence... or dependency wearing a different hat?
Smaller players rarely dictate terms to bigger neighbours, especially when pipelines, trade, and geography hold the cards.
Ron, I actually wrote something along your lines and then deleted it, thinking it might be too over-the-top beyond what Fred's posting was going. But I'm very glad you had the courage to write it!
I don't want to say the separatist/legitimate grievance folks are being manipulated here -- but I honestly think they are! Instead of getting resolution to their concerns, they will find themselves dragged into the cesspool of what's happening State-side, with none of the things that AB takes for granted in the Canadian system (maybe they are okay with the trade-offs?? Get used to no universal health care and lots of guns in your schools . . . .)
Anyway to the bigger point: YES, definitely foreign interference -- the separatist leadership actually bragged about the secret meeting(s) in DC in the SCIF room ("Sensitive Compartmentalized Information Facility" - the most top secret of secret meetings. No cellphones or computers allowed in, etc.) and the promise of US$500Billion to help finance an independent AB (or State 51, or whatever).
And Fred also hit the nail on the head in his reply to you -- at best, AB becomes "Texas North" but not really as much of an equal partner.
And again, I'm not sure they will be able to -- all AB land is treaty land relating to federal agreements. This won't be a clean divorce. At best, maybe they get a bottom corner of the province . . . .
You raise an uncomfortable point, Grant.
Legitimate grievances are real... but history shows frustration can be redirected into something much bigger than people originally signed up for.
And you’re right… separation wouldn’t be a clean, simple handshake.
The legal, treaty, economic, and geographic realities make this far messier than slogans suggest.
The USA is the reason Keystone XL was canceled. Many states that a pipeline would have to pass through do not want a pipeline. So it’s not gonna be easy
And the TRULY sad part is that not one single complaint they voice is based on anything close to factual. If it wasn’t for the Canadian government propping up and underwriting Alberta debt, by 1930 after only 25 years of existing the province would have been bankrupt. The Canadian government built the oil sands before handing to off to companies that could expand it. They built the railroad to pull all of Canada together. They invested billions of dollars to keep Alberta afloat and functioning and lies and idiocy and made a scapegoat for everything various Alberta governments have screwed up themselves.
You make an important point, Alexis.
History is more complicated than political slogans...
and Canada has invested heavily in every province at different times, just as provinces have contributed back in different ways.
I think the bigger issue now is figuring out how to lower the temperature and deal with real grievances before anger gets turned into something much harder to control.
We can probably say the same about LNG as well.
Great post Fred! Seems like DS wants to have her cake & eat it here! Go away bwitch! Sureeee we'll give a separatist bunch Canada's pensions, passports, does she want free toilet paper too? Then there's the Native factor... once separated, can't Indigenous peoples say "get off our land, we shared with Canadians, not a bunch of bigots!!!" Housing for some of our Native population will be readily available, for FREE! See ya Danielle, don't let the door kick you in the ayasssssssssss on the way out! That's how I see it today haha
Haha… I can definitely hear your frustration, Patsy 😄
The Indigenous treaty issue alone makes this far more complicated than some people are pretending.
Whatever side people land on, this isn’t something that gets solved with slogans and wishful thinking.
You are exactly right Fred! WE, the rest of the current Canadians, need this BS to stop & as Kinew mentioned awhile back, you wanna leave Canada? Pack your bags & go! Byeeeeeeee haha
I think that Albertans need to stop it. Otherwise the separatists will just keep blaming everyone else, instead of facing reality.
You are correct Kalyrn, now, just tell that to Miss DS please :)
I want to quit my bank but keep their money.
😂 That may be the shortest summary of the whole debate yet, StrongHeart.
“I’m leaving… but I’ll still take the perks” is a tough sell in any relationship.
Great article Fred! While I hate the thought of Alberta separation, I believe in the “All or None” theory; you are either all in for remaining in Canada or all out with regard to any ties including passports, etcetera.
Thanks Scott.
I understand the logic...
If someone truly wants separation, eventually the hard question becomes... what comes with it, and what doesn’t?
The problem right now is too much of the debate sounds like “all the upside, none of the trade-offs.”
Canadians deserve a more honest conversation than that.
Heh Heh, yes, like Brexit, if Alberta actually does pass a referendum to secede (would be the second one, I guess, if the first one passes), we would be in for some very thorny/interesting times!
Passports: Ironically the way things stand at the moment, they probably could claim a right to retain it. Presently, Canada has to consider anyone with familial ties going back generations. And I would think everyone in AB would be able to make such a claim easier than many American applicants, at the moment.
But while that would make them dual-citizens, that doesn't automatically mean dual-benefits. For example, I don't believe that they could just cross the border into SK, BC, or NT/NU and get full health benefits (I believe that "Americans" who now can get a Cdn passport are required to pay something into the system for health care (or provide their own insurance/funding). I could be wrong on this, though).
And the pension stuff (CPP) will get thorny. At a broad stroke, I suspect that actuarily, CPPIB would pay out a "present value of contributions of AB workers" at a specific date -- and by pay out, I mean transfer it to an ABPP or whatever. And then that's it -- no future CPP benefit.
But this is all getting into the weeds - it's not a simple "okay we've left - now we want to still be part of confederation somehow, sort-of like UK with EU" (where somethings they have worked out some special arrangements that are much like they never left -- but that's certainly not the case with many things (including immigration, investment, currency, etc.).
And the big one is the whole Indigenous Treaty issue -- as that was arrangements with Dominion of Canada for the vast Rupert's Land area - that was then later subdivided into the current prairie provinces and territories. So hence it's not even clear if AB per se can just "go" and take everything with them -- chiefly because they had not "contributed" the geographical area in the first place!
Lots of lawyers could make a ton of money on this -- it will take decades to sort out!
But as the UK discovered with Brexit -- NONE of the "simple assertions" that the likes of Lafarge and Johnson (et al) happened, over a decade or so of complete grief/stalled economy, etc. and -- most importantly -- no pathway to undo the damage (for example, if UK were to apply to rejoin the EU (and frankly right now, Canada would have a better shake at getting fast-tracked for membership), they would lose the Pound as their currency and would have to adopt the euro). I could see the same for AB.
Oh, I forgot a big comment about the passport bit: Canada taxes citizens on WORLDWIDE income, with the understanding that the taxpayer would get a foreign tax credit for "local tax paid" outside of Canada. But for that last part to happen, The Republic of AB would have to negotiate a reciprocal tax treaty with Canada -- without that, then double-taxation will happen (if they have grievance right now about "paying in to rest of Canada", it will hurt doubly so in this case. The obvious answer is to forgo the Canadian Passport (problem goes away) -- but so does one of the separatist talking points, that is important for mollifying much of the AB electorate.
You raise a good point, Grant...
once people start digging into the mechanics, this gets complicated fast.
Brexit is probably the closest modern reminder that political slogans are much simpler than legal reality.
Treaties, pensions, taxation, healthcare, borders, Indigenous agreements, trade… none of that gets sorted over a weekend.
That’s partly why I keep coming back to the same concern... people deserve the full fine print, not just the sales brochure.
Well said, as always. I certainly hope that Alberta stays and is willing to go through the exercise of working WITH Ottawa to tackle the issues that Albertans want to have tackled in order to convince them that staying is better than leaving.
Thank you, Leslie.
I think that’s where most Canadians are... frustrated maybe, but still wanting solutions more than divorce.
Alberta has legitimate concerns, but the best outcome is still sitting at the same table and fixing what isn’t working.
Countries don’t get stronger by threatening the exits every few years.
The best option is the one Alberta didn’t even try. I say this as an Albertan. They yell and scream all day, but are unwilling do anything other than be unreasonable and demand that they get to force other provinces to accept what Alberta wants.
Alberta has horrible politicians. The current conservative parties in this country seem to be afraid not just of hard work, but any real work at all. I don’t have high hopes without new leadership. The UPC is a lost cause and the CPC need a total reconstruction to accomplish any thing the is hard or will involve compromise.
I agree, but here in Ontario we don't have anything better either; Dung Ford is giving taxpayers' money to private clinics while he starves public healthcare of their rightful due. Which is a violation of the Canada Health Act. He has underfunded education more and more, the longer he is in power. He is also making choices to benefit only his wealthy cronies, not the people of Ontario. It's disgusting.
PLEASE. NOT ALL ALBERTAN. TIRED OF BEING PAINTED WITH THE BROAD STROKES WHEN MORE NUANCED DESCRIPTIONS ARE REQUIRED!
Fair point, Barb... and you’re absolutely right to say it.
Not all Albertans think alike, just like not all Canadians do.
There are millions of Albertans who want solutions inside Canada, not outside it.
Nuance matters here.
Whether we in Alberta like it or not, our premiere has made the bed and we all have to lie in it.
I hate DS and the UPC and believe they are actively trying to destroy what most Albertans want Alberta to be.
The old “having your cake and eating it” trick!
Look at Brexit - I don’t believe any measurements show that Britain is better of that they were 10 years ago pre Brexit!
Beware Alberta!
I have heard that the economic lost is estimated to be 8 - 12 percent drop in GDP since Brexit. I would expect worse for Alberta and if separation could even happen it would take decades and at that point oil demand with look incredibly different than it does now, and I am not convinced that oil demand will continue to increase pass 2030, if anything I think is will decline by that point.